As the US and Taliban are poised to sign a breakthrough peace agreement, which will see US troops withdraw, after more than 18 years, from their longest-ever war, here’s everything you need to know:
What are the key terms of the agreement?
The final peace deal hinges on the success of a short-term agreement for a seven-day reduction in violence. The trial period is expected to begin within one week. The terms stipulate that it must be a nationwide reduction in violence against both Americans and Afghans, calling for a suspension of roadside bombs, suicide attacks, and rockets among other forms of violence.
Of note, the agreement calls for a reduction of violence, not a total cessation of violence. Operating within the understanding that some violence in the country is not Taliban-directed, Washington and the Taliban have created a line of communication that will serve as a dispute mechanism, in case any violence does occur during the seven days.
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Sergeant Jay Kenney, 26, with the 101st Airborne Division, Task Force Destiny, assists wounded Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers off the Blackhawk UH-60A helicopter after they were rescued in an air mission in Kandahar on December 12, 2010 in Kandahar province, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
An Afghan Northern Alliance fighter mans the front line against the Taliban on October 2, 2001 near Jabul os Sarache, 30 miles north of Kabul. Getty Images -
Abdullah Abdullah, chief executive of Afghanistan travelling via helicopter for the final campaign rally in Bamiyan, Afghanistan on September 25, 2019. Afghans will head to the polls on Saturday, September 28th. Getty Images -
Mustafa Tamanna, 10, son of Afghan reporter Zabihullah Tamanna, weeps during the funeral ceremony in Kabul, Afghanistan on June 7, 2016. Tamanna was killed by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by the Taliban. Getty Images -
Northern Alliance soldiers come back from the front line after a battle near Charatoy town in the north of Afghanistan on October 10, 2001. REUTERS -
A Northern Alliance fighter throwing rocks as part of a popular national game yards away from a multiple Grad missile launcher in October 12, 2001 in the Salang Gorge in Northern Afghanistan. Getty Images -
A French soldier from the 7th Mountain Regiment, part of the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) stands on a boulder overlooking Kabul during a patrol August 3, 2002 in Afghanistan. The ISAF has been patrolling Kabul since January 2002, working with the government and a new police force to prevent the violence and lawlessness that threatened to engulf the city after a U.S.-led coalition forced the Taliban from power. Getty Images -
US Marine Sgt. Jerry Brown (L) of Jacksonville, North Carolina watches over a weapons cache found during a patrol near the American military compound at Kandahar Airport in January 16, 2002 in Kandahar, Afghanistan. The Marines recovered mortars, rockets, rocket-propelled grenades and artillery rounds discovered in various caches near the base while on the patrol. Getty Images) -
Members of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry patrol through poppy fields in the village of Markhanai in May 6, 2002 in the Tora Bora valley region of Afghanistan. Getty Images -
The United States and Britain on October 7, 2001 launched a first wave of air strikes against Afghanistan. President George W. Bush said the action heralded a "sustained, comprehensive and relentless" campaign against terrorism. REUTERS -
A young Afghan girl eats a piece of bread at the Chaman refugee camp on November 8, 2001 on the Pakistan border with Afghanistan. The UNHCR has estimated that since September 11, 2001 over 135,000 Afghans have crossed the border into Pakistan, adding to the already millions of refugees living in the country. Getty Images -
Afghan opposition Northern Alliance soldiers leap over a trench as they return from front line positions after battle near the town of Charatoy in the north of Afghanistan October 10, 2001. REUTERS -
An Afghan child peeks out from the doorway of his family's home as a US Army soldier from the 101st Airborne stands guard in the eastern Afghan village of Hesarak on July 16, 2002 during what the Army refers to as a 'sensitive site exploitation' mission or 'SSE'. Getty Images -
Fred Perry, a British Royal Engineer soldier, reads the book "Black Hawk Down" inside his tent after a day of work on January 29, 2002 at the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) barracks at the Kabul airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Afghan soldiers (L) speak to a local Afghan, while a medic in the U.S. Army's 1st Battalion, 36th Infantry Regiment, Charlie Company (R) monitors a soldier who has just survived a blast from an improvised explosive device (IED) while driving a vehicle during a mission near Command Outpost Pa'in Kalay, on March 19, 2013 in Kandahar Province, Maiwand District, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Marines on a light armored vehicle prepare for patrol as an AH1W "Super Cobra" helicopter flies by on December 28, 2001 at the U.S. Marine Corps Base in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
A Norwegian ISAF (International Security Assistance Force)soldier from Recce Squadron 3 patrols on October 4, 2004 in Kabul, Afghanistan as election officials get ready for the Presidential elections. Getty Images -
Interim Afghan leader Hamid Karzai (L) is greeted by a group of Afghan military officers on his arrival to Kandahar airbase on May 04, 2002 in Southern Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Soldiers in the U.S. Army's 101st Airborne Division wade though a creek to avoid buried insurgent bombs while on patrol October 16, 2010 in Zhari district west of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
British commandos descend from a mountain observation post overlooking the beginning of the Helmand River at the Kajaki hydroelectric dam on March 13, 2007 in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province. Getty Images -
101st Airbornes 1st Sgt. Kerry Black from Westmoreland, Tennessee uses an Afghan child's sling shot on February 6, 2002 as children crowd around him while he patrols on the outskirts of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Marine Cpl. Jonathan Eckert of Oak Lawn, IL attached to India Battery, 3rd Battalion, 12th Marine Regiment works his improvised explosive device (IED) sniffing dog Bee as they secure a compound during a patrol near Forward Operating Base (FOB) Zeebrugge on October 11, 2010 in Kajaki, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Afghan refugees walk across the border into Pakistan on October 11, 2001 as they leave Afghanistan at the Chaman crossing point on the 4th day of U.S.-led air strikes against the ruling Taliban and terrorist networks in the country. Getty Images -
Anti-Taliban Afghan fighters watch several explosions from U.S. bombings in the Tora Bora mountains in Afghanistan on December 16, 2001. -
British Marines run under fire from the Taliban during a morning operation on March 18, 2007 near Kajaki in the Afghan province of Helmand. Getty Images -
Afghan Army troops prepare to board a British chinook helicopter from their base at Shorabak on March 12, 2007 in Southern Helmand province, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
British Marine Joe Harvey from Stafford, England (R), watches as British forces come under fire by Taliban insurgents on March 18, 2007 near Kajaki in the Afghan province of Helmand. Getty Images -
U.S. Army 101st Airborne 3-187 "Bravo" company soliders pass through a corn field while conducting a sensitive site exploitation (SSE) mission July 23, 2002 near the town of Narizah in Southeastern Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Scouts from 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment (Airborne), pull overwatch during Operation Destined Strike while 2nd Platoon, Able Company searches a village below the Chowkay Valley in Kunar Province, Afghanistan on August 22, 2006. US Army
The long-term peace agreement depends entirely upon these seven days. If the reduction in violence is successful, negotiations will proceed between American and Taliban negotiators with the aim of signing a new deal which includes three key points:
- The Taliban will agree not to recruit, fundraise or train international terrorists in areas they control
- The Taliban and Afghan government must begin intra-Afghan discussions with each other regarding a sustainable governance structure
- A permanent and comprehensive ceasefire is the ultimate goal of those discussions
In exchange for these terms, the Americans will agree to withdraw, in phases, all their troops from Afghanistan. An estimated 12,000 troops remain in the country.
Who are the key players?
US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is the chief negotiator on the American side, colloquially referred to as “Zal,” this is his second attempt to help US President Donald Trump finalise a peace deal with the Taliban. The Afghan-born diplomat, who serves as the main intermediary between the two groups, nearly finalised a peace agreement last year, before Trump abruptly cancelled the deal.
Details about the Taliban’s negotiators are expectedly more opaque, but the two officials that have served as public spokesmen for the group during these negotiations are Zabihullah Mujahed and the deputy head of the group’s political office Abdul Salam Hanafi.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is playing an indirect role since he was not invited to the negotiation table, despite his demands to be more involved. This partly stems from the Taliban’s refusal to recognise the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Mr Ghani has stayed abreast of all the negotiations, but ultimately, he will be expected to acquiesce to the American side’s terms. At the Munich Security Conference in February, Mr Ghani met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defence Mark Esper to discuss the terms of the agreement.
US President Donald Trump is serving as the “closer” in the negotiations, as he did in 2019. While the heavy lifting of the negotiations is being led by Mr Khalilzad, the diplomat is working on behalf of the White House, the Pentagon and the US intelligence community, who must all agree to the final terms of the deal.
What could go wrong?
Critics of the deal are sceptical it will lead to immediate peace in Afghanistan. Rather, it opens the door to discussions of peace by ending the stand-off between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
With immediate peace unlikely given the tense situation that will remain once US forces leave, critics say the deal serves as more of a US withdrawal agreement than an actual peace agreement.
If the withdrawal is accomplished, the American negotiators would have fulfilled a Trump campaign promise to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, well-timed before the presidential election in November.
Nato members are watching the negotiations closely and considering withdrawing their own forces from Afghanistan as the US looks to minimise its presence in the country.
When was the last negotiation?
An earlier bout of negotiations between the Taliban and US was expected to be finalised in September 2019, but the negotiations ended when Trump abruptly pulled out of the deal. Mr Trump cited the death of an American soldier in Kabul as his reasoning for cancelling the deal. But, during that negotiation period, other American soldiers were also killed in attacks in Afghanistan and the discussions still forged ahead despite their deaths.
In a tweet, Mr Trump said he had invited the Taliban to a “secret” meeting at Camp David, unfavourably scheduled for the weekend before the anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
This decision to bring Taliban officials to the US splintered Mr Trump's advisers, with his National Security Adviser John Bolton strongly opposing the meeting. Bolton was fired just days after the scheduled Camp David visit.
Where are the negotiations taking place?
Qatar’s capital Doha has served as the headquarters for all negotiations between the Americans and the Taliban. The negotiations have been taking place in a conference room in Doha’s Diplomatic Club and the final deal, if reached, will be signed during a ceremony in Doha, where the Taliban has a political office.
