President Vladimir Putin's threats of a nuclear strike have not been backed up by the weapons being sent to Russia's battlefield forces in Ukraine, according to defence experts .
Three days after the invasion, the Russian leader announced that his “deterrence” nuclear forces were to be placed on a “special mode of combat duty” as a means of deterring Nato’s direct involvement in Ukraine.
While Russia has a large arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles on constant high alert, there is no intelligence to show its tactical weapons are on a newly special footing, said Pavel Podvig, head of the Russian nuclear forces project at the Chatham House think tank
“It appears that there was nothing there that would indicate a really heightened state of alert,” he said. “There are no Iskander missiles roaming around with nuclear warheads and there are no aircraft sitting on tarmac ready to take off.”
If Russia were to fire a nuclear weapon, it would probably use one of the vehicle-mounted Iskander-M missiles that is capable of firing a 50-kiloton warhead at a target up to 500 kilometres away.
But the weapon would have to be armed first, requiring the Strategic Missile Forces to open special ammunition bunkers to retrieve the weapon, potentially alerting western intelligence.
To date, it appears that there are no “visible steps” of weapons being removed, Dr Podvig told a Chatham House webinar.
“As I understand it, that hasn't been done. There is no nuclear button on the table that someone could push and order a launch.”
He suggested Mr Putin’s messaging had been “largely political” to deter Nato involvement.
But a Kremlin-backed television station carried a comment on Tuesday from its regular contributor Igor Korotchenko, who urged commanders to arm units with tactical nuclear weapons in response to a trade blockade.
“What should be Russia’s response? Tactical nuclear weapons as battlefield weapons. Clearly, two brigades of the Iskander missiles should be equipped with special munitions.”
In response, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that Russia should “stop this dangerous, irresponsible nuclear rhetoric”.
“Let there be no doubt about our readiness to protect and defend allies against any threat anytime … Russia must understand that it can never win a nuclear war,” he told reporters before a Nato leaders' summit in Brussels, Belgium.
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A firefighter works at a residential district that was damaged by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A woman removes pieces of broken glass from a shop window after a bombing in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
Residents clean the street outside apartments damaged by shelling, in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A man walks at a residential district that was damaged by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Rescuers work at the site of buildings damaged by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Launch of missiles by the coastal missile system 'Bastion' on infrastructure facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from an undisclosed position in Crimea. As a result of a strike with long-range precision weapons, an arsenal with weapons and military equipment of Ukrainian troops in the village of Orzhev, 14 kilometres north-west of the city of Rivne, two Tochka-U launchers near Kiev, and eight anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed. EPA -
Pictures lie amidst the rubble of former teacher Natalia's house which was was hit in a military strike, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A Ukrainian serviceman rests at his position in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
A hug for a child at the railway station in Przemysl, near the Polish-Ukrainian border, as Ukrainian refugees make their way out of the war zone. AFP -
Displaced Ukrainians on a Poland-bound train bid farewell at Lviv, western Ukraine. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen rest in Kharkiv. AP -
A car wrecked and burnt by shelling in a street in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
A member of pro-Russian unit in uniform without insignia handles a mortar round at a weapons depot near Marinka, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. Reuters -
The aftermath of shelling in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. EPA -
Nurses in tears after Russian shelling of a psychiatric hospital in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine. AFP -
Candles and lights form a giant peace sign during the Avaaz vigil in front of the European Council and Commission buildings in Brussels, Belgium. AP -
A wrecked car in a ruined street in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
Rescue workers at an industrial building damaged by an air strike in Kyiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
The monument to the Duke of Richelieu, one of the founders of the city of Odesa, is covered by sand bags. Near by, a placard shows the building before the Russian invasion. EPA -
People clean up a room in an apartment building in Kyiv destroyed in an air raid, as Russia presses on with its invasion of Ukraine. Reuters -
An instructor shows citizens how to fire the weapon during a shooting training session in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian troops hurl stun grenades at demonstrators protesting against the invasion, in Kherson, Ukraine. Reuters -
Ukrainian servicemen stand guard at a military checkpoint in Kyiv. AFP -
Ukrainian refugees Sasha Alexandra and Olena embrace shortly before being allowed to cross into the United States to seek asylum in Tijuana, Mexico. They fled their city of Dnipro this month and travelled to Germany before flying to Mexico. AFP -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a broadcast speech in Kyiv, calling on citizens to 'drive the occupiers out'. EPA -
An unexploded rocket in a cemetery in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine. AFP -
A portrait of a young woman who died during a Russian attack, next to her fresh grave in the Mykolaiv cemetery. AFP -
Tents set up for Ukrainian refugees inside a train station in Bucharest, Romania. AFP -
Workers cover a sculpture outside the home of Lviv National Opera to protect it from damage amid fighting in Ukraine. Reuters -
Olena, the mother of Denys Snihur, a 25-year-old soldier killed by Russian shelling in the northern town of Ovruch, mourns him at his funeral in Lviv. Reuters -
All that is left of a shopping centre after shelling in Kyiv. AP -
Civilian volunteers attend a Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces training camp in Brovary, north-east of Kyiv. AP -
Refugees at a temporary accommodation centre in a school gymnasium in Taganrog, Russia. EPA -
Oil storage tanks burn in Chernihiv, Ukraine, in a satellite image from Maxar Technologies. EPA -
President Joe Biden discusses the US response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the Business Roundtable CEO Quarterly Meeting. EPA -
The wreck of a Russian military vehicle near Kharkiv. EPA -
Firefighters work at the site of a shopping centre bombing in Kyiv. Reuters -
Seven-year-old Amellia Anisovych, a refugee from Ukraine, sings the Ukraine national anthem at the start of a fund-raising concert in Lodz, Poland. Amellia became known for singing a song from the film 'Frozen' in a bomb shelter in Kyiv. AP -
People queue at the National Stadium in Warsaw to apply for ID numbers that will entitle them to work and receive free health care and education in Poland. AP -
Checkout tills are damaged at a supermarket in a shopping centre that was damaged in a bombing in Kyiv. Reuters -
Cars are damaged at the site of a bombing at a shopping center in Kyiv. Reuters -
A woman comforts a boy while refugees wait for Ukrainian police to check their papers and belongings in Brovary, Ukraine. AP -
A refugee family sit in front of a tent at a temporary shelter offered by the Free Christian Church in Uszka, Hungary. Getty Images -
Firefighters carry a ladder across the debris following Russian shellings that destroyed the Retroville shopping mall in Kyiv. AFP -
A rescuer inside a shopping mall damaged by an airstrike in Kyiv. Reuters
Sir Lawrence Freedman, a respected military strategist, told Chatham House that if Mr Putin faced “humiliation and embarrassment” in Ukraine, “he doesn't have that many options”.
It was difficult to understand Mr Putin’s state of mind and “his grasp of the situation that he's put his country into and how determined he would be to avoid that humiliation”.
He added that despite being devastating, nuclear weapons are “not game-changing … not least because it's hard to contain their effects when you've got forces close to each other".
Dr Podvig agreed that Mr Putin’s rationality was questionable — meaning that there is “a chance, however small, of this escalating into really serious nuclear exchange”.
