Although Lebanon finally seems to be moving forward with the formation of a new government, ending 10 months of stalemate, nobody should expect the country's political, economic and security problems to suddenly disappear. Addressing these profound challenges will require tremendous efforts from all parties involved.
The new 24-member government will bring together the Shiite organisation Hizbollah and its allies with the Sunni-led bloc of former prime minister Saad Hariri, each taking eight ministries. The final eight ministries go to “neutral” candidates. Of course, this will not resolve the state of polarisation that could – and, in all likelihood, will – resume. The balance of the cabinet is a good act of pleasing all but satisfying none, and effectively assures that each group has the power to stymie the other, with the likely end result of paralysing its ability to make a difference.
For now, the formation of the new government is expected to bring some life to Lebanon’s governing institutions, and could energise the sagging economy, breathing life back into a tourism industry reeling from bombings and assassinations in the country, a spillover from the conflict in Syria. The new prime minister, Tammam Salam, faces a near-impossible mission to continue this level of political harmony while simultaneously seeking to end the worsening security situation and begin work tackling the many socio-economic challenges facing his country.
Presidential elections are due in May, and will involve a new chapter in the jostling for advantage between the competing political blocs that led to the 10-month delay in forming a government. The conflict in neighbouring Syria is mirrored in Lebanon, with Hizbollah sending its fighters to bolster the Assad regime while the Hariri bloc is supporting the Syrian opposition.
This schism will continue to affect Lebanese politics, inhibiting the ability and effectiveness of those who seek to get beyond immediate issues of stability and security so they can begin to tackle the nation’s real problems and help foster economic prosperity.
Within this context, how ought one to react to the formation of a government in Lebanon? Ending the stalemate is certainly a step forward, but it is one step in a very long journey. Nobody believes Lebanon’s challenges will be solved simply by getting all the parties to sit around a table, but that is at least a place to start.
