The US Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday to stem a disruptive surge in inflation.
The rate increase was the biggest made by the US central bank since 1994 and was delivered after recent data showed little progress in its inflation battle.
The Fed also projected a slowing economy and rising unemployment in the months to come.
“We thought strong action was warranted at this meeting,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference after a two-day meeting. “And we delivered that.”
US central bank officials flagged a faster path of increases in borrowing costs to come as well, more closely aligning monetary policy with a rapid shift this week in financial market views of what it will take to bring price pressures under control.
"Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices and broader price pressures," the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement at the end of its latest two-day meeting in Washington.
"The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 per cent objective."
The action raised the short-term federal funds rate to a range of 1.50 per cent to 1.75 per cent, and Fed officials at the median projected the rate increasing to 3.4 per cent by the end of this year and 3.8 per cent in 2023 — a substantial shift from projections in March in which the rate was projected to rise to 1.9 per cent this year.
The stricter monetary policy was accompanied by a downgrade to the Fed's economic outlook, with the economy now slowing to a below-trend 1.7 per cent rate of growth this year, with unemployment rising to 3.7 per cent by the end of this year and continuing to rise to 4.1 per cent through 2024.
President Joe Biden has fully endorsed the Fed's battle against the steepest rise in prices in more than 40 years, as he watches inflation erode his popularity and deflect attention from other milestones, including a rapid recovery of the world's largest economy and record job growth.
US central bankers began raising interest rates off zero in March as buoyant demand from American consumers for homes, cars and other goods clashed with transport and supply chain snarls in parts of the world where Covid-19 remained — and remains — a challenge.
That fuelled inflation, which worsened after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and western nations imposed steep sanctions on Moscow, sending food and fuel prices up at a blistering rate.
US petrol prices have topped $5 a gallon for the first time ever and are setting new records daily.
Economists thought March was the peak for consumer price rises, but the rate spiked again in May, jumping 8.6 per cent in the last 12 months, and wholesale prices surged as well, almost entirely due to soaring costs for energy, especially petrol.
The Fed was caught off guard with the speed of the price increases and while policymakers usually prefer to clearly telegraph any policy shift to financial markets, the latest data likely changed the calculus.
Mr Powell has indicated policymakers were poised to enact another half-point increase in the benchmark borrowing rate next month, aiming to douse red-hot inflation without tipping the economy into recession and avoid a bout of 1970s-style stagflation.
“I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” he said. “Either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting. We will, however, make our decisions meeting by meeting.”
However, the central bank cannot influence supply issues and rate increases only work by cooling demand and slowing the economy — meaning policymakers are walking a fine line between having an impact and doing too much.
But the impact will not be immediate.
“Monetary policy operates with lags, today's inflation reflects decisions taken a year ago,” said Adam Posen, head of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former central banker.
“Had Fed hiked in 2021 Q2/Q3, then inflation now would be different — not least [because] the current global shocks wouldn't be piling on already high inflation,” he said on Twitter.
Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
Bournemouth 0
Manchester United 2
Smalling (28'), Lukaku (70')
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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Solo: A Star Wars Story
Director: Ron Howard
2/5
Second Test, Day 2:
South Africa 335 & 75/1 (22.0 ov)
England 205
South Africa lead by 205 runs with 9 wickets remaining
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
UAE squad
Ali Kashief, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdelrahman, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Mohmmed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammad Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Eisa, Mohammed Shakir, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Adel Al Hosani, Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah), Waleed Abbas, Ismail Al Hammadi, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Mahrami (Baniyas)
Company%20profile
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”