Few names in US policy circles have become as synonymous with the Syrian uprising as that of the last US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford. His 2011 visit to Hama, where people poured on to the streets to protest against Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, was seen as a pivotal moment in the uprising, and by the Assad regime as a provocation. Mr Ford’s visit and criticism of Syria’s crackdown on protests led to what US officials described as credible threats on his life and, ultimately, his departure from Damascus later that year.
Now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, Mr Ford offered a sobering outlook on the conflict in an exclusive interview with The National, saying Mr Al Assad had won and might never be held accountable.
Q: Every time we have talked about Syria in the last year, the Assad regime would be making more gains. Where do you see the war now? Has the regime prevailed?
A: Yes. The war is winding down little by little. Assad has won and he will stay [in power]. He may never be held accountable, and Iran will be in Syria to stay. This is the new reality that we have to accept, and there isn’t much we can do about it.
So you’re saying the rebels have basically lost and have no chance of coming back?
Unless the foreign governments that in the past have backed elements of the Free Syrian Army are prepared to send money, weapons - including surface-to-air missiles - and provide the kind of military advisers that the Syrian Democratic Forces are receiving against ISIL, it would be impossible [for the rebels] to defeat Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies. And even if those foreign governments did that, it would be a long war that probably ends in a stalemate instead of an Assad victory.
Is that why we see regional pressure on the Syrian opposition to offer concessions on Assad’s future in government?
It’s an acknowledgment that the military situation is strongly in favour of Assad, Russia and the Iranians, and that it is impossible to roll it back.
How will a more confident Assad operate in Syria?
I was very struck by what [Syrian deputy foreign minister] Faisal Mekdad said recently [calling the upcoming provincial elections in the Kurdish region ‘a joke’]. His statement falls in line with what Assad himself believes and confirms they will not accept elections in north-eastern Syria. Added to that is the Syrian government's consistent effort to destroy civilian governance structures in the suburbs of Damascus.
The Syrian government cannot and will not accept local administrations or decentralisation, despite the fact that the Russians keep talking about it. I never met a Baathist in the Arab world who liked the idea of decentralisation, not in Iraq, not in Algeria, not in Syria.
So if they won’t accept decentralisation or federalism, what changes do you see the regime accepting?
Maybe they change the prime minister or few cabinet ministers and claim it is reform. But will they change the elements of the security state? Of course not.
_________________________________________________________
Read more:
The question of reconstruction could determine Assad’s political destiny
Qassem Suleimani claims Iran has 'upper hand' in region
What ISIL's rise in 2014 tells us about Al Qaeda's potential in Syria today
__________________________________________________________
Do you see the regime going for a full military victory?
Yes, they are already bombing targets in Homs and Jobar. The regime ignores the Russian de-escalation zones when they have a military advantage. Sooner or later they will go back to the south to take Deraa, or Idlib. It might take two or four years, but they can’t accept other governments - local or foreign - to control these places. It is clear that the Russian-sponsored ceasefires will not end it. Assad ignored it in Wadi Barara, and while Moscow may complain in private, it won’t penalise him.
But to what extent is Assad dependent on Russia and Iranian militia forces?
He needs the Iranian militias and the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] leaders. But Iran is not trying to restrain Assad in these offensives in Ghouta and Homs. Iran has no incentive to back the ceasefires, and the war has brought them [Assad and Iran] closer.
How will those in the West adjust, do you see the Europeans reopening their embassies in Damascus?
The Europeans will consider what’s in their interest. They may see one in security cooperation, though it isn’t clear to me that the Syrian government can help very much on the salafi-jihadi front. Assad has a history of manipulating those groups. But to pursue that interest, they don’t need to have an embassy in Damascus. Intelligence cooperation can happen without having an embassy. Politically, there will remain some difficulty in France, Germany, Britain and even Italy with opening embassies when the Syrian government has committed war crimes as evidenced by the UN.
How about economically?
The sanctions imposed by the EU and the US Congress limit what these countries can do legally in Syria. They can’t fund reconstruction or do trade. The intel cooperation may happen, but economic openness is very unlikely. It’s even difficult for the US to sell medical equipment to Syria.
The US Congress is not anywhere near repealing sanctions. If anything, the concern about Iran in Syria makes it more likely that the US will be even tougher, because now Israel is getting involved.
Do you see Assad becoming another Omar Bashir, the president of Sudan?
Probably. Bashir cannot visit Western Europe or North America, he can go to Moscow or some of the Gulf countries. Assad may go to China, Iran, maybe India. If there is an arrest warrant put out for him, however, that would limit his movement.
How big is Israel’s concern about Iran in Syria?
Israel’s concern is growing about Iranian presence in Syria for two reasons. Firstly, you have tens of thousands of pro-Iranian fighters [Iraqis, Afghanis, Lebanese, Pakistanis], and they are not going home after this settles. And if there is another Hizbollah-Israel war, a lot of these fighters are battle-hardened and would reinforce Hizbollah in any new war against Israel.
Secondly, the increased Russian air presence in Syria and Hizbollah’s deployments near the border are of big concern to Israel. It’s both the combat air operations and the new surface-to-air missile batteries the Russians have deployed in western Syria, as well as Russia’s presence at Khmeimim airbase.
The Israelis used to fly with no worry over Syria, but now their whole calculus has changed. The shift in the dynamic in Syria has made the situation worse for Israel.
How about the Kurds? You said before they shouldn’t rely on the US to protect them after ISIL is defeated.
After ISIL is booted out of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, there is a high likelihood that the Iranian militias and Assad would start an offensive against the Kurds and will not respect the Rojava ceasefire. In that case, the Americans won't use troops to defend the Syrian Kurds. There is no appetite for this among the American public. Donald Trump - similar to Barack Obama - wants to avoid involvement in foreign civil wars. Turkish president [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan will be happy with an Assad offensive, and the Kurds would be making a terrible mistake thinking the US will come and save them.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
HOSTS
T20 WORLD CUP
2024: US and West Indies; 2026: India and Sri Lanka; 2028: Australia and New Zealand; 2030: England, Ireland and Scotland
ODI WORLD CUP
2027: South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia; 2031: India and
Bangladesh
CHAMPIONS TROPHY
2025: Pakistan; 2029: India
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Andor
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tony%20Gilroy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDiego%20Luna%2C%20Genevieve%20O'Reilly%2C%20Alex%20Ferns%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%205%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates
Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.
Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.
Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.
Favourite Movie: Mona Lisa Smile
Favourite Author: Kahlil Gibran
Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')
Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021
Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.
Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.
Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.
Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.
Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.
Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.
Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”
Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI.
Fund-raising tips for start-ups
Develop an innovative business concept
Have the ability to differentiate yourself from competitors
Put in place a business continuity plan after Covid-19
Prepare for the worst-case scenario (further lockdowns, long wait for a vaccine, etc.)
Have enough cash to stay afloat for the next 12 to 18 months
Be creative and innovative to reduce expenses
Be prepared to use Covid-19 as an opportunity for your business
* Tips from Jassim Al Marzooqi and Walid Hanna
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The five pillars of Islam
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
CREW
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERajesh%20A%20Krishnan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETabu%2C%20Kareena%20Kapoor%20Khan%2C%20Kriti%20Sanon%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
Empires%20of%20the%20Steppes%3A%20A%20History%20of%20the%20Nomadic%20Tribes%20Who%20Shaped%20Civilization
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKenneth%20W%20Harl%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHanover%20Square%20Press%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E576%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Scores in brief:
Boost Defenders 205-5 in 20 overs
(Colin Ingram 84 not out, Cameron Delport 36, William Somerville 2-28)
bt Auckland Aces 170 for 5 in 20 overs
(Rob O’Donnell 67 not out, Kyle Abbott 3-21).
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wes%20Ball%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Owen%20Teague%2C%20Freya%20Allen%2C%20Kevin%20Durand%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A