Golden Globes 2024 predictions: Will Barbieheimer and Taylor Swift dominate?

The 80th edition of the awards is being rebooted this year, making it harder to guess than ever

Greta Lee in the film Past Lives. Photo: Killer films
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Ah, the Golden Globes.

While it’s been 80 years since the first ceremony took place, when a group of foreign journalists working in Hollywood banded together to produce an awards show that grew in scope and stature in the following years, this is in many ways a new beginning.

The Globes rose in industry prominence and public viewership, especially because the ceremony itself was able to create a more party-like atmosphere than its stuffier counterpart the Academy Awards. However, it was unable to maintain that momentum after a series of scandals upended the status quo.

Now, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been disbanded and new ownership has taken over, with an anonymous votership of 300 journalists from around the world deciding the winners.

While that makes this the most unpredictable awards ceremony in history, it certainly won’t stop me trying to predict who will win.

Film categories

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon



Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

While Oppenheimer has continued to exceed all expectations since its release last July, Christopher Nolan’s biopic of the titular scientist is up against three other hugely acclaimed and much buzzed-about historical epics. They include the Martin Scorsese-helmed dive into early 20th-century tragedies in the Osage Nation, Killers of the Flower Moon; director and actor Bradley Cooper’s look at the life of Leonard Bernstein, Maestro; and director Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust historical drama The Zone of Interest, a Cannes Film Festival favourite.

But having so many films with such similar qualities could split the votes. This would also be a great opportunity for the new Globes to assert itself as a more internationally-minded awards programme than its too-often Hollywood-focused competitors. That leaves Anatomy of a Fall, perhaps the best film of the year in my opinion. And Past Lives, an emotional drama about a doomed potential romance between a woman who left South Korea as a child and the man who stayed but never forgot her.

That hook has made Past Lives resonate with those who find themselves caught between cultures, which many foreign journalists stationed in Hollywood may especially relate to. It’s reason enough for director Celine Song to score an upset.

Prediction: Past Lives

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Air, American Fiction


The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

One Golden Globes quirk continues, as the Best Motion Picture category for comedies and musicals still contains films such as May December that many would have trouble classifying as comedy.

While it’s tempting to want to hand this one to Barbie, especially as a new award for Box Office Achievement has been added to make things a bit more populist, the late love being thrown at potential future Christmas classic The Holdovers could push it over the top.

Prediction: The Holdovers

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

Fallen Leaves

Io Capitano

Past Lives

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

An especially strong category that also includes the cinephile romance Fallen Leaves and the harrowing Society of the Snow will likely go to one of the three films also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. If I picked Past Lives there because of its resonant themes, I certainly can’t back down and pick the film I prefer now. Especially as in the early critics’ awards ceremonies, Anatomy of a Fall kept falling short of expectations.

Prediction: Past Lives

Best Motion Picture – Animated

The Boy and the Heron


Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros Movie

Suzume, Wish

As much as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse dominated mid-year conversation and The Super Mario Bros Movie overperformed at the box office, thus getting a song called Peaches stuck in many a child’s head, this has been an exceptionally strong year for Japanese releases. So Suzume and The Boy and the Heron are my favourites here.

The latter is the grander achievement, as it marks not only the first film from the legendary animator and octogenarian Hayao Miyazaki since 2013’s The Wind Rises, it’s also a return to the fantastical worlds and themes that he build his career upon. It’s a commercial and critical hit across the world, fitting with what the new Globes should be all about.

Prediction: The Boy and the Heron

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement


Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning


Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

This is the silliest, most desperately attention-seeking category of the lot, and so we have to assume that they’ll ignore some of the bigger blockbusters and aim for the film that will do the most to make this ceremony seem relevant in a different way to its competitors. That means making a very passionate fan base very, very happy.

Prediction: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Best Director – Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

In an exceptionally competitive category, with two titans of the industry in Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese both operating at the peak of their powers, this is a tremendous opportunity to make a different statement entirely.

In Greta Gerwig, the movie world has a woman filmmaker who has shown that she can be both a critical and commercial darling, taking a toy property that no other filmmaker knew what to do with and turning it into an extremely personal, yet accessible comedy chock-full of big statements about the world we live in today.

While the film’s shine may have worn off a bit since release, Gerwig’s certainly hasn’t.

Prediction: Greta Gerwig

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie

Tony McNamara, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

Here is the category in which I believe Anatomy of a Fall can get some of the credit it deserves. Its script, by the film’s director Justine Triet and her collaborator, Egyptian-French writer and director Arthur Harari, is a mystery that feels like no other, imbued with a maturity rarely found in film these days. There are also characters that feel deeply real, and observations about life, womanhood and relationships that feel fresh. It’s a real firecracker.

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

This has been a breakout year in many respects for a number of these nominees. Barry Keoghan somehow managed to deliver a great performance in a bad movie to prove decisively that he has what it takes to be a leading man. Colman Domingo’s moment is also here, following the momentum he created with scene-stealing roles in films such as Zola.

But as much as Bradley Cooper may seem to cover these awards, this is Cillian Murphy’s year. One, because he turned in probably the most culturally iconic performance of the decade thus far, and two, because Paul Giamatti isn’t nominated in this category. (He’s over in Comedy/Musical).

Prediction: Cillian Murphy

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

While no performance has kept me guessing quite like Sandra Hüller’s, as new depths to the character were revealed scene by scene, and as much as Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon proved she could stand on equal footing with some of the greatest actors of our time, I believe that Greta Lee’s performance in Past Lives does so much to give life to a somewhat shallowly-drawn character, that it’s hard to even notice that her personality rarely transcends her circumstances. That’s what great actors do.

Prediction: Greta Lee

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothée Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

If this were merely about crowning the funniest performance of the year, the award would have to go to Joaquin Phoenix, whose turn in Beau is Afraid is a culmination of his exploration of those left behind by modern society, as he plays a man so paralysed by his own indecision that the world more or less caves in on him. But Giamatti’s performance is even better, full of warmth and humour and incredible pathos. It’s also a moment for a beloved actor to finally step into the spotlight he has long deserved.

Prediction: Paul Giamatti

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

A stellar line-up of talent and performances. But Emma Stone continues to be the “unicorn” that her television collaborator Benny Safdie describes her to be, a tremendous young actor who pushes herself into daring and experimental territory like no other. While Margot Robbie might be the crowd favourite, Stone is the clear standout of Poor Things.

Prediction: Emma Stone

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

This is the category that the world has been arguing over for nearly a year. Robert De Niro turned in some of the best work of his career in Killers, Charles Melton reached a different level, but it all comes down to Robert Downey Jr and Ryan Gosling, whose films were released on the same day. Let’s give this one to Downey Jr, as Gosling is too consistently good, and Downey Jr hasn’t showed these chops in what feels like decades.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Julianne Moore, May December

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

While Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore have long been awards season darlings, this is a great chance to focus on a rising star in Da’Vine Joy Randolph, whose turn in The Holdovers, not to mention her capable Boston accent, was one of the great joys, ahem, of the year.

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Poor Things


The Boy and the Heron

The Zone of Interest

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Killers of the Flower Moon

Hans Zimmer Who? Ludwig Göransson’s score for Oppenheimer is so remarkably good, it has made Christopher Nolan’s previous constant collaborator seem like a distant memory. This will prove impossible to beat.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

Addicted to Romance, She Came to Me

Dance the Night, Barbie

I’m Just Ken, Barbie

Peaches, The Super Mario Bros Movie

Road to Freedom, Rustin

What Was I Made For?, Barbie

Enough time has passed for us all to admit that Ken was the real star of Barbie, and I’m Just Ken was his greatest moment, a showcase of not only Gosling’s talent, but of some stellar songwriting.

Prediction: I’m Just Ken, Barbie

Television categories

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary


The Bear

Jury Duty

Only Murders in the Building

Ted Lasso

Barry’s final season was too divisive, as was Ted Lasso’s. This one has to go to the sleeper hit restaurant-set show that somehow avoided the sophomore slump.

Prediction: The Bear

Best Television Series – Drama


The Crown

The Diplomat

The Last of Us

The Morning Show


The final stretch of one of HBO’s most talked-about hits capped off a tremendous four-season run for Succession, and it will be hard for anything else to draw attention away from it, even the freshman hit The Last of Us.

Prediction: Succession

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Brian Cox, Succession

Kieran Culkin, Succession

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us

Jeremy Strong, Succession

Dominic West, The Crown

The Succession men may be the best performances here, but they’ll split the votes because they each turned in work too good to stand out. This one will go to everyone’s favourite don’t-call-him-daddy.

Prediction: Pedro Pascal

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama

Helen Mirren, 1923

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Sarah Snook, Succession

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Emma Stone, The Curse

Can they give every award to Emma Stone? My heart is certainly hoping so. But if I have to make the call, Snook’s work on this final season put her over the top.

Prediction: Sarah Snook

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Fanning, The Great

A number of standouts here, but only one person has turned herself into one of the most talked-about actors of the year after being an unknown two years ago.

Prediction: Ayo Edebiri

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Bill Hader turned in the best work of his career in this last season of Barry, but the crowd favourite has to be Jeremy Allen White, who created a character for the ages that really came into his own in his show’s second season.

Prediction: Jeremy Allen White

Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Television Series

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

Matthew Macfadyen, Succession

James Marsden, Jury Duty

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Alan Ruck, Succession

Alexander Skarsgård, Succession

It's rare that a late addition can make the impact that Skarsgård did in the show’s final season, but this one has to go to his standout scene partner Macfadyen, who (spoiler) came out the show’s winner both on screen and off.

Prediction: Matthew Macfadyen

Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Television Series

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Abby Elliott, The Bear

Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

J Smith Cameron, Succession

Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building

Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

It's an awards show. It’s Meryl Streep. Come on, now.

Prediction: Meryl Streep

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

All the Light We Cannot See


Daisy Jones & the Six


Fellow Travelers

Lessons in Chemistry

While Fargo may have refound its magic and Lessons in Chemistry may still need to find its audience, Beef was a word-of-mouth smash with both critics and audiences, and is nearly a lock to pick this one up.

Prediction: Beef

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six

Jon Hamm, Fargo

Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers

David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves

Steven Yeun, Beef

Jon Hamm may try to be a movie star, but this is where he belongs. His villainous work here is the best he’s been since Mad Men. But even then, I can’t give this to him. There was an even better and more beloved performance this year.

Prediction: Steven Yeun

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six

Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry

Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death

Juno Temple, Fargo

Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers

Ali Wong, Beef

Juno Temple has never been better than in Fargo, and Rachel Weisz showed new levels of range. But this is Beef’s year.

Prediction: Ali Wong

Best Stand-Up Comedian on Television

In a dire category honouring a dying artform, I’m going to pick a name out of a hat.

Prediction: Trevor Noah

Updated: January 06, 2024, 10:23 AM