Hurricane Maria killed 2,975 people in Puerto Rico, according to the results of a long-awaited independent investigation commissioned by the government of the US island territory.
After nearly a year of controversy over the true toll of the 2017 monster storm, the governor of Puerto Rico said the new estimate would now be considered the official death toll.
“I’m giving an order to update the official number of deaths to 2,975,” governor Ricardo Rossello said at a press conference.
“Although this is an estimate, it has a scientific basis.”
The Puerto Rican government’s long-standing official death toll from Maria had been just 64.
For a more accurate assessment, Mr Rossello commissioned the independent study from George Washington University.
The study tracked excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria from September 2017 to February 2018, and found the toll was 22 per cent higher than the number of deaths that would have been expected during that period in an average year, without such a deadly hurricane.
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“The results of our epidemiological study suggest that, tragically, Hurricane Maria led to a large number of excess deaths throughout the island,” said principal investigator Carlos Santos-Burgoa, a GWU professor of global health.
“Certain groups – those in lower income areas and the elderly – faced the highest risk.”
A separate study by Harvard University earlier this year estimated that about 4,600 people had died in the three months following the storm.
Authors of the latest report described it as “the most rigorous study of excess mortality due to the hurricane done to date”.
It analysed death certificates and other mortality data for the six-month period. Excess deaths were estimated with the help of mathematical modelling that compared post-hurricane deaths to the expected number based on historical patterns, and adjusted for age, sex and migration from the island.
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A woman prays in front of hundreds of shoes that were displayed in memory of those killed by Hurricane Maria in front of the Puerto Rican Capitol, in San Juan. Hurricane Maria, which pummeled Puerto Rico in September 2017, is likely responsible for the deaths of more than 4,600 people, some 70 times more than official estimates, US researchers said Tuesday. Ricardo Arduengo / AFP -
A child illuminates hundreds of shoes at a memorial for those killed by Hurricane Maria, in front of the Puerto Rico Capitol, in San Juan. Puerto Rico's Institute of Statistics announced that it has sued the US territory's health department and demographic registry seeking to obtain data on the number of deaths following Hurricane Maria as a growing number of critics accuse the government of lacking transparency. Ramon Espinosa / AP Photo -
A sign reads "4645" near empty shoes outside the Capitol building in this aerial photograph taken during a protest against the government's reporting of the death toll from Hurricane Maria in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Xavier Garcia / Bloomberg -
A woman holds a placard that reads in English "genocide" in front of hundreds of shoes that were displayed in memory of those killed by Hurricane Maria in front of the Puerto Rican Capitol, in San Juan. Ricardo Arduengo / AFP -
View of a Puerto Rican flag placed on a pair of shoes among hundreds displayed in memory of those killed by Hurricane Maria in front of the Puerto Rican Capitol, in San Juan. Ricardo Arduengo / AFP -
Shoes are displayed at the Capitol to pay tribute to Hurricane Maria's victims in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Alvin Baez / Reuters -
Candles sit inside pairs of shoes displayed outside the Capitol building during a protest against the government's reporting of the death toll from Hurricane Maria in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Xavier Garcia / Bloomberg -
A woman walks among hundreds of pairs of shoes displayed at the Capitol to pay tribute to Hurricane Maria's victims in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Alvin Baez / Reuters
The team also identified flaws in the system that may have led to previously under-reporting deaths, including lack of communication and poor training for doctors on how to certify deaths in disasters.
Mr Rossello told El Nueva Dia newspaper that the findings, "in my opinion, demonstrate the catastrophe that we always warned Maria had been, and of course the insufficiency of the standard protocols that we had".
The governor said he would sign an executive order to create a committee to examine the recommendations from GWU researchers and find ways to put them into practice.
Hurricane Maria pummelled Puerto Rico, wreaking widespread devastation and causing $90 billion in damages.
It is ranked as the third-costliest cyclone in the US since 1900.
In comparison, the death toll from 2005’s Hurricane Katrina – the costliest hurricane in US history – was far lower, and estimated at 1,833.
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Then and now: Puerto Ricans struggle to recover
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Rafael Reyes holds a printed photo of him taken on October 7, 2017. The 41-year-old father and husband has been living with his in-laws and says he plans to rebuild his home with US federal assistance. All photos by Ramon Espinosa / AP Photo -
Roberto Figueroa Caballero holds a printed photo taken on October 5, 2017. Figueroa, who found a job at a pizzeria, aims to rebuild his home. Figueroa's dog was not allowed to go with him to a donated apartment where he lives now, so he visits his property daily to feed and care for him. -
William Fontan Quintero and his wife Yadira Sostre pose with a printed photo of them taken on September 30, 2017, when they sat amid the rubble of their home destroyed by Hurricane Maria. "We don't have time to build anything safe without help," said Quintero. -
Arden Dragoni holds a printed photo taken on October 5, 2017. The unemployed construction worker and security guard is currently separated from his family while his wife and his children live in a subsidised apartment, and he lives with his father. "The hurricane brought us many calamities but my lesson was to value my family from my heart," said Dragoni. -
Blanca Rivera and Eduard Rodriguez pose with a printed photo of them that was taken on September 30, 2017 of them sleeping in their car. The couple said authorities rejected their request for financial help to rebuild, so they sold their car to build a room next to his mother's house. -
A printed photograph taken on October 7, 2017 sits at the same spot where Puerto Rican National Guards delivered food and water to desperate residents. For two months, stranded residents came to this spot for supplies. -
A printed photograph taken on September 28, 2017 shows people bathing on the highway after Hurricane Maria destroyed people's homes. Today motorcyclists ride by in Naranjito, Puerto Rico. -
A printed photograph of a jeep crossing a river on October 7, 2017 sits placed on a new bridge that stands above the spot where the print was taken. -
Luis Cosme poses on the roof of his new home as he holds a printed photo taken on October 1, 2017 showing him on his property destroyed by Hurricane Maria. -
A printed photo taken on September 29, 2017 showing police lifting the coffin of officer Luis Angel Gonzalez Lorenzo, who was killed in the hurricane. The local police force of Aguadilla and Aguada is down by about a dozen officers since the storm, due to resignations and retirements. -
Juana Sostre Vazquez holds a printed photograph of her taken after Hurricane Maria destroyed her home. Last year's storm ripped Sostre's wooden home off its foundation in the central mountain highlands. -
A printed photo taken on October 17, 2017 showing a US army helicopter transporting material to repair the Guajataca Dam. Repairs continue today.
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The previous findings by Harvard University blamed most deaths after Hurricane Maria on interruptions in medical care because of power outages and blocked or washed-out roads.
Households went for an average of 84 days without electricity, 64 days without water and 41 days without mobile telephone coverage after the storm.
Puerto Rico stopped publicly sharing its data on hurricane deaths in December 2017.
