Play hardball with Netanyahu or risk being played for a fool

The Israeli leader doesn’t want peace on any terms other than those that would leave both his coalition intact and the Palestinians as a humiliated and still captive people, writes James Zogby.

Over the past few weeks several comments related to the collapsed Israeli-Palestinian peace talks caught my attention. To be blunt, what they reveal is that there will be no peace as long as Benjamin Netanyahu remains as prime minister of Israel.

The first comment came from an “anonymous US official”. Here is the reason that person gave for the collapse of the peace process: “The negotiations had to start with a decision to freeze settlement construction. We thought that we couldn’t achieve that because of the make-up of the Israeli government ... We didn’t realise Netanyahu was using the announcements of tenders for settlement construction as a way to ensure the survival of his own government.

“There are a lot of reasons for the peace effort’s failure, but people in Israel shouldn’t ignore the bitter truth – the primary sabotage came from the settlements. The Palestinians don’t believe that Israel really intends to let them found a state when it is building settlements on the territory meant for that state.”

The second comment came from Mr Netanyahu, speaking to members of his political party. Here’s what he said: “When I entered the prime minister’s office for my second term, I was summoned to Washington. ‘Not one brick’, they told me. The pressure was enormous. And still, after five years on the job, we built a little more than ‘one brick’. But the important thing is to do it in a smart way ... What matters is that we continue to head towards our goal, even if one time we walk right and another time we walk left.”

Mr Netanyahu was elected in 1996 on a platform dedicated to ending the Oslo peace process. In time, Mr Netanyahu succeeded in so distorting the process that he could claim five years later how he “played the US” and won. Here is Mr Netanyahu, this time in 2001: “America is a thing that can be easily moved, moved in the right direction. They will not bother us.”

Why anyone would have thought upon his 2009 reelection that Mr Netanyahu would have changed is difficult to understand. Yes, he claimed to endorse a two-state solution, but with sufficient caveats as to render his endorsement meaningless. And yes, he agreed to a short-term “settlement freeze”, but as the facts on the ground made clear, his agreement was full of holes.

On the one hand, Mr Netanyahu can be seen as a schemer, but in reality, he is an ideologue, relentless in his efforts to maintain control. He will feint to the left or right, as needs be, but the key to understanding him is to judge him by his actions, not his words.

During Bill Clinton’s second term, Mr Netanyahu so tested his patience that the US president began to apply subtle but real pressure to send the message to the Israeli people that the US could no longer tolerate his behaviour.

I recall Mr Clinton’s frustration when Mr Netanyahu expressed the fear that his government would fall if he agreed to what the US was asking him to do. Mr Clinton knew that if Mr Netanyahu moved toward peace he would in fact lose some hardline supporters. But what Mr Clinton also knew was that Mr Netanyahu would pick up more support from centrist parties. Then, as now, Mr Netanyahu chose to keep his hardline coalition and to forgo peace. Mr Clinton’s pressure continued until Israelis got the message and elected a new PM.

President Obama tried to pressure Mr Netanyahu, but after the Israeli PM played the US Congress against him, Mr Obama relented.

If the president still hopes to succeed in his second term, he has a choice to make. Leaving it up to the parties to make peace will not work, because Mr Netanyahu doesn’t want peace on any terms other than those that would leave both his coalition intact and the Palestinians as a humiliated and still captive people. If the US is serious, then the only course of action is to apply sufficient pressure to force Israelis to choose between Mr Netanyahu and peace. It’s politically risky, to be sure, but unless we are ready to play hardball with Netanyahu, he will continue to play us for the fools he thinks we are.

James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute

On Twitter: @aaiusa