Don’t expect any big breakthroughs during Rouhani’s US trip

Hassan Rouhani may use conciliatory language and a soft tone at the UN General Assembly this week, but he is likely to maintain the argument that Iran’s nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran will be attending the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week. According to his foreign minister Javad Zarif, Mr Rouhani will be delivering three crucial speeches on Wednesday.

The major reasons for Mr Rouhani’s election included his promises to ease the country’s economic isolation and relieve tensions with the West over Iran’s disputed nuclear programme.

Several major political questions have been raised with regards to the UN General Assembly meeting and speeches: whether Mr Rouhani will use the opening session of the meetings in New York as a political opportunity to make significant headway with Barack Obama? What kind of messages will he be delivering in his three speeches?

First of all, Mr Rouhani will attempt to distinguish himself from former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hardliner who became known for his confrontational, rambling and incendiary speeches.

While Mr Ahmadinejad used his General Assembly appearances to antagonise the West, question the Holocaust, call 9/11 an inside job carried out by the CIA, and rail against Israel, Mr Rouhani will primarily aim to emulate former president Mohammad Khatami’s speeches, which called for greater international dialogue.

Mr Rouhani’s General Assembly speech will be followed by an appearance at the nuclear disarmament summit meeting of the UN, with a third speech delivered to foreign ministers of the Non-Aligned Movement – the biggest bloc of UN member states, and where Iran holds a role in the rotating presidency.

There have been discussions on the exchange of letters between Mr Obama and Mr Rouhani. This exchange may lead to a planned meeting, a face-to-face encounter between the American and Iranian leaders. The last direct encounter between an American president and an Iranian leader came when Jimmy Carter met the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1977.

Although these exchanges are positive signs that have set the stage for a possible meeting between the two leaders in New York next week, it is important to question whether this would lead to a meaningful shift in American-Iranian relations.

Though Mr Rouhani may use more conciliatory language and a softer tone when speaking on Iran’s nuclear defiance at the nuclear disarmament summit meeting, he will continue to maintain the argument that Iran’s nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, insisting on the nation’s right to enrich uranium. A fundamental shift on Iran’s nuclear policies will not be on his agenda. Yet, the United States, Israel and other western countries will claim that they are concerned that Tehran’s scientists are seeking the capability to build nuclear weapons.

Furthermore, the potential meeting between Mr Rouhani and Mr Obama will not lead to a breakthrough in Iranian-American diplomatic relations because both leaders will face significant amounts of political pressure and domestic criticism (from Congress and Iran’s parliament) if they show any diplomatic or political leniency towards the other party.

Another point of contention and fundamental opposition between the US and Iran is linked to the continuing conflict in Syria.

The US has repeatedly criticised Iran for supporting the Assad regime militarily, financially, and through intelligence and advisory roles. Based on Mr Rouhani’s latest remarks since becoming president, he has not called for a shift in Iran’s foreign policy towards the Assad regime. Military, financial, and economic support is still flowing to Syria.

Finally, as witnessed under former president Mohammad Khatami, the final say in Iran’s nuclear programme and Iran’s foreign policy rests in the hands of the nation’s three most powerful institutions: the Supreme Leader’s office, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the intelligence agencies.

Although there is a considerable amount of hope that the UN General Assembly might lead to diplomatic headway between Mr Obama and Mr Rouhani, the political and positional gap between the United States and Iran is too deep to bridge, particularly with regards to the most crucial issues of Iran's nuclear defiance and support for Mr Al Assad.

Dr Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American scholar, is president of the International American Council on the Middle East

On Twitter: @majidrafizadeh