More gas discoveries expected in Turkey after $30bn reserve find

Ankara aims to increase domestic production to meet growing demand

Fatih, a deepwater drillship, continues its exploration activities in Turkey. Anadolu via Getty Images

More gas discoveries are expected in Turkey after the country announced a new reserve as Ankara looks to expand its domestic production, according to experts.

Turkey on Saturday said a new gas reserve was discovered in the Black Sea with 75 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas and an economic value of about $30 billion. It was found in the Goktepe-3 well at a depth of 3,500 metres.

The reserve is expected to meet Turkey’s home gas needs for three and a half years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday.

“It is expected that further exploration efforts (both for conventional and unconventional gas) will result in additional discoveries and will help reducing Turkey’s import dependency,” Sohbet Karbuz, director of natural resources and energy security at Paris based Mediterranean Association for Energy told The National.

The phase-1 of the Sakarya field development is being completed, with production from 12 wells reaching almost 10 million cubic metres (mcm) a day.

“Phase-2 will bring the total production to 20 mcm per day next year. By 2028, the production from the field is expected to reach the plateau level of 40 mcm per day, which is equivalent to around 14 bcm per year,” he added.

The latest find comes after the country revealed another field in the Black Sea with a gas reserve of 320 bcm in 2020.

“The new field is not as big as the Sakarya field which was discovered in 2020,” Robin Mills, chief executive of Qamar Energy told The National.

“It's reported as being at Goktepe, which was the name of the original wells in Sakarya, so it may be an additional discovery in the same field,” he said.

The new discovery is expected to make a “a useful contribution, especially as Turkey had almost no domestic production before Sakarya”, Mr Mills said.

Turkey, which imports more than 95 per cent of all the natural gas it needs, is pushing to reduce its reliance on external sources, Mr Karbuz said. It is seeking to boost supply security by developing domestic resources and expanding international partnerships in oil and gas exploration.

Last year, Turkey consumed 53 bcm of gas, with its own production only accounting for about 2.3 bcm. It imports gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran through pipelines. It also relies on liquefied natural gas from other countries.

Turkey on Saturday announced a new gas discovery in the Black Sea with a total reserve of 75 billion cubic metres of natural gas, according to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Reuters

The new discovery “enhances Turkey's energy security by providing a more stable and self-reliant energy supply, less susceptible to geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations”, Rania Gule, senior market analyst at brokerage firm XS.com, said.

It is also “likely to attract foreign direct investment and stimulate economic growth” as well as position “Turkey as a potential energy hub in the region, facilitating the transit of gas from neighboring countries to European markets through key pipelines like the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP)”.

Turkey is also creating new partnerships with other countries to diversify its supply chain.

Earlier this year, it signed an agreement with Turkmenistan to enable the flow of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey, Reuters reported, quoting Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.

It aims to buy up to 2 bcm of gas annually from Turkmenistan, with the gas expected to be transported through Iran's existing natural gas network.

A separate project to build a gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and further to Turkey is also being discussed as part of long-term co-operation between the countries.

Demand for natural gas has been continuing to rise globally as countries seek to cut emissions and reduce global warming.

Shell's 2025 LNG Outlook forecasts a 60 per cent increase in global demand for the fuel by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, emissions reductions in industry and transport, and the rise of AI.

The consumption of the fuel – considered a cleaner alternative to coal and crude oil – is expected to reach 630 million tonnes to 718 million tonnes a year by 2040, compared with 407 million tonnes last year, Shell said.