US ban on Russian oil to leave more cargoes at sea with no buyers

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The US ban on Russian oil and gas imports is likely to leave more cargoes at sea with no buyers and the EU's decision to continue imports was unlikely to make much difference to to disarray in Russian oil trade, analysts say.

US President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine and Britain said it would phase out imports through the end of 2022.

The EU did not join the ban because it is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. Gas flows to Europe have so far been steady since the invasion, which Russia calls a “special military operation”, but Moscow on Monday said that sanctions on Russian oil could prompt it to close a major gas pipeline to Europe.

Existing disruption to oil trade, caused by traders steering clear of Russian supplies due to concern they may unwittingly fall foul of sanctions imposed on Russia, is likely to worsen after the US ban, traders said. Buyers will also be concerned about the kind of reputational hit that Shell took at the weekend for buying Russian oil.

Shell said earlier it would stop buying oil from Russia and cut links to the country entirely. Shell's decision came days after it faced a hail of criticism for buying Russian oil at a steep discount — a transaction that two weeks ago would have been routine — underlining how Moscow's pariah status is growing even in a market it used to dominate.

Russia exports about seven million barrels per day of crude and refined fuel — about 7 per cent of global supply.

“Redirecting trade flows takes time. It creates dislocation in the market,” said Roger Diwan, vice president of financial services at S&P Global. “The more you do have this type of rerouting and we don't know where the volumes are going, the physical world starts to get gummed up.”

The new sanctions could leave more cargoes already on the water struggling to find buyers, analysts said.

As Mr Biden announced the US ban, there were 34 cargoes of Russian oil aboard 26 ships headed to the US, most of which was fuel oil but included 3.2 million barrels of crude, said energy strategist Clay Seigle, citing Vortexa data.

One US trader said that when it comes to trading Russian oil, the situation was “getting untenable".

Goldman Sachs estimated that more than half of Russian oil exported from ports remained unsold.

“If sustained, this would represent a three million barrel per day decline in Russian crude and petroleum product seaborne exports,” it said on Tuesday.

JP Morgan estimated about 70 per cent of Russian seaborne oil was struggling to find buyers.

“Shipping disruptions in the Black Sea have brought trade deals with the country to a virtual standstill,” the bank said on Tuesday.

BCA Research analysts also said some private companies were boycotting Russian energy, but it saw less of an impact so far.

“Estimates vary but about 20 per cent of Russian oil exports could be affected so far,” BCA said and added that Russian crude could still make its way to markets such as China.

Kpler said there were signs a growing number of cargoes were going to sea unsold.

In 2021, energy was the most imported product by the EU from Russia, accounting for 62 per cent of total EU imports, or the equivalent of about $108 billion.

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

Teams

India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami

South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second

RESULTS

%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E5pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAl%20Hazeez%2C%20Saif%20Al%20Balushi%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5.30pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EShams%20Gate%20Tower%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ES%20Sudani%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Hamad%20Al%20Marar%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Al%20Bahr%20Towers%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AF%20Musannef%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Capital%20Gate%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shugga'A%20Baynounah%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Nisren%20Mahgoub%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEtihad%20Towers%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAF%20Maqam%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fairmont%20Marina%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETempesta%20D'Oro%2C%20Xavier%20Ziani%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Zimbabwe v UAE, ODI series

All matches at the Harare Sports Club:

1^st ODI, Wednesday, April 10

2^nd ODI, Friday, April 12

3^rd ODI, Sunday, April 14

4^th ODI, Tuesday, April 16

UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed

The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors

Power: Combined output 920hp

Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic

Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km

On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025

Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nag%20Ashwin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPrabhas%2C%20Saswata%20Chatterjee%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20Amitabh%20Bachchan%2C%20Shobhana%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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