Filling station signs in Schwerte, Germany. Prices are expected to remain elevated amid a cautious approach by Opec+. AFP
Filling station signs in Schwerte, Germany. Prices are expected to remain elevated amid a cautious approach by Opec+. AFP
Filling station signs in Schwerte, Germany. Prices are expected to remain elevated amid a cautious approach by Opec+. AFP
Filling station signs in Schwerte, Germany. Prices are expected to remain elevated amid a cautious approach by Opec+. AFP

Brent rallies above $85 amid ongoing energy crunch


Jennifer Gnana
  • English
  • Arabic

Brent, the international benchmark under which two thirds of the world's oil trades, rose above $85 a barrel at the start of the trading session on Monday, amid continued energy shortages in Europe, China and the rest of Asia.

The benchmark was trading 0.94 per cent higher at $85.66 per barrel at 4.19pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, which tracks US crude grades, was up 1.51 per cent at $83.52 per barrel.

The benchmarks rallied on the back of a surge in Hong Kong coal futures, which jumped 9 per cent on Monday.

"With no signs of the China energy crunch alleviating soon, and with the rest of Northern Asia and Europe competing for scarce energy supplies, particularly gas, the price environment for oil remains constructive," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Oanda.

Prices are expected to remain elevated amid a cautious approach by Opec+, which has so far stayed the course on its oil policy.

The group, which is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has not succumbed to US pressure to increase production levels to ease the pressure on consumers.

The group has so far continued to incrementally add 400,000 barrels per day as part of a wider plan to add 2 million bpd back to the markets by the end of the year.

However, demand is expected to keep rising amid an continuing recovery in several parts of the world, which is expected to fuel the rally in prices.

"Recovering demand across Asia as Covid-19 restrictions are unwound has spurred a fresh wave of import demand, including from India amid ongoing refinery works," Energy Aspects said in a note.

"The slump in Chinese exports means Asia’s refiners will have to raise runs to fill the gap but this likely will not materialise until November after autumn turnarounds."

The current energy crisis and record natural gas prices are expected to boost oil demand by 500,000 bpd, according to the monthly oil market analysis released by the International Energy Agency.

Global shortages of natural gas are driving up demand for crude and placing yet more pressure on strained oil supplies, the Paris-based agency said. This, in turn, is helping to feed rising inflation and slow the world's recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Natural gas prices are more than 90 per cent higher on a yearly basis. The Henry Hub price for natural gas was down 0.81 per cent at $5.365 per million British thermal units on Monday.

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The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:

Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.

Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.

Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.

Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.

Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.

Saraya Al Khorasani:  The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.

(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Day 2, Dubai Test: At a glance

Moment of the day Pakistan’s effort in the field had hints of shambles about it. The wheels were officially off when Wahab Riaz lost his run up and aborted the delivery four times in a row. He re-measured his run, jogged in for two practice goes. Then, when he was finally ready to go, he bailed out again. It was a total cringefest.

Stat of the day – 139.5 Yasir Shah has bowled 139.5 overs in three innings so far in this Test series. Judged by his returns, the workload has not withered him. He has 14 wickets so far, and became history’s first spinner to take five-wickets in an innings in five consecutive Tests. Not bad for someone whose fitness was in question before the series.

The verdict Stranger things have happened, but it is going to take something extraordinary for Pakistan to keep their undefeated record in Test series in the UAE in tact from this position. At least Shan Masood and Sami Aslam have made a positive start to the salvage effort.

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Updated: October 18, 2021, 12:34 PM