Ah, the Golden Globes.
While it’s been 80 years since the first ceremony took place, when a group of foreign journalists working in Hollywood banded together to produce an awards show that grew in scope and stature in the following years, this is in many ways a new beginning.
The Globes rose in industry prominence and public viewership, especially because the ceremony itself was able to create a more party-like atmosphere than its stuffier counterpart the Academy Awards. However, it was unable to maintain that momentum after a series of scandals upended the status quo.
Now, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been disbanded and new ownership has taken over, with an anonymous votership of 300 journalists from around the world deciding the winners.
While that makes this the most unpredictable awards ceremony in history, it certainly won’t stop me trying to predict who will win.
Film categories
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
While Oppenheimer has continued to exceed all expectations since its release last July, Christopher Nolan’s biopic of the titular scientist is up against three other hugely acclaimed and much buzzed-about historical epics. They include the Martin Scorsese-helmed dive into early 20th-century tragedies in the Osage Nation, Killers of the Flower Moon; director and actor Bradley Cooper’s look at the life of Leonard Bernstein, Maestro; and director Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust historical drama The Zone of Interest, a Cannes Film Festival favourite.
But having so many films with such similar qualities could split the votes. This would also be a great opportunity for the new Globes to assert itself as a more internationally-minded awards programme than its too-often Hollywood-focused competitors. That leaves Anatomy of a Fall, perhaps the best film of the year in my opinion. And Past Lives, an emotional drama about a doomed potential romance between a woman who left South Korea as a child and the man who stayed but never forgot her.
That hook has made Past Lives resonate with those who find themselves caught between cultures, which many foreign journalists stationed in Hollywood may especially relate to. It’s reason enough for director Celine Song to score an upset.
Prediction: Past Lives
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Air, American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
One Golden Globes quirk continues, as the Best Motion Picture category for comedies and musicals still contains films such as May December that many would have trouble classifying as comedy.
While it’s tempting to want to hand this one to Barbie, especially as a new award for Box Office Achievement has been added to make things a bit more populist, the late love being thrown at potential future Christmas classic The Holdovers could push it over the top.
Prediction: The Holdovers
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
Anatomy of a Fall
Fallen Leaves
Io Capitano
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
An especially strong category that also includes the cinephile romance Fallen Leaves and the harrowing Society of the Snow will likely go to one of the three films also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. If I picked Past Lives there because of its resonant themes, I certainly can’t back down and pick the film I prefer now. Especially as in the early critics’ awards ceremonies, Anatomy of a Fall kept falling short of expectations.
Prediction: Past Lives
Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros Movie
Suzume, Wish
As much as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse dominated mid-year conversation and The Super Mario Bros Movie overperformed at the box office, thus getting a song called Peaches stuck in many a child’s head, this has been an exceptionally strong year for Japanese releases. So Suzume and The Boy and the Heron are my favourites here.
The latter is the grander achievement, as it marks not only the first film from the legendary animator and octogenarian Hayao Miyazaki since 2013’s The Wind Rises, it’s also a return to the fantastical worlds and themes that he build his career upon. It’s a commercial and critical hit across the world, fitting with what the new Globes should be all about.
Prediction: The Boy and the Heron
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
This is the silliest, most desperately attention-seeking category of the lot, and so we have to assume that they’ll ignore some of the bigger blockbusters and aim for the film that will do the most to make this ceremony seem relevant in a different way to its competitors. That means making a very passionate fan base very, very happy.
Prediction: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Best Director – Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
In an exceptionally competitive category, with two titans of the industry in Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese both operating at the peak of their powers, this is a tremendous opportunity to make a different statement entirely.
In Greta Gerwig, the movie world has a woman filmmaker who has shown that she can be both a critical and commercial darling, taking a toy property that no other filmmaker knew what to do with and turning it into an extremely personal, yet accessible comedy chock-full of big statements about the world we live in today.
While the film’s shine may have worn off a bit since release, Gerwig’s certainly hasn’t.
Prediction: Greta Gerwig
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
Here is the category in which I believe Anatomy of a Fall can get some of the credit it deserves. Its script, by the film’s director Justine Triet and her collaborator, Egyptian-French writer and director Arthur Harari, is a mystery that feels like no other, imbued with a maturity rarely found in film these days. There are also characters that feel deeply real, and observations about life, womanhood and relationships that feel fresh. It’s a real firecracker.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
This has been a breakout year in many respects for a number of these nominees. Barry Keoghan somehow managed to deliver a great performance in a bad movie to prove decisively that he has what it takes to be a leading man. Colman Domingo’s moment is also here, following the momentum he created with scene-stealing roles in films such as Zola.
But as much as Bradley Cooper may seem to cover these awards, this is Cillian Murphy’s year. One, because he turned in probably the most culturally iconic performance of the decade thus far, and two, because Paul Giamatti isn’t nominated in this category. (He’s over in Comedy/Musical).
Prediction: Cillian Murphy
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
While no performance has kept me guessing quite like Sandra Hüller’s, as new depths to the character were revealed scene by scene, and as much as Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon proved she could stand on equal footing with some of the greatest actors of our time, I believe that Greta Lee’s performance in Past Lives does so much to give life to a somewhat shallowly-drawn character, that it’s hard to even notice that her personality rarely transcends her circumstances. That’s what great actors do.
Prediction: Greta Lee
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
If this were merely about crowning the funniest performance of the year, the award would have to go to Joaquin Phoenix, whose turn in Beau is Afraid is a culmination of his exploration of those left behind by modern society, as he plays a man so paralysed by his own indecision that the world more or less caves in on him. But Giamatti’s performance is even better, full of warmth and humour and incredible pathos. It’s also a moment for a beloved actor to finally step into the spotlight he has long deserved.
Prediction: Paul Giamatti
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
A stellar line-up of talent and performances. But Emma Stone continues to be the “unicorn” that her television collaborator Benny Safdie describes her to be, a tremendous young actor who pushes herself into daring and experimental territory like no other. While Margot Robbie might be the crowd favourite, Stone is the clear standout of Poor Things.
Prediction: Emma Stone
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
This is the category that the world has been arguing over for nearly a year. Robert De Niro turned in some of the best work of his career in Killers, Charles Melton reached a different level, but it all comes down to Robert Downey Jr and Ryan Gosling, whose films were released on the same day. Let’s give this one to Downey Jr, as Gosling is too consistently good, and Downey Jr hasn’t showed these chops in what feels like decades.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
While Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore have long been awards season darlings, this is a great chance to focus on a rising star in Da’Vine Joy Randolph, whose turn in The Holdovers, not to mention her capable Boston accent, was one of the great joys, ahem, of the year.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
The Boy and the Heron
The Zone of Interest
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Killers of the Flower Moon
Hans Zimmer Who? Ludwig Göransson’s score for Oppenheimer is so remarkably good, it has made Christopher Nolan’s previous constant collaborator seem like a distant memory. This will prove impossible to beat.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Addicted to Romance, She Came to Me
Dance the Night, Barbie
I’m Just Ken, Barbie
Peaches, The Super Mario Bros Movie
Road to Freedom, Rustin
What Was I Made For?, Barbie
Enough time has passed for us all to admit that Ken was the real star of Barbie, and I’m Just Ken was his greatest moment, a showcase of not only Gosling’s talent, but of some stellar songwriting.
Prediction: I’m Just Ken, Barbie
Television categories
Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Jury Duty
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
Barry’s final season was too divisive, as was Ted Lasso’s. This one has to go to the sleeper hit restaurant-set show that somehow avoided the sophomore slump.
Prediction: The Bear
Best Television Series – Drama
1923
The Crown
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
The Morning Show
Succession
The final stretch of one of HBO’s most talked-about hits capped off a tremendous four-season run for Succession, and it will be hard for anything else to draw attention away from it, even the freshman hit The Last of Us.
Prediction: Succession
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown
The Succession men may be the best performances here, but they’ll split the votes because they each turned in work too good to stand out. This one will go to everyone’s favourite don’t-call-him-daddy.
Prediction: Pedro Pascal
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Helen Mirren, 1923
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Emma Stone, The Curse
Can they give every award to Emma Stone? My heart is certainly hoping so. But if I have to make the call, Snook’s work on this final season put her over the top.
Prediction: Sarah Snook
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Fanning, The Great
A number of standouts here, but only one person has turned herself into one of the most talked-about actors of the year after being an unknown two years ago.
Prediction: Ayo Edebiri
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Bill Hader turned in the best work of his career in this last season of Barry, but the crowd favourite has to be Jeremy Allen White, who created a character for the ages that really came into his own in his show’s second season.
Prediction: Jeremy Allen White
Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Television Series
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Alan Ruck, Succession
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession
It's rare that a late addition can make the impact that Skarsgård did in the show’s final season, but this one has to go to his standout scene partner Macfadyen, who (spoiler) came out the show’s winner both on screen and off.
Prediction: Matthew Macfadyen
Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Television Series
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
J Smith Cameron, Succession
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
It's an awards show. It’s Meryl Streep. Come on, now.
Prediction: Meryl Streep
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
All the Light We Cannot See
Beef
Daisy Jones & the Six
Fargo
Fellow Travelers
Lessons in Chemistry
While Fargo may have refound its magic and Lessons in Chemistry may still need to find its audience, Beef was a word-of-mouth smash with both critics and audiences, and is nearly a lock to pick this one up.
Prediction: Beef
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Steven Yeun, Beef
Jon Hamm may try to be a movie star, but this is where he belongs. His villainous work here is the best he’s been since Mad Men. But even then, I can’t give this to him. There was an even better and more beloved performance this year.
Prediction: Steven Yeun
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
Juno Temple, Fargo
Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
Ali Wong, Beef
Juno Temple has never been better than in Fargo, and Rachel Weisz showed new levels of range. But this is Beef’s year.
Prediction: Ali Wong
Best Stand-Up Comedian on Television
In a dire category honouring a dying artform, I’m going to pick a name out of a hat.
Prediction: Trevor Noah
