Russia has failed to achieve a single strategic objective of its initial war plan 100 days into to the invasion of Ukraine, British intelligence suggests.
President Vladimir Putin’s army failed to take control of Kyiv in the early days of the war due to “false planning assumptions and poor tactical execution”, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said in an update on Friday.
After weeks of a stalling advance on the capital, Moscow ordered its forces to retreat from towns and villages around Kyiv and redirected resources to the eastern Donbas region.
As the invasion reached the grim milestone, the MoD said Russia was only now showing signs of “achieving tactical success” on the ground, and is likely to have the entire Luhansk region under its control within two weeks.
“Today marks the 100th day since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the MoD tweeted.
“Russian forces failed to achieve their initial objectives to seize Kyiv and Ukrainian centres of government. Staunch Ukrainian resistance and the failure to secure Hostomel airfield in the first 24 hours led to Russian offensive operations being repulsed.
“Following the failure of the initial plan, through false planning assumptions and poor tactical execution, Russia adapted its operational design to focus on the Donbas."
The ministry said Moscow's forces were "achieving tactical success" in the eastern region, where they had "generated and maintained momentum and currently appear to hold the initiative over Ukrainian opposition".
“Russia controls over 90 per cent of Luhansk Oblast and is likely to complete control in the next two weeks," the MoD said. "Russia has achieved these recent tactical successes at significant resource cost, and by concentrating force and fires on a single part of the overall campaign.
“Russia has not been able to generate manoeuvre or movement on other fronts or axes, all of which have transitioned to the defensive.
“Measured against Russia’s original plan, none of the strategic objectives have been achieved. For Russia to achieve any form of success will require continued huge investment of manpower and equipment, and is likely to take considerable further time.”
Death toll in conflict unknown
The death toll of the war in Ukraine remains unknown but it is estimated that tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers have died since President Putin launched the full-scale invasion on February 24.
In Mariupol alone, officials have reported more than 21,000 civilian deaths. Severodonetsk, a city in Luhansk which has become the focal point of Russian aggression, has seen about 1,500 casualties, regional mayor Serhiy Gaidai said.
Much of the city had fallen to Russian forces, Mr Gaidai admitted this week.
Such estimates include those killed directly by Russians and those who succumbed to secondary effects such as hunger and sickness as food supplies and health services collapsed.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents, including a decree recognising two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, during a ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin said on February 21, 2022, he would make a decision "today" on recognising the independence of east Ukraine's rebel republics, after Russia's top officials made impassioned speeches in favour of the move. AFP -
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pictured on February 22 after Russia ordered troops into two Moscow-backed rebel regions of Ukraine. AFP -
Russian military equipment crosses the Crimea border checkpoint. AFP -
People use a subway station as a bomb shelter in Kharkiv, Ukraine. EPA -
A traffic jam in Kyiv on February 24. Russian troops entered Ukraine while President Zelenskyy addressed the nation to announce the imposition of martial law. EPA -
Emergency services tend to an injured man after bombings hit the town of Chuguiv, Ukraine. AFP -
Firefighters tend to a fire after bombings in Chuguiv on February 24. AFP -
Protesters show support for Ukraine in Times Square, New York, on February 24. EPA -
Ukrainian National Guard servicemen take their positions in central Kyiv on February 25. Reuters -
Helena and her brother Bodia from Lviv at the Medyka pedestrian border crossing in eastern Poland on February 26. AFP -
People desperate to leave Ukraine try to board a train at the railway station in Lviv on February 27. Oliver Marsden for The National -
Svyatoslav Yurash, 26, a lawmaker from Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party, poses with his assault rifle as he patrols downtown Kyiv on February 27. AFP -
Mark Goncharuk, a young boy from Kyiv, leaves his father behind as he travels with the rest of his family towards the border on February 27. Reuters -
A pro-Russian militia serviceman in the Luhansk region, Ukraine, on February 27. Reuters -
A Ukrainian serviceman and his dog look at smoke from a burned petroleum storage depot after a Russian missile attack near Kiev on February 27. EPA -
Children with cancer are evacuated to the basement of the oncology centre used as a bomb shelter in Kyiv on February 28. AFP -
A woman in Kyiv looks at empty supermarket shelves after the curfew was lifted on February 28. Reuters -
People in support of Ukraine hold an anti-war protest outside the Russian Embassy in Mexico City on February 28. Reuters -
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Kyiv on March 1. Reuters -
Destroyed military vehicles in the town of Bucha, Ukraine, on March 1. Reuters -
Members of a Ukrainian civil defence unit pass new assault rifles to the opposite side of a blown up bridge on Kyiv's northern front on March 1. AFP -
Kirilo Trantin comforts an elephant at Kiev Zoo on March 1. AP -
Stanislav says goodbye to his two-year-old son David and wife Anna after they boarded a train that will take them to Lviv, on March 3. AP -
People take cover on the floor of a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 4. AP -
A flare lands at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine during shelling on March 4. EPA -
Messages are posted by visitors on a board in support of Ukraine, inside the Ukrainian pavilion at Expo 2020 Dubai on March 4. AFP -
Ukrainians try to flee the country by crossing the Irpin River on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 5. AP -
Ukrainian territorial defence fighters Valeriy, right, and Lesya during their wedding ceremony near Kyiv on March 6. EPA -
Russian policemen detain a participant in an unauthorised rally against the Russian special operation in Ukraine, in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on March 6. EPA -
US President Joe Biden announces a ban on US imports of Russian oil and gas on March 8. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a videoconference meeting with government members at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on March 10. EPA -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, right, and Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba before their meeting during the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey, on March 10. EPA -
An explosion tears a hole in the side of an apartment building after a Russian tank fired a rocket in Mariupol on March 11. AP Photo -
Yana Hladiychuk of Ukraine UKR looks on with a 'Stop War' message on her face after the women's pole vault on day two of the World Athletics Indoor Championships Belgrade 2022 on March 19. Getty Images -
In this picture taken on March 18, 109 empty prams and baby baskets are seen outside the Lviv city council during an action to highlight the number of children killed in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. AFP -
Six-year-old Milana, who is recovering from leg injuries sustained after a Russian rocket hit her house on February 28, killing her mother, reacts to volunteers dressed as clowns at a children's hospital in Kyiv on March 19. Getty Images -
People clean a room in an apartment building destroyed during an air raid in Kyiv on March 21. Reuters -
A firefighter works at a residential district that was damaged by shelling in Kyiv on March 23. Reuters -
Smoke billows from a fire on what Ukrainian Ministry of Defence says is a Russian ship at the port of Berdiansk on March 24. Reuters -
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, US President Joe Biden, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Belgium's Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and leaders of the US-led military alliance pose for a family photo at Nato Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 24. Reuters -
This general view taken on March 30 shows fire and smoke lighting up the night sky, east of Kharkiv. AFP -
Women sew camouflage fabric for homemade military bullet proof vests and flak jackets in Mykolaiv on March 31. Oliver Marsden for the National -
A theatre destroyed in the southern port city of Mariupol on April 3. Reuters -
Women stand in their robes as smoke rises in the background after shelling in Odesa, Ukraine, on Sunday, April 3. AP -
President Zelenskyy in the town of Bucha, northwest of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, on April 4. AFP -
A woman carries her cat as she walks past buildings destroyed by Russian shelling in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on April 5. Reuters -
Ukrainian servicemen sing a patriotic song amid buildings destroyed during fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in Borodyanka on April 5. AP -
A firefighter works at the site of burning fuel storage facilities damaged by an air strike in Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, on April 6. Reuters -
Pope Francis holds a Ukraine flag sent to him from the Ukrainian town of Bucha during the weekly general audience in the Paul VI Audience Hall, Vatican City, on April 6. EPA -
Photos of people are seen next to a destroyed apartment building on April 9 in Borodianka. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and Mr Zelensky in central Kyiv on April 9. AFP -
A booby trap found by locals near their home in the village of Zalissya village, Ukraine, on April 12. EPA -
Yehor, 7, holds a toy rifle next to destroyed Russian military vehicles near Chernihiv on Sunday, April 17. AP -
A man takes a selfie in front of a destroyed Russian tank in the village of Andriivka, Ukraine, on April 17. AFP -
Destroyed structures in Irpin, Ukraine, on April 8. Getty Images -
A sign saying 'children' on the windscreen of a car with bullet holes in Irpin on April 19. AFP -
An armoured convoy of pro-Russian troops moves along a road in the southern port city of Mariupol on April 21. Reuters -
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy poses for a picture with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in Kyiv on April 24. Reuters -
A Ukrainian serviceman looks at a Russian ballistic missile's booster stage that fell in a field in Bohodarove, eastern Ukraine, on April 25. AFP -
Lithuanian musician Darius Mazintas plays a piano in front of the Central House of Culture, destroyed during Russia's invasion, in the town of Irpin on April 26. Reuters -
A woman cries as she takes part in a rally in Kyiv on April 27 demanding international leaders organise a humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of Ukrainian military and civilians from Mariupol. Reuters -
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visits Borodianka on April 28. AFP -
People wait in a car to be processed at a reception centre for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Monday, May 2. AP -
Anton Gladun lies on his bed at the Third City Hospital in Cherkasy, Ukraine, on Thursday, May 5. AP -
Patron, a dog trained to search for explosives, during demining works at the Gostomel airfield near Kyiv on May 5. EPA -
A woman covers her ears from the sound of mortar fire as people queue to collect pensions from a postal delivery van that reached the frontline despite the ongoing conflict in Mayaky, eastern Ukraine, on May 6. AFP -
Service members of pro-Russian troops fire from a tank near the Azovstal steel plant in the southern port city of Mariupol on May 5. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier inside the ruined Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol on May 7. AP -
The statue of Ukrainian philosopher Hryhoriy Skovoroda stands in the damaged Hryhoriy Skovoroda Literary Memorial Museum in Skovorodynivka, Ukraine, on May 7. EPA -
First lady Jill Biden receives flowers from Olena Zelenska, wife of Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, outside a public school in Uzhhorod, Slovakia, on May 8. Reuters -
Bono and The Edge sing during a performance for Ukrainian people inside a subway station in Kyiv on May 8. Reuters -
An explosion at the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol on May 11. Reuters -
Russian paratroopers on a BMD-4 infantry fighting vehicle in Kharkiv on May 11. EPA -
Sasha, left, 4, and his sister Ksenia, 8, in a basement shelter in Lysychansk, eastern Ukraine, on May 15. AFP -
A controlled detonation of explosive devices near Borodianka, Ukraine, on May 17. Reuters -
People stand amid newly-made graves at a cemetery in Staryi Krym outside Mariupol on May 22. Reuters -
A view shows the destroyed Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol on May 22. Reuters -
Russian Sgt Vadim Shishimarin listens to his translator during his court hearing in Kyiv on May 23. The 21-year-old soldier pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian. AP -
President Zelenskyy on a screen at the opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on May 23. Reuters -
A red poppy in front of a destroyed residential building in Mariupol on May 31. AFP -
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is discussed during the 152nd session of the Ministerial Council of the Gulf Co-operation Council in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on June 1. EPA
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that up to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying in combat every day, with about 500 more being wounded.
Russia’s last publicly released figures for its own forces came on March 25, when a general told state media that 1,351 soldiers had been killed and 3,825 wounded. Ukraine and western observers, however, say the real number is much higher.
