Cyprus creeps towards peace in hopeful talks

With both sides open to settlement, leaders will engage in UN-mediated negotiations that could help Turkey achieve full EU membership

A Turkish officer checks passports next to the UN buffer zone in divided Nicosia, Cyprus.

ISTANBUL // One of Europe's longest-running conflicts, the standoff between Greeks and Turks on the divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus, may be moving towards a settlement. New peace talks starting early next month have raised the possibility that one of the key obstacles in Turkey's bid for membership in the European Union can be lifted, observers said. "Turkey's path to the EU goes through Cyprus at one point," Hasan Cemal, a pro-EU columnist, wrote in Milliyet, a daily newspaper, this month. "This is a reality." Observers have said the new round of talks on Cyprus may represent the last chance for a peaceful solution to the island's division for a long time. "If it doesn't work this time, OK, it's over," said Can Fuat Gurlesel, the head of the Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank in Istanbul. "We will know by the end of the year." Demetris Christofias, the president of the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus, the Greek part of the island, will meet Mehmet Ali Talat, the leader of the Turkish sector, on Wednesday in talks facilitated by the United Nations, the first substantial effort to reunify the island since the Greek side rejected a UN plan in a referendum in 2004. In the 45 years since the conflict between the Greek majority and the Turkish minority on the island turned violent, hopes for a peaceful settlement evaporated due to the deep distrust between the two communities. But the situation is different this time, because both Mr Christofias and Mr Talat are perceived as leaders keen on reaching a solution. Alexander Downer, the former Australian foreign minister who was recently appointed UN special envoy for Cyprus, expressed confidence after meeting the men in late July. "Developments over the past months have fostered a genuine sense that prospects have perhaps never been better to achieve a comprehensive settlement favourable to all Cypriots," Mr Downer said. Mr Talat said a settlement was possible within months. "I expect progress by the end of this year, and a solution in the beginning of 2009," Mr Talat said, according to his office in the Turkish section of Nicosia. The meeting on Sept 3 will deal with procedural issues, and a second session, planned for Sept 11, will address for the first time how to unite the two parts of the island. Cyprus has been divided since the summer of 1974, when Turkey sent in troops in response to a Greek-nationalist coup aimed at uniting Cyprus with Greece. The Turkish sector declared its independence in 1983, but the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is recognised only by Ankara. Greek Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004. "There is agreement over the fact that there will be two parliaments. But there is difference over how parliamentary elections will take place," Mr Talat said. "There is agreement over the fact that there will be political equality. But there is no complete agreement over how this will be implemented." The issue of political equality of the two sectors of the island is the key for a solution, Mr Gurlesel said. "If the Greeks say 'yes', we will have two founding states" for the new Cypriot state rather than a continuation of the republic that was created after independence in 1960, he said. So far, there is no agreement on this point. Mr Christofias told Greek Cypriot reporters the current republic "should be transformed to a bizonal, bicommunal federal state". The two parts of the island would become two zones of a new state as the "final result of the federation", Mr Christofias said. "The Turkish Cypriots consider that as the starting point." An agreement would open the way for a gradual pull back of the 30,000 to 40,000 Turkish soldiers stationed on the island, as demanded by the Greek side. "The Turkish armed forces could then present a timetable for withdrawal," Mr Gurlesel said. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, has given Mr Talat full support. "A comprehensive settlement will be possible in a new partnership [on the island], in which the Turkish Cypriot people and the [Turkish Republic] find their place as founders and equals," Mr Erdogan said during a recent visit to the Turkish sector. A breakthrough would enable Turkey, which does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus, to allow Greek-Cypriot ships to dock in its harbours. The Turkish embargo led the European Union to put eight chapters of the membership negotiations with Turkey on hold. Those chapters could be brought back into the negotiation process if Turkey lifts its ban. A solution would also remove the perpetual threat of a Greek Cypriot veto in Turkey's membership talks. As much as Mr Erdogan may hope for success in the talks between Mr Christofias and Mr Talat, his domestic critics are likely to keep the Cyprus issue on the agenda as a political stick with which to hit the prime minister. The new peace talks "have not been greeted positively everywhere", Mr Cemal wrote. "The lobby in Turkey that says 'Cyprus is slipping from our hands' has started to fire away even now." The Turkish media noted that although Mr Erdogan's government was giving full support to Mr Talat, the military leadership in Ankara was less than exuberant. Gen Yasar Buyukanit, the chief of staff of Turkey's armed forces, recently said he was "worried" about the new talks on Cyprus. "There may be peace," Gen Buyukanit said. "But it may be not just; it may not last." @email:[e-mail]