Iraq’s economy is forecast to grow further in 2019 to a three-year high due to stronger oil prices that are expected to average $75 a barrel, Moody’s Investors Service said.
Gross domestic growth will accelerate to 4.1 per cent next year from 2.8 this year, the highest level since the 13.1 per cent economic expansion in 2016, the ratings agency said in a report on Thursday.
“Higher oil prices and output, as well as an expected increase in investment spending because of the improved security situation, have bolstered Iraq's economic outlook,” said the report. “However, oil price volatility and potential further social unrest that could weaken Iraq's economic infrastructure, as well as Iraq's vulnerability to environmental risks, exacerbated by outdated infrastructure are continued risks to growth.”
Iraq, the second-largest oil producer in Opec that pumped around 4.6 million barrels of oil per day in November, is benefiting from a rebound in oil prices this year after a three-year slump that sent prices to less than $30 a barrel in the first quarter of 2016. Improvement in security has also helped boost economic activity in the country.
Iraq’s economy, which shrank 2.1 per cent in 2017, is projected to expand 1.5 per cent in 2018 and 6.5 per cent in 2019, "largely from continuing reconstruction efforts", according to the International Monetary Fund.
___________
Read more:
[ Iraq could raise output capacity by 1 million bpd in 10 years, says Wood Mackenzie ]
[ While energy outlook improves for Iraq, vulnerabilities remain ]
___________
Stronger oil prices have helped Iraq lower its public debt to GDP ratio, which doubled to 66 per cent between 2013 and 2016, and narrow its fiscal deficit which peaked at 14.3 per cent of economic output in 2016, the report said.
“Higher oil prices since mid-2017 have reversed the deterioration in the government's fiscal position and boosted Iraq's foreign exchange reserves (including gold) to more than $58 billion at the end of September 2018,” the report said.
Iraq is projected to swing to its first fiscal surplus this year since 2012 compared with 1.6 per cent of GDP deficit in 2017.
“We expect a small fiscal surplus of around 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2018, though larger than planned spending increases during 2018 have prevented a more significant fiscal improvement,” Moody’s said.
Iraq relies on oil income for about 80 per cent of government revenue, a figure that peaked at 94 per cent in 2014 and remains one of the highest in the region. Public sector salaries and pensions represented about 50 per cent of total government expenditure or 20 per cent of GDP in 2016.
“While higher oil prices improve the government's fiscal performance, they also increase the risk of complacency on reforms aimed at decreasing vulnerability of Iraq's fiscal position to declines in oil prices,” Moody's said. “Public sector compensation has been the fastest-growing expenditure item in the government's budget. The ministries of education, defence and interior are the largest employers.”
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS
Dubai Kahayla Classic – Group 1 (PA) $750,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Deryan, Ioritz Mendizabal (jockey), Didier Guillemin (trainer).
Godolphin Mile – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Dubai Gold Cup – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (Turf) 3,200m
Winner: Subjectivist, Joe Fanning, Mark Johnston
Al Quoz Sprint – Group 1 (TB) $1million (T) 1,200m
Winner: Extravagant Kid, Ryan Moore, Brendan Walsh
UAE Derby – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Group 1 (TB) $1.5million (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zenden, Antonio Fresu, Carlos David
Dubai Turf – Group 1 (TB) $4million (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord North, Frankie Dettori, John Gosden
Dubai Sheema Classic – Group 1 (TB) $5million (T) 2,410m
Winner: Mishriff, John Egan, John Gosden
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.5L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh129,999 (VX Luxury); from Dh149,999 (VX Black Gold)
The Specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 118hp
Torque: 149Nm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Price: From Dh61,500
On sale: Now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company profile
Name: WonderTree
Started: April 2016
Co-founders: Muhammad Waqas and Muhammad Usman
Based: Karachi, Pakistan, Abu Dhabi, UAE, and Delaware, US
Sector: Special education, education technology, assistive technology, augmented reality
Number of staff: 16
Investment stage: Growth
Investors: Grants from the Lego Foundation, UAE's Anjal Z, Unicef, Pakistan's Ignite National Technology Fund
Sour Grapes
Author: Zakaria Tamer
Publisher: Syracuse University Press
Pages: 176
Six pitfalls to avoid when trading company stocks
Following fashion
Investing is cyclical, buying last year's winners often means holding this year's losers.
Losing your balance
You end up with too much exposure to an individual company or sector that has taken your fancy.
Being over active
If you chop and change your portfolio too often, dealing charges will eat up your gains.
Running your losers
Investors hate admitting mistakes and hold onto bad stocks hoping they will come good.
Selling in a panic
If you sell up when the market drops, you have locked yourself out of the recovery.
Timing the market
Even the best investor in the world cannot consistently call market movements.
Signs of heat stroke
- The loss of sodium chloride in our sweat can lead to confusion and an altered mental status and slurred speech
- Body temperature above 39°C
- Hot, dry and red or damp skin can indicate heatstroke
- A faster pulse than usual
- Dizziness, nausea and headaches are also signs of overheating
- In extreme cases, victims can lose consciousness and require immediate medical attention
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Favourite spot in Abu Dhabi: Saadiyat beach
Bridgerton season three - part one
Directors: Various
Starring: Nicola Coughlan, Luke Newton, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Haltia.ai
Started: 2023
Co-founders: Arto Bendiken and Talal Thabet
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: AI
Number of employees: 41
Funding: About $1.7 million
Investors: Self, family and friends
THE STRANGERS' CASE
Director: Brandt Andersen
Starring: Omar Sy, Jason Beghe, Angeliki Papoulia
Rating: 4/5
Company Profile
Company name: Hoopla
Date started: March 2023
Founder: Jacqueline Perrottet
Based: Dubai
Number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Investment required: $500,000
COMPANY PROFILE
Company: Eco Way
Started: December 2023
Founder: Ivan Kroshnyi
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Electric vehicles
Investors: Bootstrapped with undisclosed funding. Looking to raise funds from outside
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now