The global oil surplus in the first half of this year will probably be smaller than previously estimated because of robust demand in India and other emerging nations, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Supply will exceed demand by an average of 1.3 million barrels a day in the first six months of 2016, down from the 1.5 million projected a month ago, following surprisingly strong consumption in the first quarter, the Paris-based adviser said in a report. Still, further gains in oil prices “are likely to be limited by brimming crude and products stocks”, it predicted.
“Changes to the data in this month’s report confirm the direction of travel of the oil markets towards balance,” said the agency, which advises 29 of the most industrialised nations on energy policy. “The global supply surplus of oil will shrink dramatically later this year.”
The diminished glut indicates that Opec's policy, driven by de facto leader Saudi Arabia, to let lower crude prices re-balance world markets is taking effect. Oil futures closed at a six-month high above US$46 a barrel in New York on Wednesday as supplies were tightened by declining US drilling, wildfires in Canada and disruptions in Nigeria.
The IEA boosted its forecast for world oil demand this year by 100,000 barrels a day to 95.9 million a day. The rate of growth from 2015, at 1.2 million barrels a day, is unchanged from last month’s report. The agency, which said in March it might lower global oil demand forecasts, may need to increase them further, according to the report.
Strength in the first quarter was driven by China, Russia and by transport fuel use in India, which is “taking over from China as the main growth market for oil”.
Production from Opec reached its highest level since 2008 as Iran restored output previously constrained by international sanctions.
Iran pumped 3.56 million barrels a day in April, the most since November 2011 when international sanctions related to its nuclear programme started to tighten, the agency said. Together with increased supplies from Iraq and the UAE, that made up for disruptions in Kuwait and Nigeria, pushing the group’s total to 32.76 million barrels a day.
Opec is pumping about 500,000 barrels a day more than the average required for this year, the report showed.
The IEA deepened its estimate for the 2016 decline in non-Opec supply by 100,000 barrels a day, after wildfires in Canada halted some of the nation’s oil sands output. Non-Opec output will drop by 800,000 barrels a day this year to 56.8 million a day as lower prices slash drilling activity by US shale producers.
Oil stockpiles in developed nations declined in February for the first time in a year and slipped again in March, curbing their excess versus the seasonal average.
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
England's Ashes squad
Joe Root (captain), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes.
The biog
DOB: March 13, 1987
Place of birth: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia but lived in Virginia in the US and raised in Lebanon
School: ACS in Lebanon
University: BSA in Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut
MSA in Design Entrepreneurship at the School of Visual Arts in New York City
Nationality: Lebanese
Status: Single
Favourite thing to do: I really enjoy cycling, I was a participant in Cycling for Gaza for the second time this year
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
Second ODI
England 322-7 (50 ovs)
India 236 (50 ovs)
England win by 86 runs
Next match: Tuesday, July 17, Headingley
Profile box
Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India
