Liz Truss on course to win Tory race despite fresh tax policy questions

Top pollster says only a 'spectacular' mishap would let Rishi Sunak back into leadership contest

Liz Truss will win unless she 'fouls up in some spectacular fashion', says a respected pollster. AFP

Liz Truss will be the UK’s next prime minister unless she “fouls up in some spectacular fashion” in the last two weeks of the Conservative leadership contest, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has said.

Sir John Curtice told The Times he would be “extraordinarily surprised” if Ms Truss fails to defeat her rival Rishi Sunak when results are announced on September 5.

The confident prediction came despite fresh scrutiny of Ms Truss’s economic policies after gloomy budget figures raised doubts about her tax-cutting promises.

The government borrowed about £4.7 billion ($5.6bn) more than expected in July alone, the Office for National Statistics said, calling into question the £30bn of so-called fiscal headroom that Ms Truss is relying on to fund tax cuts.

Asked whether Ms Truss’s sums still added up, one of her supporters, Conservative MP Jake Berry, said on Friday that the headroom could rise because of economic growth generated by tax cuts.

“It is my view that Liz Truss’s plan to cut taxes, to help ordinary working families, is the right one to create economic growth,” he told Sky News.

Tax and spending has emerged as the key dividing line in the context, which is playing out against the backdrop of the highest inflation in 40 years and growing concerns over how British households will cope this winter.

Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, has put her focus on tax cuts, contrasting her promises with the tax increases overseen by Mr Sunak during his two years as chancellor of the exchequer.

Mr Sunak has described Ms Truss’s plans as unfunded and said he would prioritise targeted support for people who struggle to pay their bills in the winter.

Rishi Sunak has staked out a more cautious policy on tax cuts than his rival Liz Truss. EPA

Ms Truss was separately accused of showing her “true colours” in a resurfaced policy paper in 2009, co-written by her, which called for deep spending cuts including lower pay for doctors and the end of universal child benefit.

Her campaign distanced itself from the paper after it was unearthed by TalkTV, saying Ms Truss did not support all the ideas of her co-authors.

But Labour Party deputy leader Angela Rayner said: “Liz Truss’s track record shows her true colours … out of touch and out of step with the public.

“Her desperate attempts to distance herself from her own views will fool no one.”

The contest is nearing its end with the ninth out of 12 Tory hustings set to take place in Manchester later on Friday.

Conservative leadership race — in pictures

Candidates Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings at Wembley Arena, London. This was the final hustings attended by Tory Party members who will vote for the new leader and next prime minister. EPA

Liz Truss addresses Conservative Party members at Wembley Arena. AP

Mr Sunak puts forward his case to be leader while speaking at Wembley Arena. Bloomberg

Mr Sunak visits his family's old business, Bassett Pharmacy in Southampton, while on the campaign trail. Reuters

Ms Truss speaks to staff at Condimentum Ltd at the Food Enterprise Park in Norwich. Getty Images

A Rishi Sunak supporter at a hustings event in Norfolk. PA

Mr Sunak greets people at a leadership hustings in Manchester. Bloomberg

Ms Truss poses for a selfie with a supporter as she arrives for the event in Manchester. Getty

Rishi Sunak looks through the sights of an anti-tank missile launcher, supplied to Ukraine, during a visit to the Thales Defence System plant in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP

Liz Truss at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event in Belfast. Getty

Liz Truss meets supporters before a hustings in Perth, Scotland. Getty

Rishi Sunak speaks during a campaign visit to Cluny Castle in Inverurie, Scotland. Getty

Police hold back protesters outside Perth Concert Hall, Scotland, where Conservative leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were speaking. PA

A mural showing the two leadership contestants appears on a wall in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP

Rishi Sunak during a visit to St John's Wood Synagogue, north London. PA

Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings in Cheltenham. EPA

Rishi Sunak during a hustings event in Cheltenham. Reuters

Liz Truss speaks to scientists during a campaign visit to a life sciences laboratory at Alderley Park in Manchester. PA

Rishi Sunak during a campaign hustings in Darlington, England. Bloomberg

Liz Truss meets party members before she speaks at the Darlington campaign hustings. Getty

Rishi Sunak arrives for the Darlington hustings. Getty

Liz Truss plays pool during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters

Rishi Sunak looks at a book with Teddy Openshaw, 4, as his father, Henry, looks on after a Conservative leadership campaign event in Ribble Valley, Lancashire, England. Getty

Liz Truss plays table tennis with former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters

Liz Truss with supporters at a campaign event in Solihull, England. Reuters

Rishi Sunak attends a campaign event held by his party in Bexhill, England. Reuters

A protester is removed as Ms Truss speaks during the Conservative Party leadership hustings in Eastbourne. Bloomberg

Mr Sunak speaks at an event in Edinburgh. PA

Ms Truss leaves the hall in Exeter, south-west England, after her speech to a Conservative Party membership hustings. Getty

Mr Sunak speaks at the University of Exeter in south-west England. AP

A supporter of Ms Truss at a Conservative Party hustings in Exeter, south-west England. Getty

Ms Truss at a hustings event at the Pavilion conference centre at Elland Road in Leeds. PA

Mr Sunak in Salisbury watching a screening of the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final between England and Germany at Wembley stadium. England won 2-1 in extra time. PA

Ms Truss before the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final at Wembley stadium in London. AFP

Mr Sunak meets Tory members at Fontwell Park Racecourse. Reuters

Ms Truss at an event in Dereham, Norfolk. AFP

Mr Sunak in Ropley, near Winchester, Hampshire. PA

Ms Truss speaks as Conservative Member of Parliament Tom Tugendhat looks on at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event at Biggin Hill Airport. Getty

Ms Truss on the campaign trail in Woodford Green, on the outskirts of London. Reuters

Mr Sunak at a Conservative Party hustings event in Leeds. AFP

Ms Truss speaks at the hustings event in Leeds. AFP

Sunak and Truss-themed souvenirs at a stand during the Leeds hustings event. Reuters

Ms Truss, and her mother, Patricia, arrive for the hustings event. Getty

Ms Truss poses with supporters in Morley, England. Getty

Mr Sunak delivers a speech during a campaign event in Newmarket. AFP

Ms Truss and Jake Berry, MP for Rossendale and Darwen, during a visit to a broadband interchange company in Leeds. PA

Mr Sunak answers questions as he takes part in the hustings in Leeds. AFP

Ms Truss speaks at an event at a private house with members of the Conservative Party in Woodford Green. PA

Ms Truss and Mr Sunak pose for a picture before a BBC leadership debate at Victoria Hall in Hanley. Getty

Ms Truss addresses Mr Sunak during the televised debate. Getty

Mr Sunak, with daughters Krishna and Anushka, and wife Akshata Murthy, during a visit to Vaculug tyre specialists at Gonerby Hill Foot, Grantham. PA

Ms Truss speaks to people while campaigning in Marden. Getty

Ms Truss celebrates after being named, along with Mr Sunak, one of the final two candidates in the race to become the UK's next prime minister. PA

Mr Sunak outside his campaign office in central London. EPA

Ms Truss outside Downing Street in London. Reuters

Rishi Sunak meets Conservative Party members and activists, in Teesport, Redcar. Reuters

Conservative leadership candidates Mr Sunak, Ms Truss, Kemi Badenoch, presenter Julie Etchingham, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt during 'Britain's Next Prime Minister: The ITV Debate' in London. EPA

Ms Badenoch arrives at Here East studios in Stratford, east London, before a live television debate. PA

Mr Sunak arrives at a London event to launch his campaign to be the next Conservative Party leader and UK prime minister. Reuters

Mr Tugendhat appears on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA

Ms Badenoch, Ms Mordaunt, Mr Sunak, Ms Truss and Mr Tugendhat before the live television debate. PA

Ms Mordaunt arrives for the launch of her Conservative leadership campaign at the Cinnamon Club in Westminster. PA

Ms Truss speaks at the launch event for her campaign to become the next leader of the Tory Party and Britain's prime minister, in London. EPA

Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi, one of the candidates who has been knocked out of the race, giving a speech at the Churchill War Rooms. PA

Former leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt appearing on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA

Sajid Javid attending the launch of his campaign to be Conservative Party leader and prime minister, at the Cinnamon Club in London. He has since been knocked out of the contest. PA

Rehman Chishti is interviewed after announcing his bid to become the next prime minister. Mr Chishti is no longer in the race. Getty

Mr Tugendhat speaking at the launch of his campaign. PA

Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith arrive for the Truss campaign launch event. Getty

Former leadership candidate Attorney General Suella Braverman at the Churchill War Rooms in central London. PA

Supporters of Mr Sunak wait for his arrival ahead of the campaign launch. Bloomberg

Mr Tugendhat makes a speech at the launch of his campaign. PA

Mr Javid mops his brow while launching his campaign. Getty

Ms Truss leaves for work after her announcement that she would be running for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Getty

Ms Truss made her pitch to Manchester voters by promising to revive plans for a so-called Northern Powerhouse rail link, after they were watered down by the previous government in which she served.

She said the “defining mission” of her government would be to increase economic growth by cutting taxes and using post-Brexit freedoms to deregulate the economy.

Mr Sunak meanwhile published a plan for young people including help to buy property with cheaper mortgages and reforms to education such as “boosting the prestige” of vocational courses.

Voting ballots were sent out in early August and many of the party’s roughly 200,000 members are believed to have voted already, with polls showing Ms Truss in a commanding lead.

Whoever is declared the winner on September 5 will take over from Boris Johnson as prime minister the following day.