The shipping of oil, gas and other commodities would take months to normalise – even if the Strait of Hormuz fully opens tomorrow, analysts have said.
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler suggests there would be a phased recovery from May to September, depending on vessel type, if Iran lost or surrendered its grip on the chokepoint and allowed free passage.
The Pentagon has told members of the House Armed Services Committee that clearing Iranian mines could take up to six months after any peace deal is implemented. Officials said Iran may have placed more than 20 GPS-guided devices in the waterway that would be difficult to locate.
Matt Wright, principal freight analyst at Kpler, said that if sea mines have been laid, they would probably be in a limited area. During the 1990s Gulf War, US coalition forces had access to a map to clear mines laid by Iraqi forces. “It's unclear whether there is a map this time,” Mr Wright said.
Current scenario
The strait is currently in a restricted and controlled phase, according to Kpler’s assessment. “Iran has near complete control over the strait and is allowing vessels to transit only through permission,” Mr Wright said.
Even ships from countries considered relatively friendly to Tehran, including India and Pakistan, are not moving freely. Two container ships were seized within 24 hours this week, and one was escorted north into Iranian waters.
International shipowner association Bimco flagged an email scam this week, pointing out that entities claiming to be Iranian authorities have been exacting tolls from operators.
“The fact that ships were attacked following apparent Iranian approval to transit underscores the complexity and volatility of the current security situation,” said Jakob Larsen, Bimco’s chief safety and security officer. Kpler’s recovery scenarios are only possible if Iran agrees to unrestricted movement through the strait with no tolls involved.
Phased recovery
If US-Iran ceasefire talks lead to unhindered passage through the strait from early May, the recovery would happen gradually across four phases. Kpler’s assessment does not forecast the strait will re-open this month, Mr Wright said.
The initial phase would involve the transit of hundreds of vessels that have been trapped inside the Gulf for two months. “The exit of these vessels shouldn't be mistaken for the strait being back to full confidence,” Mr Wright said.
The real signal comes in the subsequent ‘watch and wait phase’, when ships begin voluntarily re-entering to load cargoes. “It's the re-entries that are the real test of what's going on,” he said.
Tankers and dry bulk: July
The early movers, according to Kpler data, would be tankers and dry-bulk carriers, both projected to recover close to 100 per cent of prewar Middle East Gulf export capacity by early July. Dry bulk benefits from lower cargo values and higher owners' risk tolerance.
Tankers, despite carrying high-value cargo, will be quicker to exit after months of being stranded. Their recovery rates may be higher than originally predicted. Both segments could begin meaningful re-entry in May and pick up pace through June.
Containers: August
Mr Wright expects major container liner companies to be cautious, with a lag of four to six weeks before there is enough confidence for them to cross the strait.
These companies have experience dealing with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in 2023. Kpler data suggests container ship transits would only reach 50 per cent of normal capacity in July and return to normal by August.
LNG carriers: September
Liquefied natural gas carriers will be the last to return to normality, with full capacity not expected until September. “It is one of the most expensive commercial vessels,” Mr Wright said. “The insurance risk is very, very high, and as a result, they have a much lower risk tolerance.”
