Opec cuts 2024 oil demand forecast amid weaker quarterly data

China is expected to remain the main driver of global demand

Last week, Opec announced that it has extended its supply cuts until the end of 2026. Reuters

Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight downwards revision from last month’s forecast of 1.82 million bpd, according to the latest figures released in Opec’s monthly oil market report on Wednesday.

The December forecast reflects a reduction of 210,000 bpd – the largest of the five cuts Opec has made in its monthly reports since August, according to Reuters. In July, Opec had predicted world oil demand to jump by 2.25 million bpd.

The sluggish revision was largely driven by weaker-than-expected demand in the third quarter of 2024, particularly in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Americas, OECD Asia Pacific, China, India and other parts of Asia, the Middle East and Africa, Opec said in its report.

Despite the dip, total global oil demand is forecast to reach 105.5 million bpd in the October-December period, up 1.5 per cent on a quarterly basis, and 103.8 million bpd for the full year, up 1.6 per cent on an annual basis.

For 2025, oil demand growth is forecast at 1.4 million bpd, a slight downwards revision of 90,000 barrels per day. Key drivers of growth include demand for jet fuel, petrol and diesel, supported by strong activity in transport, construction and agriculture, the report said.

Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach an average of 105.3 million bpd for 2025, with fourth-quarter demand expected to rise to 106.9 million bpd.

Opec said robust US economic growth in 2024 is expected to continue into 2025, with healthy economic activity in the first quarter supporting the petrochemical sector.

“US economic activity is expected to be well supported by the services sector, which constitutes some 70 per cent of the US economy. Air travel and driving mobility are expected to remain healthy and support oil demand,” the report said.

After the report’s release, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, surged 1.75 per cent to $73.45, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, registered a jump of 2.29 per cent to $70.16 at 2pm New York time on Wednesday.

Bank of America, in its energy outlook report last month, said that macro fundamentals suggest markets in 2025 will be oversupplied for oil. The bank expects this oversupply to drive Brent to an average of $65 a barrel next year, down from about $80 so far this year. It predicts WTI at $61 a barrel in 2025.

Last week, Opec+ announced that it has extended its supply cuts until the end of 2026 and postponed planned output increases until April next year.

China to drive oil demand in 2025

China, one of the biggest consumer markets, is expected to remain the main driver of global oil demand. It currently accounts for nearly half of the world's petrochemical demand and ranks as the second-largest consumer of petrochemical feedstock globally, according to Opec.

Petrochemical demand in China is set to receive more support from accelerated infrastructure development and rising consumer demand for cosmetics, household plastics, pharmaceuticals and medical products. China’s petrochemical industry is also preparing for increased demand with plans for capacity expansions in the near term to ensure the country maintains its position as a global leader in petrochemical production.

“GDP growth in China is expected to remain robust, supported partly by the carry-over effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures introduced in September," Opec said. "The industrial sector and manufacturing activity are expected to be well supported as domestic consumption recovers, and demand for exports, particularly from developing countries, continues to expand."