Oil rises as tight supply prospects offset interest rate concerns

The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise its key interest rate by a quarter point this week

Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The central bank will meet this week to decide on interest rates. AP

Oil prices rose on Monday as prospects of tight crude supply offset concerns of further interest rate increases by global central banks this week.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 2.21 per cent higher at $82.86 a barrel at 9.58pm UAE time while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 2.52 per cent at $79.02.

Both benchmarks were down 0.7 per cent in midday trading on Monday.

On Friday, Brent settled 1.8 per cent higher at $81.07 a barrel while WTI was up 1.88 per cent at $77.07.

The week ahead will be “dominated” by central banks with interest rate decisions due from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, Jeanne Claire Walters, senior economist at Emirates NBD, said in a research note on Monday.

Markets expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at its July 25-26 meeting, Ms Walters said.

This would raise the federal funds rate to a range between 5.25 and 5.5 per cent, the highest level since 2001.

Last month, the Fed paused on raising interest rates for the first time since it started its monetary tightening cycle in March 2022 to assess the impact on the economy. It signalled it would resume raising rates again this year if needed.

The ECB is also widely expected to increase rates by 25 basis points on July 27, taking the deposit rate to 3.75 per cent, she said.

Higher interest rates dampen economic growth, lowering crude demand.

US gross domestic product data for the second quarter is due to be released later this week amid signs of slowing consumer spending in the world’s largest economy.

Crude futures have recorded four straight weeks of gains as traders anticipate a tighter market due to Opec+ supply cuts.

China, the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, is expected to introduce stimulus measures after GDP growth in the second quarter missed market expectations.

The country will formulate and introduce more effective policies to restore and expand consumption as soon as possible, Jin Xiandong, a National Development and Reform Commission official, reportedly told the Global Times last week.

Efforts should also be made to increase residents' incomes through various channels, stabilise employment and expand more scenarios for consumption, he said.

China’s GDP expanded by an annual 6.3 per cent from April to June, after growing by 4.5 per cent in the previous three months, as the country reopened after removing Covid-19 restrictions, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

However, the pace of growth in the second quarter missed the 7.1 per cent estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg and the 7.3 per cent forecast of those surveyed by Reuters.

“Oil prices are rising on optimism that the outlooks for China and India should keep the global crude demand outlook intact, while Opec+ will make sure the market remains tight,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

On Friday, Suhail Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, said current actions by Opec+ are “sufficient” for now.

“But we are constantly meeting and if there is a requirement to do anything else then during those meetings, we will pick it up. We are always a phone call away from each other,” he told Reuters at the G20 energy ministerial meetings.

On Saturday at the same event, he reiterated that what Opec+ is doing is “adequate and we are addressing that [demand and supply]”.

“We are doing this on behalf of all producers around the world and for the benefit of balancing demand and supply for all the consumers as well.”

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, said it would extend its voluntary output cut of a million barrels per day until August.

Russia has also pledged to cut its oil supplies by 500,000 bpd next month on top of the output reductions that have already been announced.

Last month, Opec+ agreed to keep its current output policy in place until the end of 2024.