Iran shows perception matters more than reality at global level

The outside world may think it's seeing a new, more open Iran, but the country's population has noticed little change.

In international politics, the perception of a country can sometimes play a more significant role than reality.

Consider Iran for example. Even though the government of Hassan Rouhani has not fundamentally changed its nuclear policies or major foreign-policy objectives (such as its stand on Bashar Al Assad’s regime), the mere projection of it as a “moderate” government seems to be working in its favour as it seeks to further its economic and political interests.

The Iranian authorities have been trying to use their recently-cultivated image to lure back western oil companies. Statistics indicate that the oil industry, the country’s major economic lifeline, has begun to recover.

According to International Energy Agency reports, Iran’s oil exports increased by 180,000 barrels per day in September, compared to the previous year. That is equivalent to a 26 per cent increase.

The signs of improving relations between Iran and the United States have encouraged many Asian nations such as China, India, Japan and South Korea to almost double their oil imports from Iran. Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Iran’s oil minister, said recently that serious plans were afoot to boost the country’s oil exports and sales by about four times.

Western sanctions and the pressure that came with shipping oil from Iran had reduced Iran’s oil exports by almost 60 per cent. That roughly translates into 2.5 million barrels a day in 2009 to less than a million barrels a day in early 2013.

As a result, Iran lost billions of dollars in revenue, which spiked inflation, raised domestic prices, decreased the GDP, devalued the currency and increased unemployment, as well as the level of domestic discontent with the government.

Taking advantage of the changing perspective of the West towards Iran, Mr Rouhani’s government is seeking to reopen the oil industry to eastern and western oil cooperation by reforming some of the laws governing oil exports.

This would allow them to avoid any possible economic damage in the future – similar to those encountered during the time of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – in case western and international sanctions were to increase.

Mehdi Hosseini, an adviser to Iran’s oil minister, was quoted in the Financial Times as saying that the Iranian government was developing a “win-win” form of contract, which could benefit leading western and eastern companies alike. The Iranian government is trying, according to Mr Hosseini, to also change the current system of “buy-back” contracts, which currently do not permit foreign companies to book reserves or take equity stakes in Iranian oil, gas or other projects. This can be seen as a major shift in Iran’s oil industry, which has been exposed to little foreign investment in its oil and gasfields due to international sanctions as well as its hostile position on foreign investment in the Islamic Republic.

While there is a wide perception among western countries that Mr Rouhani’s government is comparatively moderate (and different from the previous Iranian administration), the country’s domestic reality does not reflect an image of moderation for many of the Iranian people.

The hardliners’ campaigns for suppression of dissent and reassertion of their power have intensified over the past few weeks. Last week, for example, Iran’s press watchdog imposed a ban on a major reformist newspaper Bahar, because it published an article that was seen as raising questions on the Shiite faith.

The newspaper published an opinion article in which the author cast doubts on whether the Prophet Mohammed had appointed a successor – his cousin Ali. Such a statement contradicts the beliefs of Shiites, the community that includes Iran’s ruling clerics and Ayatollahs.

Furthermore, the Iranian authorities executed 16 Sunni insurgents last month. Those executions were reportedly carried out as a retaliation for an attack by Sunni militants a day earlier on Iranian border guards in the south eastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan near Pakistan. According to a Christian advocacy group and international news outlets, a court in Iran has recently sentenced four Christian men to 80 lashes each for drinking wine during a communion ceremony.

According to a report in October, prepared by Ahmed Shaheed, a UN special reporter on human rights in Iran, persecution of Christians remains common in the country despite Mr Rouhani’s pledge to exercise moderation.

Even though the moderate image of Mr Rouhani’s government has not benefited the Iranian people yet, as many Iranian political and human rights activists have recently been arrested and sentenced to jail, the purported image seems to have worked well at the international level.

The impression that Tehran is moderate has, so far, been sufficient in giving Iran some international legitimacy, leading to an increase in its oil exports and a rebuilding of its economy.

This will inevitably assist Iranian leaders in having further capabilities to fund and assist their proxies in the region, to help the Assad regime financially (besides their military, intelligence, and advisory assistance), and to increase its influence in the region.

Dr Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American scholar and political analyst, is president of the International American Council on the Middle East