For the sake of peace in Syria, European states should adopt a new strategy that concedes the reality of President Bashar Al Assad remaining in power for the foreseeable future. Hassan Ammar / The Associated Press
For the sake of peace in Syria, European states should adopt a new strategy that concedes the reality of President Bashar Al Assad remaining in power for the foreseeable future. Hassan Ammar / The AssShow more

Focus on devolving powers rather than removing Assad: report



Current ceasefire efforts in Syria are doomed to failure unless European states focus on devolution rather than on removing president Bashar Al Assad, a new report says.

While Mr Assad’s continued rule is a bitter pill to swallow, the report by the European Council on Foreign Relations says that there is no alternative if peace is to be achieved in Syria.

“Assad’s continued rule offends the European sense of justice, but Europeans unfortunately have no other choice if they want to bring some peace to Syria,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, the author of the report.

However, Mr Barnes-Dacey believes there may be a “small window of opportunity” to strike a deal with Mr Assad in which he would agree a devolution of power — a significant step down from his ambitions for total coercive control.

Speaking exclusively to The National, Mr Barnes-Dacey said: "It is very clear that Assad wants to regain control of every inch of Syria. But he nonetheless faces both significant capacity constraints, as well as the reality of foreign backing for different spheres of influence across the country.

“This means that at the moment, he can’t wrest back control of all of Syria. And that gives outside players a degree of leverage to shape a deal.

“What I’m questioning is whether there is an opportunity to do a deal with Assad that concedes his nominal control over all of Syria, in exchange for him granting a degree of local autonomy, on the basis of devolution, in the remaining opposition zones of control.”

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The alternative, according to Mr Barnes-Dacey, is for the international community to insist that Mr Assad relinquishes control altogether — something that he says would never succeed.

“Assad is obviously still in a strong position and you’re never going to be able to extract really significant concessions out of him.

“If the basis of the deal is that Assad has to step down, or that he has grant so much local authority that the state moves towards break-up, there is no chance that he will agree. He will simply: ‘I will wait you guys out, until you eventually leave.’”

Comment:  The price civilians had to pay for Assad's 'victory'

Given the desperate humanitarian crisis facing the Syrian population, and the fact that the alternative is a continued attempt by Mr Assad to wrest back total control, Mr Barnes-Dacey argues that this is the best potential option. “It’s a compromise,” he added.

The paper also suggests an opening for European action given the lack of a political strategy underpinning Russian and US-led de-escalation efforts.

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Read more: Refugee crisis deteriorating rapidly as 3.5 million children are left without education 

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It urges European members of the International Syria Support Group — the EU, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK — to forge a joint European position, which focuses on injecting viable political vision into the negotiations.

“No one is leading on the political tract at the moment,” Mr Barnes-Dacey said. “There is this Russian and American-led effort to create local ceasefires at the moment, but they are detached from any strategic vision about what that means politically.”

Hassan Hassan: The map of the Syrian war is being redrawn, but don't draw the wrong conclusions from recent regime gains

“The Europeans are increasingly realistic and know that there has to be a change in tack.”

Mr Barnes-Dacey believes that French president Emmanuel Macron’s renewed focus on Syria and support for de-escalation efforts make France the natural leader of this initiative.

“If there is going to be any European push, it has to come out of Paris,” he said. “The British are too preoccupied with Brexit, and no other European state has the political clout to take a lead on this issue.”

Mr Barnes-Dacey is fully aware that the path he outlines is “difficult and uncertain”. He also acknowledges that there are many people who would oppose his suggestion.

“Of course, for Syrians who have lived through the pain and suffering, it’s self-evident that there will be pushback — and understandably so. It’s simply too unpalatable for many of them to accept," he said.

“But the fact remains that no alternative exists at the moment. Assad is still in place, and he has to be part of the solution. The challenge that policymakers face today is to work within that context.”

“The international community faces a fork in the road,” he said. “They can continue to battle on in a scenario in which the odds increasingly favour the regime. Or they can cut a deal with Assad which could open the door towards some sort of sustained de-escalation of tensions.”

He added: “Without a political track, the current ceasefires will surely collapse into renewed violence.”

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German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

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Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Australia 2-1 Thailand

Australia: Juric 69', Leckie 86'
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Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.