The Opec International Seminar, held biennially, has brought together oil ministers and industry heavyweights from Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation to the chief executives of Shell, British Petroleum (BP) and TotalEnergies.

This year’s gathering unfolded amid one of the most volatile geopolitical backdrops in decades. Yet ministers struck a calm tone as Opec+ confirmed a 548,000 barrels per day production increase starting next month.

Markets barely flinched while headlines touted rising output, but the actual flow of barrels – especially from core “V8” producers – remains uncertain.

Independent oil companies were bullish. TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne noted China’s demand growth has slowed from 785,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd, but India is picking up the slack. Global demand still grows at 0.8 per cent to 1 per cent a year.

Suhail Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, emphasised Opec+’s deep market knowledge and defended its strategy, saying others had benefited from the group’s restraint.

Crescent Petroleum chief Majid Jafar was struck by the market’s resilience following the Iran-Israel flare-up and expressed relief at the renewed strength in UAE-US ties.

Despite analyst confusion over why crude isn’t sinking to the $50s, the market is pricing in tightness through year-end. But risks loom, chiefly a US policy misstep, such as trade tariffs, that could trigger a broader slowdown.