Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, will have her hands full with major challenges. Above, at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC. Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg News
Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, will have her hands full with major challenges. Above, at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC. Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg News
Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, will have her hands full with major challenges. Above, at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC. Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg News
Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, will have her hands full with major challenges. Above, at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC. Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg News

Big challenges ahead for IMF's new leader


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Now that the dust has settled over the selection of the IMF's managing director, it can return to its core business of managing crises. Christine Lagarde, a competent and well-regarded technocrat, will have her hands full with three important challenges.

The first, and probably easiest, challenge is to restore the IMF's public image. While the criminal case against Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges now seems highly uncertain, the ensuing focus on the IMF suggests an uncontrolled international bureaucracy with unlimited expense accounts, dominated by men with little sense of restraint.

Fortunately, the truth is more prosaic. Top IMF staff face strict limits on their allowable business expenses - no US$3,000 (Dh11,000) per night hotel rooms, despite reports - and are generally underpaid relative to private-sector executives with similar skills and experience.

The IMF, like many organisations in which workers spend long trips together, has its share of intra-office romances. But the environment is professional, and not hostile to women. A previous incident in which Mr Strauss-Kahn was let off lightly for an improper relationship with a subordinate clearly suggests the fund needs brighter lines for acceptable behaviour and tougher punishment for transgressions.

The second, and perhaps most difficult, challenge facing Ms Lagarde is the mess in Europe, where the IMF has become overly entangled in euro-zone politics. Typically, the IMF assesses whether a country, after undertaking reasonable belt-tightening measures, can service its debt - and lends only when it is satisfied that it can. The entire objective of IMF lending is to help finance the country while it makes adjustments and regains access to private borrowing. This also means that a country with too much debt should renegotiate it down before getting help from the IMF.

Perhaps swayed by promises of euro-zone financial support, the IMF took a rosier view of debt sustainability in countries such as Greece than it has in emerging markets. But this has not "helped" such countries, for the availability of soft credit from the euro zone or the fund enables only a greater accumulation of debt.

Ultimately, debt can be repaid only if a country produces more than it spends. And the higher the debt, the less likely it is that the country will be able to achieve the mix of belt-tightening and growth that would enable it to generate the necessary surpluses. Delayed restructuring eventually means more painful restructuring.

If troubled euro-zone countries, especially Spain, start growing rapidly again, there is still a "muddle-through" outcome that might work. The debt of highly indebted peripheral countries such as Greece could be written down through interest waivers, maturity extensions and debt exchanges. The euro zone - and the EU - could survive its fiscal crisis intact.

But having failed to insist on an upfront restructuring, the IMF will face problems. With private investors reluctant to lend more or even to roll over existing debt, the bulk of Greek debt at the time of any restructuring will be from the official sector. How the resulting losses imposed on debt holders will be divided between the euro-zone institutions and the IMF is anyone's guess. For the first time in its history, the fund might have to take a significant "haircut" on its loans, and it will have to prepare its non-European shareholders for it.

A greater dilemma will emerge if the muddle-through strategy does not seem to be working. Ms Lagarde's challenge will be to chart a strategy for the IMF that is independent of the euro zone's strategy, even though she has been intimately involved in formulating the latter.

The third challenge for Ms Lagarde concerns the circumstances of her election. It is not inconceivable that a number of emerging market countries will get into trouble in the next few years. Will the fund require the tough policy changes it has demanded of countries in the past, or will Ms Lagarde's need to show that she is not biased towards Europe mean that future IMF interventions will become more expansive and less demanding? A kinder, gentler fund is in no one's interest.

In her campaign for the position, Ms Lagarde emphasised the need for diversity among the IMF's top management. But what is really needed is the selection and promotion of the best people, regardless of national origin, sex or race.

Clearly, the IMF's existing culture and history will bias its selection and promotion of staff towards a certain type of person. In the long run, more diversity is needed. But if it is attempted too quickly to paper over the fact that a European is in charge again, the fund risks jeopardising its key strength.

The IMF is perhaps the central global multilateral economic institution at a time when such institutions are needed more than ever. Ms Lagarde arrives to lead it at a difficult time. We all have a stake in her success.

Raghuram Rajan, a former IMF chief economist, is a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business

* Project Syndicate

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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