The anti-vaccine protests choking off a critical trade route between the US and Canada this week are only the latest drama for an auto supply chain increasingly fraught with tension.
First, there’s the chip situation. If you thought we were headed for some kind of linear improvement, consider Ford’s fourth-quarter earnings.
The company had a massive beat in the third quarter due to an influx of chips, only to miss by a wide margin in the last three months of the year because of a lack of semiconductors and Covid-related shutdowns roiling its suppliers. Sales will drop in the first quarter as a result, Ford said.
Nonetheless, Ford estimates earnings before interest and taxes will rise as much as 25 per cent this year to as much as $12.5 billion, thanks to a rich mix of vehicle sales and an expectation that chip supply will improve in the second half.
General Motors posted strong profits because of fat prices, in spite of the semiconductor shortage, chief financial officer Paul Jacobson told investors last week.
To survive so much production uncertainty and fund their multibillion-dollar electrification plans, car makers are preserving what limited components they have for their most profitable vehicles and charging top dollar for cars in short supply.
That makes sense for car companies, but it’s putting an extra strain on the supply chain, especially smaller firms that invest capital up front to make low-margin parts, then wait months or even years for production to ramp up to high enough volumes that they can make money.
At the same time, car makers are pressuring suppliers to eat the extra shipping and logistics costs it takes to make and deliver parts.
This is a dance as old as the industry itself, but now that Covid-relief loans from the government have expired and pandemic absenteeism and chip shortages are driving up inflation, tension is pushing some companies to the brink, said Ann Marie Uetz, a lawyer at Foley & Lardner in Detroit who represents suppliers.
She’s been working on a lot of exit agreements lately, in which suppliers ask to be released from a vehicle programme because they’re losing money on the parts, she said.
“Owners will put money into a company for a period of time, when there’s an end game, when you see it’s going to turn a corner,” she said. “They’re not just going to keep building parts at a loss for their customers.”
Jeep maker Stellantis caused a backlash last month when it dropped new contract terms on its supply base. Among the sticking points was a provision that said suppliers must hand over all cost savings to the car maker as well as rights to any intellectual property they develop, said Jeff Aznavorian, president of Clips & Clamps Industries, a third-generation metal-forming company in Plymouth, Michigan.
“I don’t think the North American auto industry has ever seen terms and conditions this one-sided,” said Mr Aznavorian, whose company supplies Stellantis. “I don’t really expect them to enforce every provision of it, because if they did, we’d all be out of business.”
Stellantis declined to comment on the supplier contract terms, which were first reported by Automotive News.
Car makers are coming through a period where they’ve seen their century-long dominance of the supply chain upended — they can’t get all the chips they want no matter how much fist-pounding, lawsuits or presidential lobbying they employ.
At the same time, they’re being forced to vertically integrate more to secure the batteries and software expertise they need to keep up with Tesla.
Wall Street is also watching this tension and it sees risk for suppliers in car makers’ penny-pinching.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,900m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 2,000m
8.15pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m