MONTBELLO, COLORADO // Leslie Lewis calls out to a white-haired couple walking into the Safeway supermarket, "Have you registered to vote yet?" The pair wander over and admit they have never voted before.
"I'm 65," Sharon Ferguson said. "And I never saw a reason to vote until now." Ms Lewis's team begin their sales pitch: "With an election this close," said Janice Wilson, another volunteer, "you can really make a difference this time." That is no understatement. With four weeks to go, and the race between the presidential hopefuls, Barack Obama and John McCain, neck and neck, pollsters and pundits predict first-time voters will be the wild card in one of the closest US elections in history.
Thirteen million more US citizens cast a vote for president in 2004 than in 2000 - many of them voting for the first time. Several states reported unprecedented voter registration numbers. In the 2008 primaries, voter turnout increased more than 120 per cent, and few, if any pollsters, predicted it. The general election promises to beat that record, although the race is so close, analysts say it is hard to predict which party the first-time voters will benefit.
The Obama campaign has mobilised thousands of grass-roots volunteers, such as Ms Lewis and Ms Wilson, who have registered record numbers of new voters. "I have never done anything like this in previous elections," Ms Wilson said. "It feels like we are doing our part and it's so important." Montbello, a predominantly African-American and Latino community north of Colorado's state capital, Denver, has 40,000 unregistered voters, a fact that prompted the Obama campaign to target this community.
Blacks and Latinos have had traditionally low turnout numbers in US elections, a trend an African-American candidate may help change. Ms Lewis said more than 60 per cent of the 100 people her team has registered will be first-time voters. "One woman said she thought this was the most important election in her lifetime," Ms Lewis said. "Another told us she was tired of the 'old boys club' in Washington, high gas prices and the fact that nothing ever changes."
So far in this campaign, new voters - especially young people and minorities - have given Obama a margin of victory in key caucuses such as the state of Iowa. But analysts have said Republicans are masters at getting out the last-minute vote. "Before Obama is given an edge, we must caution that Republicans are better able to register themselves than are lower-income Democrats," writes Michael McDonald, an elections analyst at George Mason University in Virginia.
George W Bush won Colorado in the past two elections, although the state now has a Democratic governor and many pundits believe it could tip towards Mr Obama on Nov 4. A recent Zogby poll in Colorado gave Mr McCain a wafer thin lead of 47.5 per cent over Mr Obama's 45.5 per cent. Meanwhile, Gallup reported this week that half of registered voters nationwide now favour Mr Obama for president, while just 42 per cent back Mr McCain.
Democratic campaign officials admit privately that they are concerned that some white registered Democrats will not vote for a black candidate when they get in the voting booth. They also say Latino and African Americans tend to register, but do not bother to actually vote. Those phenomena may not affect this vote. During the primaries, Mr Obama actually did better during some primaries and caucuses than he did in the polls.
Ms Lewis admitted that her next challenge will be making sure the people her team registered actually turn up on polling day. Outside the Safeway in Montbello, voters on both sides of the political divide said it was the candidates in this election who inspired them to make their first trip to the polling booth. "I have been listening to US politicians since I came to this country and they all sounded the same," said Zoumana Cisse, a Nigerian immigrant who has not voted before. "Obama is the first one who I believe will really bring change, and I am not going to miss this chance."
Sharon Ferguson said Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor and Mr McCain's running mate, had won her over. "Palin inspired me to vote," Ms Ferguson said. "She has not been contaminated by Washington and I just think she has a fresh view on everything." gpeters@thenational.ae
