The Emirates' second telecommunications operator, du, is expected to take half of the UAE mobile market by as early as next year, a survey by The National reveals.
The rival to Etisalat controls almost 42 per cent of the mobile market, and is forecast to achieve parity with its larger competitor, which has seen heavy losses in its subscriber base.
In the first three months of this year, du added 272,000 mobile subscribers, while Etisalat said it lost 334,000 subscribers during the same period.
According to a survey of six analysts, du is expected to continue to build market share at the expense of its rival - although the commentators were divided in their expectations of when the two operators would have equal shares of the market.
"I think parity will be reached within the next 18 to 24 months," said Philip Brazeau, who heads the telecoms practice at the Middle East law firm Al Tamimi.
He said the planned introduction of mobile number portability, in which customers can switch between operators without changing their number, was likely to benefit du.
"The market will likely be in their favour in terms of growth when mobile number portability is implemented in the UAE," he said.
Irfan Ellam, a telecoms analyst with Al Mal Capital, said he expected du and Etisalat to have near-equal shares of the UAE mobile market by 2014.
"The majority of new subscribers are going to du - [about] two thirds," said Mr Ellam. "According to our projections du could reach 49 per cent active market share in the mobile space by 2014."
Matthew Reed, an analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, said Etisalat's heavy losses in the first quarter may have been an "exception".
However, he said it was likely the company would shed more subscribers. "I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are still some substantial losses in the coming few quarters," said Mr Reed.
Mr Ellam said du was also forecast to grow its revenues from its mobile operations. The company, which launched mobile services in 2007, initially targeted low-revenue mobile users. However, it is now expected to target higher-spending customers.
"Over the medium term, I think du is going to target Etisalat's postpaid subscribers, who typically pay more than pre-paid customers," said Mr Ellam.
He forecast du's total revenues would increase by 54 per cent between 2010 and 2015, while Etisalat's UAE top line was expected to grow by 17.7 per cent during the same period.
"For 2015, we are forecasting that du will have revenues of [about] Dh10.7 billion (US2.91bn). That's against Etisalat's forecast UAE revenues of Dh28.6bn," said Mr Ellam.
Other commentators said it could take longer for du to achieve parity with Etisalat in the mobile market - and it may never happen if the UAE Government decided to licence a third mobile operator.
"I'd expect market share parity in the mobile market in six to seven years, if everything else stays the same," said Jawad Abbassi, the founder and general manager of the Arab Advisors Group, a regional consultancy.
"If you add a third or fourth operator, all bets are off."
