Cell phone sales race ahead


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Driven largely by emerging economies, global sales of new mobile handsets continued to grow in the second quarter, according to new figures from the research firm Gartner. Almost 305 million mobiles were sold in the three months from April to June, up 12 per cent from the same period a year earlier. With the world's developed economies in a slowdown, sales grew at a slower pace than previously, but remained strong in key markets.

Sales growth was highest in the emerging markets of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. The worst numbers were in Japan, where the number of phones sold dropped by 22 per cent, a decrease twice as large as in the previous quarter. One of the fastest and earliest adopters of high-end mobile phones, the Japanese market is saturated and awaiting a new technical innovation to drive replacement purchases, the report said. Japanese mobile makers like Sharp, Panasonic and Kyocera have suffered as their home market slowed and international expansion efforts were unsuccessful.

The biggest loser among manufacturers was Motorola, whose troubled mobile handset business has been bleeding market share for two years. The company sold almost 10 million less phones in the second quarter of 2008 than it did a year earlier, and its market share dropped to 10 per cent, down from 18 per cent at the end of 2005. Motorola has not had a hit product since its hugely successful Razr phone, and Gartner expects it will be forced to cut costs and enter low-end markets to remain competitive. In March, the company announced it was separating its underperforming handset division from the rest of the business.

Motorola's lost market share was swallowed largely by Nokia, which sold more than 1m mobile phones for every day of the quarter, reaching a total of 120m, just under 40 per cent of the market. The company's market share grew by three per cent over the same period in 2007. The introduction of Apple's iPhone has invigorated demand for high-end smartphones and Gartner expects total sales in the segment to more than double in 2008, reaching 190m units, or 15 per cent of the total market. Industry watchers say Apple could sell upwards of five million iPhones in the coming year.

But the vast majority of the 1.28 billion phones expected to be sold in 2008 will be low-cost devices targeted at poor, first-time customers in the developing world. "Mobile phone manufacturers will be put under pressure to maintain healthy margins while they intend to further break through the emerging markets to increase sales," said Carolina Milanesi, the research director for mobile devices at Gartner.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”