UK economic growth will be dragged back by the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and soaring inflation over the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the fund downgraded its UK growth forecast for the year to 3.7 per cent, from the 4.7 per cent it predicted in January.
The IMF had previously downgraded its growth projection, having said in October it expected a 5 per cent rise.
It came as the IMF also cut its global growth outlook for 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent.
“Global economic prospects have been severely set back, largely because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine,” the fund said.
“This crisis unfolds even as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic.
“Even before the war, inflation in many countries had been rising due to supply-demand imbalances and policy support during the pandemic, prompting a tightening of monetary policy.”
The IMF said the war will “slow economic growth and increase inflation”, creating a more challenging environment as economies recover from the health crisis.
It said it expects that inflation will weaken spending in the UK and Europe.
“In the United Kingdom, consumption is projected to be weaker than expected as inflation erodes real disposable income, while tighter financial conditions are expected to cool investment”, it said.
The downgrade comes after the UK recorded 7.4 per cent growth last year as pandemic restrictions were eased.
The prediction for UK economic growth next year was also sharply downgraded, with the IMF reducing its 2023 forecast to 1.2 per cent from 2.3 per cent in January.
The IMF highlighted that price rises caused by the invasion, including for oil, gas, metals, wheat and corn, have resulted in surging food and fuel prices that will have a greater impact on lower-income households.
As a result, the fund said it now projects that inflation will “remain elevated for much longer” than previously expected.
The IMF said: “The risk is rising that inflation expectations drift away from central bank inflation targets, prompting a more aggressive tightening response from policymakers.”
In the UK, consumer price inflation hit 7 per cent in March. It is expected to remain significantly above the Bank of England’s target rate of 2 per cent.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
If you go
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
Cherry
Directed by: Joe and Anthony Russo
Starring: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo
1/5
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
SUZUME
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