Pump jacks and a drilling rig at an oilfield in Texas. US crude stocks rose unexpectedly. Reuters
Pump jacks and a drilling rig at an oilfield in Texas. US crude stocks rose unexpectedly. Reuters
Pump jacks and a drilling rig at an oilfield in Texas. US crude stocks rose unexpectedly. Reuters
Pump jacks and a drilling rig at an oilfield in Texas. US crude stocks rose unexpectedly. Reuters

Oil prices dip as US crude stocks rise and geopolitical tension eases


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Oil prices dipped on Thursday after rising by more than 2 per cent the previous day amid an increase in US crude stocks and easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 1.70 per cent lower at $88.60 a barrel at 9.02pm UAE time while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 1.77 per cent at $83.88 a barrel.

On Wednesday, Brent closed 2.34 per cent higher at $90.13 a barrel while WTI closed 1.97 per cent up at $85.39.

“Crude prices are lower after US stockpiles unexpectedly rose and on reports that Israel has agreed to delay its invasion of Gaza,” said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda.

“Geopolitical risks will simmer but, for now, the easing of war escalation fears has kept oil prices under pressure.”

US crude inventories, an indicator of fuel demand, increased by 1.4 million barrels in the week that ended on October 20, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a gain of 240,000 barrels.

Total petroleum stocks rose by 200,000 barrels last week while distillate fuel inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels, the EIA data showed.

Israel has agreed to delay its invasion of Gaza for now so that the US can rush missile defences to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing officials.

Israel is also considering the effort to supply humanitarian aid inside Gaza, as well as diplomatic efforts to free hostages held by Hamas, the Journal reported.

Brent crude has risen by about 6 per cent since October 7 when Hamas, which rules Gaza, attacked southern Israel, killing about 1,400 people, and taking more than 200 hostages.

Israel has retaliated with air strikes and total siege of the Palestinian enclave, with the death toll exceeding 5,700.

“Risks remain on how the US can skilfully navigate pressure to tighten the enforceability of its sanctions on Iranian barrels without antagonising China’s growing appetite for discounted Iranian crude,” MUFG said in a research note on Thursday.

In the broader commodities market, investors are turning their attention to volatile swings in the US bond market and the “fragile state” of the world economy, Japan's largest lender said.

The Israel-Gaza war will result in more economic jitters for an “already anxious world”, Kristalina Georgieva, chief of the International Monetary Fund, said during the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, top oil-exporting company Saudi Aramco expects significant crude demand growth in the second half of the year, its chief executive Amin Nasser said at the same event this week.

“The call on the industry is [for] 103 million barrels per day [in the second half of 2023] and this is in the middle of economic headwinds,” Mr Nasser said.

China's economy grew by 4.9 per cent annually in the third quarter, faster than expected, as the government introduced stimulus measures to revive growth.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Employees: 35

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Updated: October 26, 2023, 5:03 PM