BEIRUT // Prosecutors at a UN-backed tribunal have started presenting evidence that may point to Syrian complicity in the assassination of Lebanon’s top Sunni statesman.
The trial chamber of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) decided this month to hear the testimony of more than a dozen political witnesses.
They include politicians, journalists and advisers close to Rafik Hariri who will speak about how relations broke down between the former premier and Syrian president Bashar Al Assad in the months before the assassination.
“Let us not be coy about it: the prosecutor now is putting his case on the basis of Syria being behind the assassination of Rafik Hariri,” defence lawyer Iain Edwards told the court before the judges agreed to include the evidence. “Is Bashar Assad going to be formally named as a co-conspirator in the killing of Rafik Hariri? Rustom Ghazaleh? Are they going to be added to the indictment?” he asked, referring to Syria’s intelligence chief in Lebanon at the time of Hariri’s killing. “We are entitled to know.”
The tribunal is trying in absentia five members of Hizbollah accused of complicity in the 2005 bombing that killed Lebanon’s charismatic billionaire former prime minister.
The fresh focus on Syria comes after the investigation has for years stayed away from the involvement of Damascus in the attack that killed Hariri and 21 others.
Fingers initially pointed to the Assad regime as being the culprit behind the massive explosion that targeted Hariri’s motorcade. While the initial investigation stopped short of directly accusing Syria, it said the regime’s intelligence service had thoroughly infiltrated Lebanon and the plot was so intricate and complex that it could not have been conducted without the knowledge of Syrian and Lebanese officials.
In the intervening years, however, Syria’s role took a backstage as leaks about the investigation started highlighting Hizbollah’s alleged involvement. The indictment, made public in the summer of 2011, accused four Hizbollah operatives of complicity in the attack, and a fifth party supporter was added to the indictment last year.
The suspects included Mustafa Badreddine, a top military commander related to Imad Mughniyeh, Hizbollah’s military chief who was assassinated in Damascus in 2008.
Prosecutors relied on a massive tranche of telecommunications data to indict the suspects. The data allegedly shows how they tracked Hariri until his death, the purchase of a Mitsubishi van that contained the bomb, and the preparation of a false claim of responsibility for the attack.
But prosecutors never gave a motive for why five members of Hizbollah would want to kill Hariri. His Future Movement and Hizbollah were planning to run in joint parliamentary lists in some districts during elections slated for mid-2005. Hariri also enjoyed close relations with Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah at the time.
But prosecutors are now saying that the political motive for the crime will be revealed in the testimony of the political witnesses, who will describe the breakdown in relations between Hariri and Mr Al Assad and the subsequent creation of an opposition movement aimed at rolling back Syria’s influence in Lebanon.
Marwan Hamade, a Lebanese MP and former minister close to Hariri, was the first political witness to testify in court last week. His testimony centred around two crucial meetings between Hariri and Mr Al Assad during which the Syrian leader ordered Lebanon’s premier to back the reelection of Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syria general to the Lebanese presidency.
Mr Hamade told judges that Mr Al Assad had threatened to “break” Lebanon over Hariri’s head, and that Druze leader Walid Jumblatt had advised the prime minister to resign and leave Lebanon for his personal safety.
Mr Jumblatt himself may testify before the court, and has indicated his willingness to do so. Hariri’s successor, former prime minister Fouad Siniora, will also testify.
Testimony by the witnesses is expected to continue next week.
But it remains unclear how prosecutors plan to link the estrangement of Mr Al Assad and Hariri to the actions of the men suspected of carrying out the bombing. Their whereabouts is unknown and Hizbollah has vowed not to hand them over.
Prosecutors argued that the conspiracy took place in tandem with political developments. The plot allegedly began a month after an August 2004 meeting between Mr Al Assad and Hariri, and after the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 ordering the departure of all foreign forces from Lebanon and the disarmament of all militias. This was seen as a threat to Syria’s military presence in the country and the weapons of its ally, Hizbollah.
They also said the plot rapidly gained pace after a meeting between Hariri and Syria’s chief of military intelligence in Lebanon, Rustom Ghazaleh, in January 2005.
Defence lawyers revealed in a hearing this month that prosecutors were seeking to include a telephone number belonging to Mr Al Assad in court documents, and they were also seeking to link a telephone network used by the alleged commanders of the assassination plot to Hizbollah.
Prosecutors have not indicted any Syrian officials so far, nor have they explicitly said they plan to do so. Still, defence lawyers have called on prosecutors to lay out their theory of Syrian complicity in an amended indictment, and to explicitly say if they plan on formally accusing Syrian officials in the case.
“This ghost of the Syrians is coming out of the cupboard,” said Philippe Larochelle, a lawyer for one of the suspects in the case, at a hearing earlier this month.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
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Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
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