Middle East air passenger traffic in 2023 to reach 96.8% of pre-Covid levels

The region's passenger volumes will fully recover in 2024, with a projected 429 million travellers, Airports Council International World says

Terminal 3 at Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest hub by international passengers. AFP

The Middle East's air passenger traffic is forecast to reach 96.8 per cent of pre-Covid levels in 2023, handling 394 million travellers, as the region continues its recovery from the effects of the pandemic.

The region's passenger volumes are expected to fully recover in 2024, with a projected 429 million travellers, or 105.4 per cent of 2019 levels, according to the Airports Council International World.

The Middle East was the fastest-recovering travel market in 2022 with this streak expected to continue in 2023, the trade association for airports – representing nearly 2,000 airports worldwide – said in its industry outlook for 2023–2024.

This comes as the Middle East's tourism sector has recorded the strongest post-pandemic rebound in the world, despite persistent global economic challenges, according to a separate report by HSBC.

The region, home to the biggest Arab economy, Saudi Arabia, and the global leisure and commercial hub of the UAE, is unique in recording a “total recovery” in terms of tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2023, the bank said in its August report.

The number of tourist arrivals in the first three months of this year climbed 15 per cent compared with levels recorded in 2019.

ACI World projects that global air travel will nearly return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, with all regions expected to reach this mark in 2024.

Global volumes in 2023 will reach 8.6 billion passengers, which is 94.2 per cent of the 2019 level, before fully recovering in 2024.

Next year is expected to be a milestone for global passenger traffic recovery as it reaches 9.4 billion passengers, exceeding the 9.2 billion passengers recorded in 2019.

However, compared with the pre-Covid forecast that predicted 10.9 billion passengers globally in 2024, the effects of the pandemic represent a potential loss of 13.9 per cent, ACI World's data shows.

"Upside factors include the reopening of the Chinese market and surge in domestic travel, supply chain disruptions gradually subsiding and inflation slowing down," said Luis Felipe de Oliveira, ACI World's director general.

"While downside risks remain present ... we are filled with optimism about the industry's future.

"This sector remains a steadfast force in global economic recovery, bridging connections among people, cultures and economies.”

Seeing Dubai's Burj Khalifa, the tallest building in the world, is number 10 on travel firm Kuoni's list. Randi Sokoloff / The National

Visiting the Maldives in the Indian Ocean tops the list, which was created using search data from more than 200 countries. Photo: Cinnamon Hotels

Niagara Falls, on the US/Canada border and the second largest waterfall in the world, is number two. Photo: Mert Alper Dervis / Anadolu Agency

Seeing the Mona Lisa, the work of Leonardo da Vinci, at the Louvre Museum in Paris is number three. Reuters

Known for its brilliantly turquoise waters, Bora Bora in the South Pacific is number four. Getty Images

Climbing the 93 metre-tall Statue of Liberty in New York is number five. Getty Images

Seeing the aurora borealis, or Northern Lights, is number six. Reuters

Stonehenge, built using sophisticated construction techniques, in south-west England, is number seven. PA Images

Visiting the Taj Mahal, built between 1632 and 1648 in Agra, India, is number eight. Getty Images

New York's Times Square, a major tourist destination in Midtown Manhattan, is at number nine. Getty Images

Visiting Pompeii in Italy is number 11. Getty Images

A visit to Sagrada Familia in Barcelona is at number 12. Getty Images

Cinque Terre, a string of five fishing villages on the Italian Riviera, is number 13. Getty Images

Seeing Big Ben in London is at number 14. Getty Images

Walking to Chichen Itza in Mexico is number 15. Getty Images

A trek through the Himalayas is number 16. Getty Images

Visiting Alcatraz, a former federal prison in the bay of San Francisco, US, is number 17. Getty Images

Visiting the White House in Washington DC, US, is number 18. Getty Images

Floating on the Dead Sea salt lake is number 19. Getty Images

Admiring the views at Yosemite National Park in California is number 20. Getty Images

The Latin America and Caribbean region is forecast to be the first in the world to surpass its 2019 level.

This year, the region is estimated to reach 707 million passengers, or 102.9 per cent of the level in 2019. In 2024, the region is expected to welcome 759 million passengers, or 110.5 per cent of the pre-Covid level.

Emerging markets such as Colombia and Mexico are predicted to drive the region to recover beyond 2019 levels, the report said.

Africa is expected to reach 221 million passengers, or 96.3 per cent of the 2019 level, in 2023. The region is forecast to reach 253 million passengers, or 110.6 per cent of the pre-Covid level, by the end of 2024.

This steady growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets such as Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, ACI World said.

Asia-Pacific is expected to record a "substantial jump" in passenger traffic in the first half of 2023 along with the continuing opening of the Chinese market.

However, its recovery is predicted to slow significantly in the second half of the year due to challenges in overseas tourism and looming economic concerns, the report said.

By the end of the year, the region is expected to reach 2.9 billion passengers, or 87.3 per cent of the 2019 level.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to reach approximately 3.4 billion passengers, or 99.5 per cent of the pre-Covid level, in 2024.

An Egyptian sells shisha pipes on Elmoez Lideen Ella in Old Cairo. All photos: EPA

The complex of Sultan Qalawun on the historical street of Elmoez Lideen Ella, which has been renovated

Outlets in Khan El Khalili bazaar

The complex of Sultan Qalawun was built in 1284 by Sultan Al Mansur Qalawun

Copper goods for sale. The complex has a mosque-madrasa and a mausoleum

The area's mauristan, meaning hospital, was replaced by a modern hospital in the 1920s

Painter Nabil at his art shop, which sells items from Napoleon's expedition to Egypt

A camera repair shop on the street

The front of the complex of Sultan Qalawun

Recovery in Europe is expected to slow this year and next, in contrast with the sharp surge recorded during its 2022 summer season, ACI World said.

By the end of 2023, about 2.3 billion passengers are expected in the region, or 95.5 per cent of the 2019 level. This will further increase in 2024 while at a slower pace, to about 2.5 billion passengers, or 101.4 per cent of the pre-pandemic level.

By the end of 2023, North America is estimated to reach two billion passengers, or 99.8 per cent of the 2019 level.

While the region showed a strong recovery during 2021 and 2022, driven by domestic travel, its growth for the next couple of years is expected to continue at a slower pace, ACI World said.

In 2024, passenger traffic in the region is forecast to reach 2.1 billion passengers, or 103.7 per cent of the pre-Covid level.