Iran's crude exports have traced one of the more dramatic arcs in oil markets. This week's chart maps that journey from the promise of the 2015 nuclear deal to the collapse that followed and the tentative signs of recovery now emerging in the latest data from June 2026.
The high point came in 2017, when Iran was pumping close to 2.5 million barrels per day under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
That changed suddenly in May 2018, when the US withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed sweeping sanctions. Exports fell sharply. When Washington designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a Foreign Terrorist Organisation in April 2019, the pressure intensified further. By mid-2019, shipments had collapsed to a fraction of their peak.
A partial recovery followed as Iranian oil found its way to Chinese refiners. By 2025, exports had climbed back to an average of 1.68 million barrels per day. Then, in October 2025, Iran ended the JCPOA. And in February 2026, war began.
The impact was immediate and severe. Exports dropped from around 2.2 million barrels per day in late February to 1.84 million bpd by March, before bottoming out at about 1.47 million bpd in April – a steep fall in a matter of weeks.
June has brought the first signs of stabilisation and a significant policy shift. On June 22, the US Treasury issued General Licence X, a 60-day waiver running through August 21 that authorises the production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products, including transactions settled in US dollars for the first time in more than four decades. The licence could unlock a floating inventory of around 67 million barrels of Iranian crude stranded in the Gulf, worth an estimated $8 billion to $9 billion. It is contingent on Iran maintaining free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and permitting IAEA inspectors back into the country.
Iran can probably restore a substantial portion of its lost exports within 60 days but is unlikely to reach maximum capacity, with more than 80 energy-related sites damaged during the conflict and now requiring repair and testing. “Even if technical production capacity exists, restoring market confidence takes time,” Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at Chatham House, said.
Iran's production base and inventories can support a ramp-up, Sumit Ritolia, senior oil refining analyst at Kpler, said, with refining runs around 2.3 to 2.4 million barrels per day. However, damage to wells complicates a swift return to prior highs.
Additional reporting: Jennifer Gnana
