Oscars 2017: predictions on who will win in the main categories

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  Claire Folger / Roadside Attractions and Amazon Studios via AP Photo

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  Stephanie Branchu / Fox Searchlight via AP Photo

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  David Bornfriend / A24

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  Courtesy A24

We've sat through the Baftas, the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the People's Choice Awards, and many, many more ceremonies during what can seem like a never-ending movie-awards season.

However, they are all just warm-ups for the big one, the Oscars, which will be handed out in Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles tonight.

The front-runner among the nominees for the 89th Academy Awards is La La Land, with 14 nominations, equalling the record held by All About Eve (1951) and Titanic (1998).

It is followed by Moonlight, director Barry Jenkins's coming-of-age tale about a young black man in Florida, and Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi drama Arrival, which have eight nods each.

Who will win? Who will lose? Check inside to see our predictions for the main categories.

• Coverage of the Oscars Red Carpet begins at 2am tonight on OSN Movies Festival HD. Coverage of the 89th Academy Awards ceremony follows at 5.30am, with several repeats throughout the day

Best Picture

The nominees: Arrival; Fences; Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water; Hidden Figures; La La Land; Lion; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight

With nine films in the running, there is plenty of competition for the biggest prize of the night – but it is hard to see past La La Land.

There is an outside chance that a wave of guilt about the diversity controversy of recent years could swing some votes towards Moonlight, Hidden Figures or Fences – all of which are deserving – or that Hollywood might want to show it has forgiven seemingly reformed bad boy Mel Gibson by rewarding his war movie Hacksaw Ridge.

But all the buzz and momentum is with La La Land. After cleaning up at every other awards ceremony this year, it would be a brave man who predicts a different outcome here.

Likewise, Damien Chazelle is likely to lift the Best Director award for the film.

Prediction: La La Land

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea; Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling, La La Land; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic; Denzel Washington, Fences

Some great nominations here, for some wonderful performances – and this category is far from cut and dried. Casey Affleck must be favourite, thanks to a stunning performance in downbeat indie-drama Manchester by the Sea. It is the kind of performance the Academy loves, and he has already picked up a Bafta and Golden Globe, usually reliable indicators.

Denzel Washington – who received the Screen Actor's Guild Award ahead of Affleck – is lurking in the wings and could be a spoiler, while Viggo Mortensen would be a great surprise winner for the quirky Captain Fantastic.

Prediction: Casey Affleck

Best Actress in a Leading Role

The nominees: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Emma Stone, La La Land; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

It is never wise to completely rule out Meryl Streep, who has been nominated 20 times, and won three Oscars, but this year she is certainly an outside chance at best.

Natalie Portman's beguiling turn in Jackie gives her a decent chance of winning her second Oscar, following her triumph in 2011 for Black Swan.

Her biggest competitor is probably Emma Stone, given the tidal wave of appreciation for La La Land. Ruth Negga is also a possibility, for her role in civil rights-era interracial love story Loving, which is the kind of issue-driven movie the Academy loves to reward.

Prediction: Natalie Portman

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The nominees: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel, Lion; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

The smart choice here is Mahershala Ali. Neither Hell or High Water nor Nocturnal Animals made enough of an impact on mainstream audiences to affect the more peripheral elements of the Academy's voting college (who, in one of Hollywood's worst-kept secrets, just vote for films they have heard of if they are not sure).

Dev Patel picked up a Bafta for Lion, but he had home advantage at the UK's premiere film awards – plus it is a slightly strange nomination, given that in most people's mind, Patel is playing the leading role (albeit he shares it with a child actor in the early stages).

Lucas Hedges could be the one to pull off a surprise, but although the youngster's performance in Manchester by the Sea undoubtedly marks him out as one to watch in future, he will miss out.

Prediction: Mahershala Ali

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The nominees: Viola Davis, Fences; Naomie Harris, Moonlight; Nicole Kidman, Lion; Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

This is possibly the toughest of the big categories to call. As the only one with a majority of black nominees, it would be very surprising for Nicole Kidman or Michelle Williams to edge them out. Viola Davis's character in Fences, like Patel's in Lion, is to all intents and purposes a lead role, so on the plus side, she gets more screen time to impress – but on the other, voters might be confused about what she is even doing in this category.

Choosing between Naomie Harris and Octavia Spencer is a tough call – both are deserving based on their performances, but we will go for Harris, if for no other reason than she is English and was in a Bond movie. Admittedly, Academy members might use different criteria.

Prediction: Naomie Harris