China is in the grip of a power crunch as a shortage of coal supplies, toughening emissions standards and strong demand from manufacturers and industry have pushed coal prices to record highs and triggered widespread curbs on consumption.
How long has there been a power supply problem in China?
Restrictions on power use in homes have only just taken effect. However, China's massive industrial base has been wrestling with sporadic jumps in power prices and curbs on consumption since at least March, when provincial authorities in Inner Mongolia ordered some heavy industry, including an aluminium smelter, to curb use so that the province could meet its energy use target for the first quarter.
In May, manufacturers in the southern province of Guangdong, a major exporting powerhouse, encountered similar requests to curb consumption as a combination of hot weather and lower than usual hydropower generation strained the grid.
Other major industrial zones along China's east coast have also encountered recent consumption caps and power cuts.
What are China's energy use targets and why do they exist?
China's President Xi Jinping announced in late 2020 at a United Nations summit on climate change that the country would in 10 years cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product, or carbon intensity, by more than 65 per cent from 2005 levels.
As the world's top producer of carbon dioxide and other polluting gases, China's ability to cut emissions is seen as critical in the global fight against climate change.
Mr Xi also pledged sharp increases in renewable energy capacity at the summit, but his carbon intensity targets have been the most closely followed guidelines for emissions reduction since, especially at the provincial level where local authorities have the responsibility of making sure the targets are reached.
Has energy use declined since Mr Xi announced those goals?
According to the country's main planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), only 10 out of 30 mainland Chinese regions achieved their energy reduction targets in the first six months of 2021.
In response to that collective overshoot, the NDRC announced in mid-September tougher punishments for regions that fail to meet their targets, and said it would hold local officials to account for limiting absolute energy demand in their regions.
Has China produced less power in 2021 due to targets?
China's total power generation through August of 2021 was actually 10.1 per cent greater than in the same period in 2020, and nearly 15 per cent more than in the same slot in 2019 as utilities across the country increased output to meet surging industrial demand.
However, along with the higher power generation came higher toxic emissions, which surpassed pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of the year.
How are regions limiting power for certain users?
Local governments in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Guangdong provinces have asked factories to limit power consumption or curb output.
Some power providers have sent notices to heavy users to either halt production during peak power periods from 7am and 11pm, or shut operations entirely for two to three days a week.
Others have been told to shut until further notice or a particular date, including soybean processing plants in Tianjin in eastern China which have been shut since September 22.
Which industries have been affected by the power shortages?
The impact on industries is broad and includes power-intensive sectors such as aluminium smelting, steel-making, cement manufacturing and fertiliser production.
At least 15 listed Chinese firms that produce a range of materials and goods – from aluminium and chemicals to dyes and furniture – have reported that their production has been disrupted by power curbs.
Residential users have also been hit, with households in parts of north-east China told to limit use of water heaters and microwaves to conserve power.
What has been Beijing's response to the power crunch?
The NDRC said it would work to resolve the power shortages, but did not provide any specific details on what steps it would take.
One major near-term challenge for Beijing is its ongoing trade dispute with Australia, the world's second-largest coal exporter, which has greatly curbed coal shipments to China just as local authorities increased safety standards that have slowed production at Chinese coal mines following a series of accidents.
Another factor is a global shortage of natural gas. A number of major economies are looking to stock up on the fuel following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions.
Even so, the State Grid Corporation of China said on Monday it would "go all out to fight the battle of guaranteeing power supply" to customers and would distribute more power across its network.
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The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Day 2, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Pakistan’s effort in the field had hints of shambles about it. The wheels were officially off when Wahab Riaz lost his run up and aborted the delivery four times in a row. He re-measured his run, jogged in for two practice goes. Then, when he was finally ready to go, he bailed out again. It was a total cringefest.
Stat of the day – 139.5 Yasir Shah has bowled 139.5 overs in three innings so far in this Test series. Judged by his returns, the workload has not withered him. He has 14 wickets so far, and became history’s first spinner to take five-wickets in an innings in five consecutive Tests. Not bad for someone whose fitness was in question before the series.
The verdict Stranger things have happened, but it is going to take something extraordinary for Pakistan to keep their undefeated record in Test series in the UAE in tact from this position. At least Shan Masood and Sami Aslam have made a positive start to the salvage effort.
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