Current ceasefire efforts in Syria are doomed to failure unless European states focus on devolution rather than on removing president Bashar Al Assad, a new report says.
While Mr Assad’s continued rule is a bitter pill to swallow, the report by the European Council on Foreign Relations says that there is no alternative if peace is to be achieved in Syria.
“Assad’s continued rule offends the European sense of justice, but Europeans unfortunately have no other choice if they want to bring some peace to Syria,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, the author of the report.
However, Mr Barnes-Dacey believes there may be a “small window of opportunity” to strike a deal with Mr Assad in which he would agree a devolution of power — a significant step down from his ambitions for total coercive control.
Speaking exclusively to The National, Mr Barnes-Dacey said: "It is very clear that Assad wants to regain control of every inch of Syria. But he nonetheless faces both significant capacity constraints, as well as the reality of foreign backing for different spheres of influence across the country.
“This means that at the moment, he can’t wrest back control of all of Syria. And that gives outside players a degree of leverage to shape a deal.
“What I’m questioning is whether there is an opportunity to do a deal with Assad that concedes his nominal control over all of Syria, in exchange for him granting a degree of local autonomy, on the basis of devolution, in the remaining opposition zones of control.”
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Read more:
Jordan and Russia agree on success of ceasefire in southern Syria
Astana can bring temporary relief for Syria
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The alternative, according to Mr Barnes-Dacey, is for the international community to insist that Mr Assad relinquishes control altogether — something that he says would never succeed.
“Assad is obviously still in a strong position and you’re never going to be able to extract really significant concessions out of him.
“If the basis of the deal is that Assad has to step down, or that he has grant so much local authority that the state moves towards break-up, there is no chance that he will agree. He will simply: ‘I will wait you guys out, until you eventually leave.’”
Comment: The price civilians had to pay for Assad's 'victory'
Given the desperate humanitarian crisis facing the Syrian population, and the fact that the alternative is a continued attempt by Mr Assad to wrest back total control, Mr Barnes-Dacey argues that this is the best potential option. “It’s a compromise,” he added.
The paper also suggests an opening for European action given the lack of a political strategy underpinning Russian and US-led de-escalation efforts.
_________________
Read more: Refugee crisis deteriorating rapidly as 3.5 million children are left without education
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It urges European members of the International Syria Support Group — the EU, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK — to forge a joint European position, which focuses on injecting viable political vision into the negotiations.
“No one is leading on the political tract at the moment,” Mr Barnes-Dacey said. “There is this Russian and American-led effort to create local ceasefires at the moment, but they are detached from any strategic vision about what that means politically.”
Hassan Hassan: The map of the Syrian war is being redrawn, but don't draw the wrong conclusions from recent regime gains
“The Europeans are increasingly realistic and know that there has to be a change in tack.”
Mr Barnes-Dacey believes that French president Emmanuel Macron’s renewed focus on Syria and support for de-escalation efforts make France the natural leader of this initiative.
“If there is going to be any European push, it has to come out of Paris,” he said. “The British are too preoccupied with Brexit, and no other European state has the political clout to take a lead on this issue.”
Mr Barnes-Dacey is fully aware that the path he outlines is “difficult and uncertain”. He also acknowledges that there are many people who would oppose his suggestion.
“Of course, for Syrians who have lived through the pain and suffering, it’s self-evident that there will be pushback — and understandably so. It’s simply too unpalatable for many of them to accept," he said.
“But the fact remains that no alternative exists at the moment. Assad is still in place, and he has to be part of the solution. The challenge that policymakers face today is to work within that context.”
“The international community faces a fork in the road,” he said. “They can continue to battle on in a scenario in which the odds increasingly favour the regime. Or they can cut a deal with Assad which could open the door towards some sort of sustained de-escalation of tensions.”
He added: “Without a political track, the current ceasefires will surely collapse into renewed violence.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed PDK
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 820Nm
Price: Dh683,200
On sale: now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Match info
Costa Rica 0
Serbia 1
Kolarov (56')
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Specs%20
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Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 2
Rashford 28', Martial 72'
Watford 1
Doucoure 90'
The%20specs
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Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Scoreline
Liverpool 4
Oxlade-Chamberlain 9', Firmino 59', Mane 61', Salah 68'
Manchester City 3
Sane 40', Bernardo Silva 84', Gundogan 90' 1
Global institutions: BlackRock and KKR
US-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $5.98 trillion of assets under management as of the end of last year. The New York firm run by Larry Fink provides investment management services to institutional clients and retail investors including governments, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, banks and charitable foundations around the world, through a variety of investment vehicles.
KKR & Co, or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is a global private equity and investment firm with around $195 billion of assets as of the end of last year. The New York-based firm, founded by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, invests in multiple alternative asset classes through direct or fund-to-fund investments with a particular focus on infrastructure, technology, healthcare, real estate and energy.
Brief scores:
Toss: Australia, chose to bat
Australia: 272-9 (50 ov)
Khawaja 100, Handscomb 52; Bhuvneshwar 3-48
India: 237 (50 ov)
Rohit 56, Bhuvneshwar 46; Zampa 3-46
Player of the Match: Usman Khawaja (Australia)
Player of the Series: Usman Khawaja (Australia)
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
FORSPOKEN
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Starfield
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Company%20profile
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PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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