Alliance by Iraqi prime minister builds base and deepens rift

Opponents united in efforts to stop PM's bid for second term.

BAGHDAD // A deal bringing the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, a step closer to retaining power highlights the political rifts splitting the country.

In winning the support of the Sadrist movement last week, Mr al Maliki increased his chances of holding on to the premiership for a second four-year term. With elections taking place seven months ago but no new administration in place, Iraq's political parties have already broken the world record for the amount of time taken to form a new government. Should Mr al Maliki retain power, he may find himself in charge of a country so bitterly divided over his personal leadership that it is ungovernable, some political leaders warn.

While his alliance with the Sadrists means Mr al Maliki need only enlist Kurdish support to secure the required parliamentary majority, it also has had a galvanising effect on his opponents. Even former members of the National Alliance, which Mr al Maliki heads, are now seeking to form a counter bloc, a coalition that would be united by little more than a trenchant refusal to see him remain as prime minister.

The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Fadila Party and the Badr organisation, all part of the National Alliance - the grand Shiite coalition formed after the election - insist they will not support Mr al Maliki. Instead, they are now in negotiations with his arch-rival Iraqiyya, the group headed by Ayad Allawi, which narrowly defeated Mr al Maliki at the ballot box in March, but with too small a margin to be decisive.

"We do not accept Mr al Maliki as a candidate for prime minister," said Hassan al Shammri, the head of Fadila. He said the group had not been invited to the critical meeting last week at which the alliance nominated the incumbent for the premiership. "We are now trying to negotiate with other parties, including Iraqiyya, to form a government with them," he said. "As prime minister, al Maliki failed to build a good administration and we will not accept the same failures again."

A governing coalition needs to control at least 163 of the 325 seats in parliament. Iraqiyya holds 91 seats, Mr al Maliki has 89, the Sadrists 39, ISCI and Badr combined have 18 seats and Fadila has six. The Kurdish parties control 51 seats. ISCI, which ran on a joint election platform with the Sadrists, has yet to make a formal announcement on its position, but Hussein al Fatlawi, a leading ISIC member of parliament, said there was no possibility it would support Mr al Maliki. "We prefer to go into opposition. We would now like to be in serious negotiations with parties like Iraqiyya and Fadila."

He warned that the Maliki-Sadrist alliance heralded the start of the "real" political crisis in Iraq. In a move that only increased an already confused political picture, Hadi al Ameri, a leading figure in the Badr organisation, had taken part in the meeting that endorsed Mr al Maliki. Ali Shbir, another leading Badr member, said Mr al Ameri's presence did not mean the group supported the endorsement.

"Hadi al Ameri was not representing Badr at the meeting, whatever he said does not represent us as a group, just him as an individual." Mr Shbir said. It was "possible" that the Badr group would now join an alliance with Iraqiyya, Fadila and ISCI, he said. The Kurdish bloc commands enough seats to secure either Mr al Maliki, or an alliance of his rivals, control of the government. Talks are now under way with Mr al Maliki, said Mehsin al Sadoon, a Kurdish MP. But he stressed no deal had been done, and he would not rule out the group joining an anti-al Maliki alliance led by Iraqiyya.

"We have 19 demands that we have given to al Maliki to discuss with him," he said. "We stand an equal distance between all the other parties involved in the political process. " Kurdish demands, including that they be given the extra-constitutional power to collapse any government they join if it makes decisions they dislike, have thus far been rejected by the other factions. Iraqiyya, a nationalist bloc that won votes from Sunnis and Shiites, insists that as election winner it retains the right to form the government. It continues to refuse to join any administration led by Mr al Maliki. That means any government he forms would be made up of Shiite Arabs and Kurds without any significant Sunni Arab representation. Similar circumstances after the 2005 elections helped fuel a widespread anti-government insurgency, with Sunni Arabs as its backbone.

Alia Unseif, an Iraqiyya MP, said the group had formally invited ISCI and Fadila to enter into a partnership with it. She called the NA's nomination of Mr al Maliki for prime minister dangerous. "We won the election. It's our right to form the government. The Sadrists and al Maliki cannot steal away the rights of all the Iraqis who voted for us." The regional powers in the Middle East, as well as the United States, have called for a broad-based coalition government in Iraq.

Hani Ashour, a senior Iraqiyya official, who warned Iraq was now on the path "to a new dictatorship", said he felt "completely desperate" and had little real hope that Mr al Maliki's bid for a second term as prime minister could be stopped. "There is no real chance for negotiations with the other parties after the National Alliance nominated Mr al Maliki. Now all the talks are about cutting deals for the control of ministries and powerful positions in the military."