Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight downwards revision from last month’s forecast of 1.82 million bpd, according to the latest figures released in Opec’s monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
The December forecast reflects a reduction of 210,000 bpd – the largest of the five cuts Opec has made in its monthly reports since August, according to Reuters. In July, Opec had predicted world oil demand to jump by 2.25 million bpd.
The sluggish revision was largely driven by weaker-than-expected demand in the third quarter of 2024, particularly in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Americas, OECD Asia Pacific, China, India and other parts of Asia, the Middle East and Africa, Opec said in its report.
Despite the dip, total global oil demand is forecast to reach 105.5 million bpd in the October-December period, up 1.5 per cent on a quarterly basis, and 103.8 million bpd for the full year, up 1.6 per cent on an annual basis.
For 2025, oil demand growth is forecast at 1.4 million bpd, a slight downwards revision of 90,000 barrels per day. Key drivers of growth include demand for jet fuel, petrol and diesel, supported by strong activity in transport, construction and agriculture, the report said.
Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach an average of 105.3 million bpd for 2025, with fourth-quarter demand expected to rise to 106.9 million bpd.
Opec said robust US economic growth in 2024 is expected to continue into 2025, with healthy economic activity in the first quarter supporting the petrochemical sector.
“US economic activity is expected to be well supported by the services sector, which constitutes some 70 per cent of the US economy. Air travel and driving mobility are expected to remain healthy and support oil demand,” the report said.
After the report’s release, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, surged 1.75 per cent to $73.45, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, registered a jump of 2.29 per cent to $70.16 at 2pm New York time on Wednesday.
Bank of America, in its energy outlook report last month, said that macro fundamentals suggest markets in 2025 will be oversupplied for oil. The bank expects this oversupply to drive Brent to an average of $65 a barrel next year, down from about $80 so far this year. It predicts WTI at $61 a barrel in 2025.
Last week, Opec+ announced that it has extended its supply cuts until the end of 2026 and postponed planned output increases until April next year.
China to drive oil demand in 2025
China, one of the biggest consumer markets, is expected to remain the main driver of global oil demand. It currently accounts for nearly half of the world's petrochemical demand and ranks as the second-largest consumer of petrochemical feedstock globally, according to Opec.
Petrochemical demand in China is set to receive more support from accelerated infrastructure development and rising consumer demand for cosmetics, household plastics, pharmaceuticals and medical products. China’s petrochemical industry is also preparing for increased demand with plans for capacity expansions in the near term to ensure the country maintains its position as a global leader in petrochemical production.
“GDP growth in China is expected to remain robust, supported partly by the carry-over effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures introduced in September," Opec said. "The industrial sector and manufacturing activity are expected to be well supported as domestic consumption recovers, and demand for exports, particularly from developing countries, continues to expand."
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
ICC T20 Rankings
1. India - 270 ranking points
2. England - 265 points
3. Pakistan - 261 points
4. South Africa - 253 points
5. Australia - 251 points
6. New Zealand - 250 points
7. West Indies - 240 points
8. Bangladesh - 233 points
9. Sri Lanka - 230 points
10. Afghanistan - 226 points
Favourite book: ‘The Art of Learning’ by Josh Waitzkin
Favourite film: Marvel movies
Favourite parkour spot in Dubai: Residence towers in Jumeirah Beach Residence
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
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Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
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