Changing landscape of property in Dubai

Dubai's residential market is constantly evolving through fresh investment with buyers from emerging economies coming to the emirate.

They are fierce rivals but Etisalat and du are preparing to share as they open their networks up to each other in a bid to spur competition in the sector. Randi Sokoloff / The National

Buyers from places as diverse as Nigeria, Malaysia and Singapore are playing an increasingly important role in Dubai's residential market.

Foreign sales are still dominated by India and the UK, but the signs of growth are coming from countries that, in many cases, were barely on the radar two years ago.

Nigerians purchased Dh117 million (US$31.85m) worth of Dubai property in the first eight months of last year, compared with Dh34m for the same period in 2008, according to sales data tracked by REIDIN.com.

For example, Nigerians still make up less than 0.25 per cent of the market. But the growth has attracted the attention of at least one developer. Tameer Holding, which is marketing apartments in Dubai Marina's 107-storey Princess Tower, the world's tallest residential tower, has identified Nigeria, along with China and Russia, as key target markets.

"Tameer has received several inquiries from [Nigerian] customers interested in investing in the UAE," a company spokesman says. "It looks appropriate to establish some points of contact and drive the business to new markets."

Overall, Dubai posted Dh48.3 billion in sales for the first eight months of last year, the most recent period for which data are available, compared with Dh56.6bn in the same period in 2008 and Dh36.2bn in the first eight months of 2009, according to REIDIN's data, which uses transactions registered with the Dubai Land Department. In some cases there might be a lag between the time of the sale and when it is registered, but the data are still useful for spotting market trends.

For analysis purposes, it is best to throw out 2009, which was something of a black hole for the global property market. "2009 was very subdued," said Saurabh Sharma, the research and data manager for REIDIN.com's Dubai office. But 2008 includes some sales from 2007, making it a natural point of comparison for the current market.

From 2008 to last year, there has been little change in the numbers from many of Dubai's traditional foreign markets, the data indicate.

Indians continue to be the largest non-UAE purchasing bloc, buying Dh9bn worth of property in the first eight months of last year, representing 19 per cent of sales, REIDIN's numbers show. In 2008 Indians bought Dh6bn of property, accounting for 10.6 per cent of purchases.

UK citizens, the second-largest group of buyers, acquired Dh5.6bn worth of Dubai property in 2008 and Dh5.5bn last year, representing 11.5 per cent of sales. Among the top purchasers, Iran was the only large segment to post growth, jumping from Dh2.8bn in sales in 2008 to Dh4.2bn last year.

Since 1973, Indians have purchased Dh31bn of Dubai property compared with Dh25bn by UK buyers, Dh14bn by Pakistanis and Dh13.8bn by Iranians, according to the REIDIN data.

Among other segments popular with development marketers, there were few major changes. Ireland accounted for Dh570m in sales in the first eight months of last year, compared with Dh534m in 2008. Russians purchased Dh800m of property in 2008 and Dh726m last year, according to the data.

There was little change among GCC countries. The volume of purchases from Saudi Arabia declined, from Dh1.5bn in 2008, representing 2.8 per cent of sales, to Dh964m last year, representing only 1.9 per cent of sales. Qataris bought Dh102m in 2008 and Dh126m last year.

The most dramatic drop was among UAE buyers. Nationals accounted for almost 40 per cent of sales in 2008, with about Dh22bn in purchases, but only Dh10bn in sales in the first eight months of last year, representing 20 per cent of sales, REIDIN's data showed.

"The people in the UAE are not that focused on real estate as an investment class now," Mr Sharma said. "They are diversifying."

REIDIN's numbers on the market's biggest buyers are generally supported by data for the third quarter compiled by the local office of the property agency Better Homes.

Nineteen per cent of Better Homes clients in the third quarter last year were from India and 13 per cent from the UK. But the rest were from all over the map, including Australians and Afghans, with each of those two groups accounting for 6 per cent of sales in the quarter.

"We are seeing the same patterns [historically], with the two largest buyers being British and Indian," said Liz O'Connor, the director of sales and leasing for the Dubai office of Better Homes, which only recently starting tracking transactions by nationalities.

But REIDIN's numbers show that the real movement is around the margins. The growth in sales from Asia and Africa provides a sharp contrast to the consistency of the traditional buying groups, REIDIN's data show.

The number of sales to Singaporeans more than doubled from 35 transactions worth Dh98m in 2008 to 86 transactions worth Dh210m last year. Malaysians bought Dh21m of property in 2008 and Dh42m last year.

The value of purchases by Hong Kong people also more than doubled, from Dh2.1m in 2008 to Dh5.6m last year.

The number of mainland Chinese buyers increased by more than 700 per cent, from Dh82m in the first eight months of 2008 to Dh578m in the same period last year, according to REIDIN's data.

The Chinese are also exactly the type of buyers the market needs, said Catherine Clarke, the director of residential valuations for Colliers International's UAE office. They pay cash and are "generally buying for investment purposes", she said.

In similar fashion, sales from Africa accounted for only 1.9 per cent of purchases in the first eight months of last year - not a dramatic number. But there are some obvious signs of growth. In addition to Nigeria, buyers from Sudan bought Dh126m worth of property in the first eight months of last year compared with Dh29m in the same period of 2008.

Zimbabweans made six purchases in the period in 2008 and 13 last year. The numbers are not huge, and Mr Sharma says the data do not necessarily suggest that new waves of foreign buyers are landing in Dubai. In many cases, the foreign nationals are already living there, he said.

"It's people who are here who want to own an apartment for their own use or a small investment," Mr Sharma said. "I don't think the developers have the budget to market properties."

But as business starts to pick up, industry promoters may be well served to take note of the numbers and direct their budgets to markets with real growth potential.