London counts the cost of work from home as fears grow for struggling retailers


Neil Murphy
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London businesses are already counting the cost of work-from-home rules as employees shun the city centre in a bid to control the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

Pictures from the City of London showed some streets were left near-deserted as the guidance on office working came into effect in the early hours of the morning.

Coffee shops, restaurants and other small retailers that would normally be thriving during the busy Christmas period may now struggle to stay afloat because to the reduced customer presence, commerce leaders have warned.

Catherine McGuinness, Policy Chair at the City of London Corporation, said the Plan B restrictions were a "blow to businesses" operating in the square mile.

Speaking on Monday, Ms McGuinness warned that many small enterprises may struggle to survive if further government support is not forthcoming.

"Clearly health has to come first and everyone has to follow the rules and the guidance. But first of all we need to weigh and balance the impact on the economy."

A man wears a face mask while walking in an empty street in the London's financial district, known as The City, as new work from home guidance came into effect. AP.
A man wears a face mask while walking in an empty street in the London's financial district, known as The City, as new work from home guidance came into effect. AP.

Financial services had adapted well to the work from home guidance, she said. However, she warned that 'street level' businesses which have lost customers ahead of Christmas may struggle going forward.

"It's another massive challenge during the end of a very challenging year. I'm very concerned for them."

She added it was "not sensible" that employees were allowed to attend Christmas parties but were asked to stay away from socially distanced offices, to which she urged a return to "as soon as possible".

Commuters said their journeys into work were quieter than usual as data showed a significant drop in traffic on the capital's roads on Monday.

A Twitter user in the capital wrote: “Everywhere is extremely quiet again. Have school holidays started? Or is everyone working from home? No one at the bus stop. No traffic. No people walking. Very weird for a Monday.”

Several people travelling by train to London reported that services were quieter on Monday morning. A photograph of a near-empty escalator of Waterloo station was posted on Twitter by @lucitelu, with the caption: “Stations are quiet again. This is Waterloo, 9:15”.

Figures from location technology company TomTom show cities across England experienced a decline in traffic on Monday morning.

In London at 8am, congestion levels were down from 72 per cent two weeks ago to 60 per cent.

Transport for London said demand for Tube services as of 10am on Monday was about 18 per cent lower than it was last week, while bus usage was down about 5 per cent.

Overall Tube use up to 10am was at 46 per cent of pre-coronavirus levels, with demand for buses at 71 per cent.

Coronavirus in the UK - in pictures

  • A box of lateral flow test kits purchased in Cornwall, UK on December 16, 2021. The UK has seen a shortage of PCR appointments and home-testing kits in recent days. Hugh Hastings / Getty Images
    A box of lateral flow test kits purchased in Cornwall, UK on December 16, 2021. The UK has seen a shortage of PCR appointments and home-testing kits in recent days. Hugh Hastings / Getty Images
  • The British government's website displays a message that there are no Covid-19 lateral flow home test kits available to order on December 13, 2021. AFP
    The British government's website displays a message that there are no Covid-19 lateral flow home test kits available to order on December 13, 2021. AFP
  • People queue for Covid-19 booster jabs at Sevenoaks in Kent. PA
    People queue for Covid-19 booster jabs at Sevenoaks in Kent. PA
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Stow Health vaccination centre, in Westminster, London. At least one person in the UK has died with the Omicron variant. AP Photo
    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Stow Health vaccination centre, in Westminster, London. At least one person in the UK has died with the Omicron variant. AP Photo
  • A man wears a face mask while walking in an empty street in the financial district, known as The City, in London, Monday, Dec. 13, 2021. While many people will re-start working from home, the British government raised the country's official coronavirus threat level on Sunday, warning the rapid spread of omicron "adds additional and rapidly increasing risk to the public and health care services" at a time when COVID-19 is already widespread. (AP Photo / Alberto Pezzali)
    A man wears a face mask while walking in an empty street in the financial district, known as The City, in London, Monday, Dec. 13, 2021. While many people will re-start working from home, the British government raised the country's official coronavirus threat level on Sunday, warning the rapid spread of omicron "adds additional and rapidly increasing risk to the public and health care services" at a time when COVID-19 is already widespread. (AP Photo / Alberto Pezzali)
  • People queue outside a walk-in vaccination centre at St Thomas' Hospital in Westminster. Getty Images
    People queue outside a walk-in vaccination centre at St Thomas' Hospital in Westminster. Getty Images
  • Paddington Station in London is quiet on Monday morning, as government's latest work-from-home guidance to stem the spread of the coronavirus came into effect. PA
    Paddington Station in London is quiet on Monday morning, as government's latest work-from-home guidance to stem the spread of the coronavirus came into effect. PA
  • Motorists drive along a quiet M40 motorway on Monday morning near Warwick. PA
    Motorists drive along a quiet M40 motorway on Monday morning near Warwick. PA
  • Boris Johnson urged people to have a booster vaccine as he gave a warning of a 'tidal wave' of infections caused by the Omicron variant when he addressed the nation on Sunday evening. AP Photo
    Boris Johnson urged people to have a booster vaccine as he gave a warning of a 'tidal wave' of infections caused by the Omicron variant when he addressed the nation on Sunday evening. AP Photo
  • Some shoppers wear face coverings as they walk along Oxford Street in central London. AFP
    Some shoppers wear face coverings as they walk along Oxford Street in central London. AFP
  • An actor wearing a face mask has their head piece adjusted before before a dress rehearsal for the Wintershall Estate's nativity play held in a barn on the estate in Guildford, Surrey. PA
    An actor wearing a face mask has their head piece adjusted before before a dress rehearsal for the Wintershall Estate's nativity play held in a barn on the estate in Guildford, Surrey. PA
  • A visitor to St Thomas' Hospital in London wearing personal protective equipment. Reuters
    A visitor to St Thomas' Hospital in London wearing personal protective equipment. Reuters
  • Fans outside Selhurst Park before the Premier League match between Crystal Palace and Everton pass a sign reminding them to socially distance, in south London. Reuters
    Fans outside Selhurst Park before the Premier League match between Crystal Palace and Everton pass a sign reminding them to socially distance, in south London. Reuters
  • People wear face masks as they exit Westminster underground station in London. AP Photo
    People wear face masks as they exit Westminster underground station in London. AP Photo
  • A security guard stands by a sign asking customers to wear face masks at a store in London. Reuters
    A security guard stands by a sign asking customers to wear face masks at a store in London. Reuters
  • Christmas shoppers wearing face masks on Oxford street in London. Reuters
    Christmas shoppers wearing face masks on Oxford street in London. Reuters
  • Skaters, most wearing face coverings, skate on the ice rink at the Natural History Museum in central London. AFP
    Skaters, most wearing face coverings, skate on the ice rink at the Natural History Museum in central London. AFP
  • A shopper in a Santa hat and wearing a face covering to combat the spread of the coronavirus walks through Covent Garden in central London. AFP
    A shopper in a Santa hat and wearing a face covering to combat the spread of the coronavirus walks through Covent Garden in central London. AFP
  • Fans outside the Etihad Stadium in Manchester sanitise their hands before attending a match. Reuters
    Fans outside the Etihad Stadium in Manchester sanitise their hands before attending a match. Reuters

A TfL spokesman said the drop in overall ridership levels would badly hit its operating income, which relies heavily on fares revenue.

Last week, research revealed that Britain's city centres could lose £3 billion ($4bn) in 2022 alone as more people stay away from their workplaces and spend money in their local area instead.

The University of Sheffield study found that employees will be working about one day a week more at home than they were before the pandemic, with the shift in working habits expected to be permanent.

London is expected to be worst hit, with the City financial district expected to suffer a 31 per cent drop in spending, followed by central Birmingham, which could experience an 8 per cent decline.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged people in England to work from home where possible from Monday as he outlined a series of new Covid restrictions last week.

Other measures included the introduction of vaccine passports and mandatory wearing of face masks at shops and other indoor venues.

It comes as the UK Covid alert level was raised to Level 4 from Level 3 after a rapid increase in the number of Omicron cases.

As of Sunday, the UK had recorded another 1,239 cases of the strain, bringing the total to 3,137, a 65 per cent increase week on week, amid some warnings that the true level was 10 times as high.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Updated: December 14, 2021, 8:43 AM