The Bank of England on Thursday raised its key interest rate for the third time since December as it strives to combat rising inflation, which is expected to hit 8 per cent in April as the conflict in Ukraine continues.
Eight out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise the main bank rate to 0.75 per cent from 0.5 per cent, with the move following the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise borrowing costs for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The lender said inflation was likely to hit about 8 per cent in April – almost a percentage point higher than it forecast last month – with warnings it could peak even higher later in the year, worsening the cost-of-living crisis for Britons already grappling with higher energy and food bills.
But the BoE softened its language around future rate increases as it assessed the full impact of the Ukraine-Russia war.
"The committee judged that some further modest tightening might be appropriate in the coming months, but there were risks on both sides of that judgment depending on how medium-term prospects evolved," the BoE said.
Soaring inflation means the squeeze on households incomes in the UK will be “materially larger” than implied in February, the BoE said. The war in Ukraine will exacerbate global supply chain disruptions with its regional agents already finding evidence the crisis is snarling supply chains for manufacturers, the bank said.
Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe voted to keep rates on hold, warning of a big hit to demand from higher commodity prices, a move that surprised economists who expected a unanimous vote for higher rates.
Alpesh Paleja, lead economist at the Chamber of British Industry, said “the MPC are clearly making moves to counter growing inflation” as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global commodity prices higher and exacerbating supply chain disruption.
“But they will be walking a tightrope in the months ahead, having to both keep price pressures in check and manage the impact of tighter monetary policy on economic growth – particularly against a background of rising living costs,” he said.
“As households and businesses brace for further price rises, targeted support from government will be needed to cushion the blow until the outlook is on a firmer footing.”
It said the squeeze on British household budgets was likely to be materially larger than it had predicted last month, which was already going to be the biggest in 30 years.
Energy bills, exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, are likely to jump in the autumn when regulated tariffs are reset, on top of a 54 per cent increase rise coming next month.
“Today's decision will undoubtedly place many households under greater financial strain,” said Richard Eagling, senior personal finance expert at NerdWallet
“Teamed with high inflation and soaring gas, electricity and food prices, as well as the fact that the average UK adult holds around £32,000 of debt, today's increase could impact some people's ability to afford their repayments. Make no mistake, these are extremely challenging times as far as financial management is concerned.”
Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Bank of England expected consumer price inflation to peak at about 7.25 per cent in April, more than three times its target of 2 per cent.
Last week, UK think tank The Resolution Foundation said that inflation may now peak at more than 8.4 per cent, taking it to its highest level since 1982.
The majority of the BoE committee said they raised rates to reduce the risk that recent trends in pay growth and inflation become embedded in expectations.
Businesses surveyed by the BoE expect to raise pay by 4 per cent to 6 per cent this year, compared with 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2021.
Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital, said the MPC had clearly moved in a more dovish direction, with the previous calls for a 50 basis points rise by four members gone and one member even voting to keep rates on hold.
“Clearly the deteriorating growth outlook is becoming more of a concern to the MPC, and the easing off on the monetary tightening accelerator evidences this," Mr Cole said.
“Alongside this, the MPC may also be recognising that current inflationary pressures are largely supply-side driven and as such there is little it can do to fight them and concluded that the deflationary impact of the fiscal tightening facing the UK from this April will be enough to counter the inflationary boosting potential of higher wages claims."
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Company%20profile
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Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
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Results:
5pm: Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Tahoonah, Richard Mullen (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,400m | Winner: Ajwad, Gerald Avranche, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: Duc De Faust, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 2,200m | Winner: Shareef KB, Fabrice Veron, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,500m | Winner: Bainoona, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 290hp
Torque: 340Nm
Price: Dh155,800
On sale: now
Match info
Huddersfield Town 0
Chelsea 3
Kante (34'), Jorginho (45' pen), Pedro (80')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo
Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi
Rating: 2/5
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The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Sri Lanka v England
First Test, at Galle
England won by 211
Second Test, at Kandy
England won by 57 runs
Third Test, at Colombo
From Nov 23-27
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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