The six-member GCC countries, which include Saudi Arabia, have agreed to push for an extension of the oil output deal between Opec and 11 other countries when it expires at the end of June.
The energy ministers, meeting in Abu Dhabi for the GCC Media Forum, agreed that they will seek consensus among all 24 countries participating in the deal, and if that is reached they will back an extension, although possibly for a period of just three months rather than another six months, according to Essam Al Marzouq, Kuwait’s energy minister and the chief architect of the original deal, which commenced in January.
“Our decision [in the GCC] was to push for the deal if we see consensus among the others,” Mr Al Marzouq said, referring to the 11 non-Opec countries, which include Russia and Oman.
Khalid Al Falih, the Saudi energy minister, earlier confirmed that the kingdom had given its backing to the preliminary deal.
Saudi Arabia has been bearing the biggest load of Opec’s pledged 1.2 million barrels per day of cuts, having agreed to trim 500,000 bpd to just above 10 million bpd, but in fact has been producing below that level in the January through March period to ensure a high level of compliance.
Mr Al Falih had previously been reluctant to commit to a deal extension because of worries that other producers would get a “free ride” from the kingdom’s efforts, while his country suffers economically from the cuts it has made.
The IMF last week downgraded its forecast for economic growth in the region’s oil-producing countries, cutting its real GDP growth forecast of the seven oil-exporting countries in the Middle East to 1.9 per cent this year, a full percentage point below its forecast before the deal was struck at the end of last year.
Saudi Arabia is expected to grow at 0.4 per cent versus a forecast for 2 per cent before the deal, the direct result of lower revenue from reduced oil exports.
Compliance from Russia, which has pledged to cut 300,000 bpd, the largest slice of the nearly 600,000 bpd from the non-Opec group as a whole, has fallen behind its pledge but it has improved, Mr Al Marzouq said.
“Compliance [by Russia] has risen from 120,000 bpd in the first month to almost 230,000 bpd right now and compliance from non-Opec from 40 per cent to 60 per cent and we are looking at above 80 per cent this month,” he said.
Mohammed Al Rumhy, Oman’s energy minister, said he expected the entire non-Opec group to agree to an extension, noting that Russia and Iran have made preliminary pledges.
“We all joined – non-Opec joined with Opec – to solve a problem and in our opinion the problem is not fully solved,” Mr Al Rumhy said. “So, I’m sure they will want to complete the job.”
Oil prices are up about 20 per cent from last year’s average of US$45 per barrel for North Sea Brent, although they have not been able to push past the mid-to-high $50s because of worries that inventory levels remain stubbornly high.
But the UAE energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said there was too much concentration only on US inventory levels, which have stayed high because of a surge in shale output there, with total US production back above 9 million bpd from 8.4 million bpd last September.
Kuwait’s energy minister said despite the US output surge, the maths meant that inventories looked at globally would fall if their output deal holds – “I’m an engineer and I know one plus one equals two. We’ve cut by 1.8 million bpd, we are seeing a rise this year in demand of about 1.4 million bpd and an increase of 500,000 bpd from shale oil, that still leaves us in the proximity of a 2 million bpd shortage,” he said.
Analysts broadly think that oil prices will rise further this year if the deal holds. Citibank and Goldman Sachs are among those expecting mid-$60s per barrel oil if that happens.
“Our global crude balance shows implied stock draws in July and August even in the event of a halt to the cuts,” said Eugene Lindell, senior oil analyst at JCB Energy consultants in Vienna.
“Therefore an extension, even for three months, would give the market a bullish injection, likely propelling crude prices above $60 per barrel, albeit temporarily, as pressure should build as 2018 draws closer.”
amcauley@thenational.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is the Supreme Petroleum Council?
The Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council was established in 1988 and is the highest governing body in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry. The council formulates, oversees and executes the emirate’s petroleum-related policies. It also approves the allocation of capital spending across state-owned Adnoc’s upstream, downstream and midstream operations and functions as the company’s board of directors. The SPC’s mandate is also required for auctioning oil and gas concessions in Abu Dhabi and for awarding blocks to international oil companies. The council is chaired by Sheikh Khalifa, the President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi while Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is the vice chairman.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
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How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
UAE rugby in numbers
5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons
700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams
Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams
Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season
Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season
MATCH INFO
Delhi Daredevils 174-4 (20 ovs)
Mumbai Indians 163 (19.3 ovs)
Delhi won the match by 11 runs
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Wicked: For Good
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Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
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Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
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The President's Cake
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Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, local operator Kivu Travel can organise pretty much any kind of safari throughout the Virunga National Park and elsewhere in eastern Congo.
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Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
