Democrats secured control of the US House of Representatives for a further two years on Tuesday, but with a potentially razor-thin majority.
The party secured 218 seats, according to The Associated Press, and could win a few more when more votes are counted.
While that assures command of the 435-member chamber, Democrats were all but certain to see their current 232-seat majority shrink after a surge of Republican voters transformed expected gains of 15 seats into losses.
“We have the gavel, we have the gavel,” said Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who seems all but certain to continue in that role. While she bemoaned Democrat losses in districts where Republican votes proved “almost insurmountable”, she said last week: “We’ve lost some battles but we’ve won the war.”
By retaining the House, Democrats will control the chamber for four consecutive years for only the second time since 1995, when Republicans ended 40 years of Democratic dominance.
Although Joe Biden won the presidential election, there was a strong chance Republicans would keep Senate control. That would force Democrats to scale back their dreams of sweeping health care, infrastructure and other initiatives, instead needing compromises with the Republicans.
As the bad news sunk in, Cheri Bustos, the Democratic representative for Illinois who led the House Democrats’ campaign committee, announced on Monday she would not seek another term leading that organisation. Democrats said privately she would have lost had she again sought the post, for which the party’s legislators vote.
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A young Joseph Biden, wearing a casual short-sleeved shirt, pictured in 1967. Twitter -
Joseph Biden, in stripes and polka dots, checks in at the office of the Secretary of the Senate on December 13, 1972. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in a three-piece suit, addresses Drexel University alumni in Pennsylvania, US, on October 30, 1974. Getty Images -
William French Smith and Joseph Biden, in classic tailoring, share a joke on October 23, 1981. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in patriotic navy, white and red, announces his intention to run for the Democratic Party's nominations for president of the United States, in Washington DC, on June 9, 1987. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a slick tux, pictured at an event on July 14, 1987. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a green tie, talks with reporters outside the NBC TV studios in Washington, DC on March 18, 1990. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in lighter hued tailoring, poses for a portrait in June 1991 in Washington, DC. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a classic '90s tie, in Washington DC, in 1997. Getty Images -
Carol Moseley-Braun, then-ambassador designate to New Zealand, is greeted at her confirmation hearing by Joseph Biden, in checked suiting, on Capitol Hill on November 5, 1999. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in shades of blue, gives a speech at a Harlem Boys & Girls Club in New York City, US, on December 4, 2000. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in a bold tie, appears on NBC's 'Meet the Press' on January 7, 2001 in Washington, DC. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, left, in a casual shirt and aviators, receives a briefing at the border village of Panmunjom, South Korea, on August 11, 2001. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in tweed, meets a female student at Ariana High School in Kabul, Afghanistan, on January 12, 2002. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in a relaxed polo shirt, is greeted by Iraq's then-interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi while visiting the capital on June 19, 2004 in Baghdad, Iraq. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in a protective vest, speaks with American and Iraqi officials during a visit to Ramadi, Iraq, on September 6, 2007. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in navy suiting, walks with former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on February 18, 2008 during a visit to Lahore, Pakistan. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in vibrant stripes, smiles during a meeting with Iraq's then-president Jalal Talabani on January 12, 2009 in Baghdad, Iraq. Getty Images -
Joseph Biden, in suave navy, leaves the Bayerischer Hof hotel during the second day of the Munich conference on security policy on February 7, 2009 in Munich, Germany. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a stone suit, poses with soldiers for a photo at Camp Victory on July 4, 2009 near Baghdad, Iraq. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a winter jacket, shares a joke with a volunteer at Whistler Olympic Park Ski Jumping Stadium on February 13, 2010 in Whistler, Canada. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in charcoal suiting, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas shake hands prior to their meeting at the Presidential compound on March 10, 2010 in Ramallah, West Bank. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in an open-necked shirt, speaks during a campaign rally at Cleveland State University in Ohio, US, on October 31, 2010. EPA -
Joseph Biden, in a striped tie, and Naomi Biden at a local restaurant on August 18, 2011 in Beijing, China. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in his signature all-blue tailoring, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel speak to the media prior to talks at the Chancellery on February 1, 2013 in Berlin, Germany. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in aviators, waves as he walks out of Air Force Two on December 4, 2013 in Beijing, China. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a cap and leather bomber jacket, visits the Demilitarised Zone on December 7, 2013 in Panmunjom, South Korea. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, wearing a splash of lilac, delivers a speech at the 51st Munich Security Conference on February 7, 2015 in Munich, Germany. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in midnight blue, visits the Melbourne Cricket Ground on July 17, 2016 in Melbourne, Australia. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in a red patterned tie, delivers an address in Sydney, Australia, on July 20, 2016. EPA -
Joe Biden experiences a traditional Maori welcome at Government House on July 21, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand. Getty Images -
Joe Biden, in pinstripes, speaks about the Cancer Moonshot initiative in Davos, Switzerland, on January 16, 2017. EPA -
Joe Biden goes blazer-less as he serves food at Dulan's on Crenshaw restaurant prior to a fundraiser in Los Angeles, California, on July 18, 2019. EPA -
Joe Biden, ditching the tie, greets supporters at a campaign event in New Hampshire, US, on February 4, 2020. EPA -
Joe Biden, in bold stripes, speaks at the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Event in New Hampshire, US, on February 8, 2020. EPA -
Joe Biden, in his seemingly favourite colour of suit, and his wife, Jill Biden, attend at his election night event at the Chase Centre in Delaware, US, on November 3, 2020. EPA
Republicans were heartened by the House results, which many believe position them for a strong run for the majority in the 2022 elections. They also bolstered their distressingly low number of women representatives, from 13 to at least 26, a record for the Republicans, according to the Centre for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, and were adding new ethnic minority legislators as well.
“The Republican coalition is bigger, more diverse, more energetic than ever before,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Republican representative for California, said the day after the election.
Democrats went into election day with a 232-197 House advantage, plus an independent and five open seats. With some races undecided, it is possible that in the new Congress that convenes in January they will have the smallest majority since Republicans had only 221 seats two decades ago.
Democrats secured the majority after AP declared three winners late on Tuesday: incumbents Kim Schrier in Washington, Tom O’Halleran in Arizona and Jimmy Gomez in California.
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Kamala Harris, then San Francisco District Attorney, poses for a portrait on June 18, 2004. AP -
San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris attends the 'Choose Or Lose Your Toys' event at the Obsolete Gallery on November 3, 2009 in Venice, California. Getty -
US President Barack Obama greets California Attorney General Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, Lieutenant Governor of California, after arriving on Air Force One at San Francisco International Airport in San Francisco on February 17, 2011. AFP -
Attorney General Kamala Harris arrives at the 5th Annual Kidstock To Benefit One Voice Scholars Programme at Greystone Mansion in Beverly Hills, California, on June 5, 2011. AFP -
Actors Hilary Swank, Sean Penn and Attorney General of California Kamala Harris attend the Cinema For Peace event benefiting J/P Haitian Relief Organisation in Los Angeles held at Montage Hotel on January 14, 2012. AFP -
Reverend Al Sharpton meets Kamala Harris for lunch at Sylvia's restaurant on February 21, 2019 in the Harlem neighborhood of New York City. Getty -
President-elect Joe Biden pumps his fist on stage with his vice-president elect Kamala Harris. AP Photo -
Democratic vice presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign stop in Detroit, Michigan on October 25, 2020. AFP
A tight majority could cause headaches for Ms Pelosi, empowering any determined group of legislators to pressure her on what bills should be considered or look like. But sometimes, a slender margin can help unify a party because its members know they must stick together to achieve anything.
Democratic moderates and progressives clash periodically, and while the moderates are more numerous, the progressives’ ranks include influential social media stars such as Democrat senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Underscoring that tension, House Democrats vented during a three-hour conference call last week in which both factions blamed the other for rhetoric and policies they said proved costly in the campaign.
“We should be honest that this was not a good outcome,” said Tom Malinowski, Democrat senator for New Jersey and a moderate freshman. He said terms like “defunding the police” hurt Democrats by making it sound like they oppose law enforcement, and said they should not speak “as if we were talking to woke progressives in neighbourhoods where 90 per cent of the votes are for Democrats”.
Pramila Jayapal, Democrat representative for Washington and a progressive leader, said that Democrats need to discuss “how we talk about some of these issues that are critical to different parts of our base”. But with moderates complaining that the GOP hurt Democrats by repeatedly accusing them of pushing socialism, Mr Jayapal said such accusations “will be used against us no matter what we say”.
Democrats believed they would pick up seats, especially in suburbs, because of a decisive fund-raising edge, President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and exasperation over the pandemic. Many Republicans and independent polls supported that expectation.
But with some races yet to be called, Democrats have not defeated a single Republican incumbent and failed to capture open Republican-held seats in Texas, Missouri and Indiana they thought they would win.
Instead, they lost at least seven incumbents: six freshmen from states including Florida, Oklahoma and South Carolina, plus 30-year veteran Democrat Collin Peterson from rural Minnesota. And while they successfully defended most of their 29 districts that Mr Trump carried in his 2016 victory, they saw stronger than expected performances by GOP candidates all around the country.
“With President Trump on the ballot, it just drove enormous turnout that was almost impossible to surmount,” said Elissa Slotkin, Democrat representative from Michigan, a re-elected freshman.
"The country has become more polarised and divided," said Gerald Connolly, Democrat for Virginia, "If you're running in alien territory, you're always at risk of failure."
So far, Democrats’ only pickups were three open seats from which Republicans retired. Two were in North Carolina, where court-ordered remapping made the districts strongly Democratic, and one was outside Atlanta.
Going into the election, Democrats envisioned strengthening their moderate wing, since most districts they seemed likely to capture were closely divided between GOP and Democratic voters. But they ended up suffering losses in that type of district, meaning it was mostly moderates who lost.
“In electoral politics, moderates are the beachfront property,” said Jim Kessler, an official with Third Way, a centrist Democratic group. “And if there’s flooding, they’re the ones that get washed away.”
Illustrating that, the Blue Dog Coalition of the most conservative House Democrats, whose membership has dwindled in recent years, lost at least six of its estimated two dozen members.
On the other hand, a handful of hard-left progressive freshmen will be coming to Congress, including Democrats Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri, who each won seats in overwhelmingly blue districts.
On the Republican side, the conservative House Freedom Caucus was hoping to grow from its approximately 30 members.
The group has tried pushing Republican leaders to the right over the years and was a consistent source of trouble for the past two Republican speakers, John Boehner of Ohio and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
