Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the US jobs data due on Friday, which could provide direction to the dollar’s movement against key currencies and provide clues as to when the Federal Reserve would raise rates.
Ahead of the jobs data release, the dollar continued to slip against the Japanese yen for a second day on Wednesday. In Tokyo, the greenback slipped to ¥119.68 from ¥119.74 in New York, coming off levels above ¥120 on Tuesday.
Economists are looking at 235,000 employment opportunities to have been created in February and a slightly lower jobless rate, which stood at 5.7 per cent in January.
The ADP National Employment Report released today showed private employers added 212,000 jobs in February, short of the 220,000 forecast, although January’s reading was revised upward to 250,000 from the initial 213,000.
Seven of the Fed’s 17 members have said they want the option of a rate rise in June on the table, or have pushed in general for an earlier increase, in the expectation that wages and inflation will turn higher.
However, there are increasing concerns about the US economy, which slowed considerably sharper than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year.
GDP expanded at a 2.2 per cent annual pace, revised down from the 2.6 per cent pace estimated in January, the commerce department said last Friday. The economy expanded at a 5 per cent rate in the third quarter.
Growth is set to pick up in the first quarter now that the threat of an inventory overhang has diminished. However, an exceptionally cold and snowy February, as well as reductions in oil and gas drilling, could limit the pace of expansion.
“The composition of growth is looking much better, we are setting up for a solid quarter for the economy. The first quarter is still work in progress,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Businesses accumulated US$88.4 billion worth of inventory in the fourth quarter, far less than the $113.1bn the government had estimated in January.
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, was also revised down by one-tenth of a percentage point to a 4.2 per cent pace in the fourth quarter, still the fastest since the first quarter of 2006.
Gold, meanwhile, edged higher today following two days of losses. The metal had fallen to a one-week low of $1,194.90 on Tuesday before paring its losses to close above $1,200.
Despite the gains, the metal could remain under pressure because of expectations of robust US economic data and higher US interest rates, plus investor outflows from bullion funds.
“In the short term, the mood is still bearish though we might trade in a tight range until the jobs data on Friday,” said a trader in Hong Kong.
“Exchange-traded funds are seeing some big outflows, so that could also add to the pressure if US data is better than expected,” he said.
Gold is likely to trade in a $1,200-$1,220 range leading into the jobs data, according to MKS Group.
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.35 per cent to 760.80 tonnes on Tuesday, the second straight day of outflows. That followed a near-8-tonne fall on Monday, the biggest outflow this year.
“With not much happening on the investment side, gold may be more impacted by traditional supply-demand factors,” James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) in New York, wrote in a note. The premiums in China imply good demand and expectations for Indian purchases are high, he wrote.
In other trading, the euro eased 0.1 per cent to $1.1169, after having slipped to a low near $1.1155 on Tuesday, its lowest level since late January.
The euro’s moves have been subdued over the past few sessions and it has struggled ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting today and the implementation of its €1.1 trillion government bond-buying programme, due to start this month.
The ECB council will unveil the details of the bond purchase programme it is embarking on later this month.
“In interest rate markets there is a focus on the actual start of quantitative easing,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, a market strategist for Praevidentia Strategy in Tokyo, referring to the ECB’s bond-buying scheme.
“The QE is weighing on the overall sentiment toward the euro,” he added.
In an interesting development, surveys showed that price cutting and a weaker currency helped euro-zone business activity accelerate in February.
The survey compiler Markit said the surveys pointed to first quarter GDP growth of 0.3 per cent, the same as at the tail end of 2014, as business activity expanded in all of the bloc’s four biggest economies for the first time since last April.
“The outlook has brightened for all countries. The weaker euro should help boost exports and, perhaps most importantly, the commencement of quantitative easing by the ECB should stimulate the economy as we move through the year,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
The euro’s nearly 8 per cent fall since the start of the year against the dollar helped to drive Markit’s final February Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) up to a seven-month high of 53.3.
Although weaker than a preliminary estimate of 53.5 it comfortably beat January’s 52.6 and achieved its 20th month above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.
business@thenational.ae
