Oil prices rise on China stimulus hopes

Traders will closely follow the US CPI data due on Wednesday

China’s consumer inflation rate eased to zero last month while factory-gate prices fell further. AFP

Oil prices edged up on Tuesday amid hopes of economic stimulus in China, the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer.

Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.63 per cent higher at $78.18 a barrel at 3.59pm UAE time, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 0.69 per cent at $73.49 a barrel.

On Monday, Brent settled 1 per cent lower at $77.69 a barrel while WTI was down 1.18 per cent at $72.99.

“Further economic stimulus is looking likely in China, where the likelihood of further support for the property sector and for the economy more generally was flagged by state-run financial newspapers,” said Daniel Richards, Mena economist at Emirates NBD.

“Measures could include lowering deposits and cutting mortgage rates in order to help facilitate a soft landing for the sector, alongside support for developers,” Mr Richards said.

China’s economy, which rebounded after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions at the start of the year, lost momentum in May, posting weaker retail sales and manufacturing output while registering a slowdown in the property sector.

China’s consumer inflation rate eased to zero last month while factory-gate prices fell further.

The consumer price index (CPI) was flat year-on-year, compared with a 0.2 per cent gain seen in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

The producer price index fell for a ninth straight month in June, down 5.4 per cent from a year earlier, recording its sharpest drop since 2015.

Meanwhile, traders will also be closely following the US CPI data due on Wednesday.

The overall forecast is for a 3.1 per cent year-over-year rise in headline inflation, which would be the slowest pace of price growth since March 2021, according to Emirates NBD.

The core inflation rate is expected to come in higher at 5 per cent, the lender said.

Last month, the US Federal Reserve hit pause on raising interest rates for the first time since it started its monetary tightening cycle in March 2022 to assess the effect on the economy.

It signalled it would resume raising rates again this year if needed. Its next meeting will be on July 25 and July 26.

Minutes released by the Fed last week showed that not all the central bank's policymakers found it appropriate to skip raising interest rates in June.

Some policymakers considered supporting a rate increase of 25 basis points “or that they could have supported such a proposal” during the meeting, the minutes showed.

Last week, oil posted its biggest weekly gain since April after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced output cuts for August.

The kingdom will extend its production cut of one million barrels per day, which was initially announced for July, for another month.

Russia will also cut its oil supplies by 500,000 bpd next month on top of the output reductions that have already been announced, state news agency Tass reported last week.