Vaccines and easing restrictions to drive 'significant surge' in international air travel in 2021

Despite a recovery, international passenger traffic volume will lag behind domestic traffic in 2021, ending the year at 4% of 2019 levels

A passenger at a coronavirus test station at Terminal 1 of the Berlin Brandenburg Airport in Germany. Global passenger traffic is expected to decline 47.5 per cent this year in wake of the Covid-19 crisis. EPAShow less

International air travel is expected to remain weak in the first six months of 2021, but early signs point to a "significant surge" in demand during the second half as more people get vaccinated and cross-border travel restrictions are gradually eased, according to Airports Council International.

Despite the uptick, international passenger traffic volume will still lag behind domestic traffic in 2021. It is forecast to end the year above 1.6 billion passenger, or 4 per cent of 2019 levels, ACI, the global airports body said in its latest report on the impact of the pandemic on airports' business.

"The possibility that summer vacations abroad may happen this year is more likely than ever," ACI said.

An upsurge in confidence in air travel should see people traveling outside of their countries this spring and the number should "significantly increase by mid-year".

The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on airport revenues will still be deeply felt in 2021

Domestic passenger traffic, however, is recovering faster than international traffic. It will continue to rise in 2021 to reach nearly 5 billion passengers by the end of 2021, or 65.6 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, the global airports body said.

Air transport has remained one of the hardest-hit global industries since the start of the pandemic, pushing the industry into survival mode with the loss of traffic and revenue.

The Covid-19 crisis is forecast to remove an additional 7 billion passengers by the end of 2021, representing a decline of 47.5 per cent in global passenger traffic, ACI said.

The first quarter of 2021 is expected to show little signs of improvement compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.  However, "more passengers are expected to return to travel with the biggest surge in Q3 and Q4 of 2021", ACI said.

Europe and the Middle East are forecast to remain the two most impacted regions, with declines of 1 per cent and 58.9 per cent, respectively, due to their "high dependence on international travel and connectivity, which are recovering at a slower pace than domestic travel", according to the report.

Jets parked at Alice Springs Aircraft Storage in Australia. EPA

Asia-Pacific will outperform all other regions in each quarter of 2021 and is forecast to end the year with an estimated traffic loss of 40.3 per cent.

Driven by the combination of a fast-recovering US domestic market and strong vaccination rate, the North America forecast for 2021 will "significantly improve" and the region is expected to end 2021 with a decline of 43.5 per cent, ACI said.

Airports, which took a massive hit in terms of revenues last year, are still reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 crisis. A decline in traffic has severely impacted their ability to collect passenger and aircraft-related fees.

"The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on airport revenues will still be deeply felt in 2021," ACI said.

Globally, airports will suffer a loss of more than $94bn of revenue by the end of 2021, according to ACI estimates.

Europe will remain the most affected region in absolute terms, with an estimated loss $4bn in revenue by year-end. In relative terms, the Middle East and Europe will take the biggest hit with a decrease of 58.9 per cent and 58.1 per cent respectively in airport revenues.

Asia-Pacific, on the other hand, will record the strongest recovery.

“The world is embarking on the biggest vaccination campaign in history, and we see positive indications in countries with high rates of vaccination,” ACI World director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said. "An escalation of these encouraging signs and prospects for recovery with a surge in travel in the second half of 2021 is expected."

Mr de Oliveira called for "support and sensible policy decisions" from governments to ensure that aviation can fuel the global economic recovery.

“Aviation recovery will not take-off, however, without a co-ordinated and globally-consistent approach to vaccination and testing, coupled with a safe and interoperable methods of sharing testing and vaccination information," he said.

Unwanted planes parked in aircraft boneyards across the world - in pictures

Grounded airplanes parked at Tarmac Aerosave in Tarbes, France following a lack of travel during the coronavirus pandemic. Reuters

The sun rises over parked jets in St Athan at eCube Solution's aircraft storage and disassembly facility in Wales. Courtesy eCube

An A380 Airbus airplane sits on the tarmac in Tarbes on June 19, 2020. Reuters

Passenger aircraft operated by Europe's major airlines stand parked in a storage facility operated by Tarmac Aerosave at Teruel Airport in Spain on May 18, 2020. Getty Images

Lufthansa jets were temporarily pulled out of service and parked at Germany's Berlin-Brandenburg Airport during the coronavirus crisis last year. Getty Images

Grounded jets, including Airbus A380s, Boeing Max 8s and other smaller aircraft, are seen at the Asia Pacific Aircraft Storage facility on May 15, 2020 in Alice Springs, Australia. Getty Images

A jogger passes grounded aeroplanes at London City Airport on March 29, 2020 in London, England. Getty Images

Grounded aeroplanes seen at the Asia Pacific Aircraft Storage facility on May 15, 2020 in Alice Springs, Australia. Getty Images

eCube Solutions facility in Castellon, Spain. The company had to increase storage space by more than 40 per cent to cope with the pandemic demand. Courtesy eCube Solutions

As Covid-19 continues to spread across the globe commercial airline travel has all but stopped. Airline jets are grounded at Melbourne Airport due to travel restrictions in Australia. Getty Images

KLM jets parked at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, Netherlands, April 2, 2020. Reuters

Germany's Lufthansa jets undergo a technical check-up to ensure safety standards after being grounded because of the coronavirus pandemic in Frankfurt, Germany, July 30, 2020. Reuters

Japan Airlines jets on the ground. Reuters

Airplanes parked at Lisbon Airport in Portugal. Reuters

Airplanes sit on the tarmac at the site of French aircraft storage and recycling company Tarmac Aerosave in Tarbes following the coronavirus outbreak in France, June 19, 2020. Reuters

Delta Airlines jets parked at the Southern California Logistics Airport in Victorville, California, US, March 26, 2020. EPA

Delta Airlines are just one of several airline operators turning to storage solutions for aircraft during the global pandemic. EPA

Airline jets are grounded at Melbourne Airport because of travel restrictions in Australia. Getty Images

eCube Solution's St Athan storage facility in Wales - the company has disassembled hundreds of aircraft including six Gulf Air A330s, two Etihad A319s and one Qatar A319. Courtesy eCube

Aircraft grounded because of the Covid-19 pandemic, including planes operated by TUI pictured on the apron at Manchester Airport in the UK. AFP

A row of grounded Thai Airways passenger jets at Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok on August 1, 2020, as passenger numbers plummeted because of the Covid-19 pandemic. AFP

Passenger planes parked at Berlin-Brandenburg Airport during the coronavirus crisis. Getty Images

Jets stocked by Tarmac Aerosave, an aircraft recycling and storage company, are pictured on the company parking area in Azereix, southwestern France. AFP

A Cathay Pacific passenger airplane is taxied onto the runway as other aircraft are seen parked on the tarmac at Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok International Airport on March 10, 2020. AFP

Aircrafts from different airlines are seen grounded in Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 21, 2020 in Sepang, Malaysia. Getty Images