Syria enters a dangerous new era


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Syria enters a new era fraught with danger

As expected, there was nothing new in the Syrian president's Bashar al Assad's speech on Monday. This frustrated the regime's supporters as much as its opponents, observed Tareq Homayed, the editor-in-chief of the London-based daily Asharq Al Awsat.

The speech was a list of promises and implicit threats. And it burnt bridges with Turkey.

"This is no rhetoric for a country in crisis," the editor wrote. "This isn't an external conspiracy and to persist in accusations of treason only amplifies tensions in a society in which 1,300 people have been killed and 10,000 have been forced to flee, in addition to thousands of detainees and missing persons. And on top of all that, there are 64,000 wanted!"

The president's speech seemed to obliterate any hope that he would respond to people's demands, and to confirm that the regime is prepared to fight until the bitter end. This warranted an immediate wave of protests in many Syrian cities.

Foreign countries expressed great disappointment with the speech. Turkey's president was swift to label it as "insufficient".

Syria entered a more complicated and more precarious stage following the speech. The crisis of trust between citizens and the regime is worse now that the regime has failed to make or implement one tangible decision to alleviate tensions.

The situation is far from any peaceful solution. Anything can happen.

Assad's speech was a mediation proposal

President Bashar al Assad's tone during his Monday speech didn't exude the usual overconfidence the world has been accustomed to even in the worst of circumstances, observed the columnist Satea Noureddine in an editorial appearing in the Lebanese Assafir daily.

Mr al Assad started by saying he wanted to deny rumours that touched him personally and his family. He didn't explain what the rumours were.

He didn't offer any serious concession other than extending pardon to individuals and reinstating rights which have been missing since the 1980s. He mentioned his inclination to draft a new constitution for Syria and a new electoral law.

"The problem isn't in the presidential palace. It is rather in the street, that must stop protesting and breaching security and unity and join the national dialogue committee or the consultancy committee that will be convening again soon," the writer quoted the president saying.

"The speech was like a mediation attempt. But, alas, the offer was three month late, and during that time Syrians saw their country collapse.

"The entire world witnessed that in Damascus there is a tower, unconcerned with the persistent calls for serious measures that could save Syria from an even greater catastrophe if the tower itself were to collapse."

Cautious welcome for Morocco reforms

Described as politically advanced, the draft constitution proposed by King Mohammed VI of Morocco has been welcomed by western governments and media, observed Mazen Hammad in a commentary for the Qatari newspaper Al Watan.

Yet some political forces, led by the February 20 movement, claim the plan is not enough to achieve the parliamentary monarchy Moroccans have demanded.

King Juan Carlos of Spain, a model parliamentary monarch to many Moroccans, hailed this step, while the European Union called the draft constitution an important measure as well as a firm commitment to democracy and respect for human rights.

Although Mohammed VI approved many constitutional reforms waiving some of his absolute powers, thousands of Moroccans rallied to express their dissatisfaction, especially with the king's proposal to retain control over security, military and religious matters. They urged him to relinquish such executive capacities to elected bodies.

Many observers, however, believe that the mere fact of delegating some of the king's powers to the government is a prelude to continuing democratisation, potentially leading to full parliamentary monarchy.

The opposition said it would continue demanding more changes. Sceptics also pointed out that the monarchy is deeply entrenched and has a long history of cosmetic reforms.

Nato mistakes causing rise in civilian toll

On Monday, Nato air raids in Libya killed 15 civilians, among them three children, when they targeted what was believed to be a military location for Col Muammar Qaddafi. Nato later admitted the mistake, which was due to a glitch in programming at missile launching pads.

The pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi said in its editorial that "It is evident that Nato is targeting residential homes in the hope of physically assassinating the Libyan leader, based on intelligence information. But all such assassination attempts have so far been unsuccessful."

UN Security Council resolution 1973 does not provide for assassination, but the states participating in the military operations interpret the resolution otherwise.

Nato commanders stated recently that they would be intensifying their military operations in Libya to put an end to the current military deadlock. For their part, Nato spokesmen confirmed that they are avoiding the killing of civilians, but facts show that they have killed more than 20 civilians in Tripoli in less than three days.

"That Nato hits and raids are accurate is a lie that was uncovered in Afghanistan," the daily said. "Those killed by Nato … are martyrs. They deserve our sympathy just as much as the martyrs killed by the Qaddafi forces in Misurata and Benghazi."

* Digest compiled by Racha Makarem

UAE squad

Ali Kashief, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdelrahman, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Mohmmed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammad Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Eisa, Mohammed Shakir, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Adel Al Hosani, Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah), Waleed Abbas, Ismail Al Hammadi, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Mahrami (Baniyas)

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE