The US military's admission that it faces huge problems in Afghanistan could have come at almost any point since the Taliban regime was deposed nearly seven years ago. That it has taken so long, at the needless cost of so many lives, says much about the tragedy of this war. But by starting to acknowledge the crisis it has helped create, Washington is also laying the groundwork for a new phase in the bloodshed - one that has the potential to be the worse yet. A final throw of the dice is being made and the stakes could not be higher.
"Frankly, we are running out of time," said Adm Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, last week. Those same words should have been uttered as soon as US troops arrived in the country. Although Afghans were happy to be rid of a government that had conscripted their sons into the army and banned their basic freedoms, they were never going to trust a foreign occupier indefinitely. What has changed is that the situation has reached a state where it is impossible to ignore. Not even a US administration that has regularly displayed a breathtaking arrogance in foreign affairs can pretend all is well.
"I'm not convinced we're winning in Afghanistan," said Adm Mullen. "I'm convinced we can." On the anniversary of September 11, after another two soldiers were killed, 2008 became the grimmest year for US forces since the invasion. The 113 fatalities surpassed the 111 in all of 2007, which included one soldier shot at a meeting in Pakistan. It stands in stark contrast to the five dead in 2001 and the 30 in 2002, when victory had already been declared.
More importantly, innocent people are suffering. Air strikes and house raids have created the kind of public resentment that ultimately turns into violent rebellion. Talk of a jihad is getting louder, spreading from the south and east to areas of the country that have been relatively peaceful. According to an estimate by Human Rights Watch, at least 540 Afghan civilians were killed in fighting related to the insurgency in the first seven months of this year alone. Of those, at least 173 died during Nato or US attacks. These figures are described as "the most conservative" available.
Washington blames the escalating violence on Pakistan and whereas quiet diplomacy was previously seen as the best way forward, it now openly states that the Taliban's safe havens there must be destroyed. Rather than rely on Islamabad to carry out the task, Washington appears to have lost patience and taken matters into its own hands. George W Bush, the US president, has issued an order giving his forces the right to conduct missions in the tribal areas.
Such raids have already led to innocent deaths and caused fury among the government and people of Pakistan. This could be a sign of what is to come - a wider war that provokes mass resistance from populations naturally hostile to outside interference. If the insurgency did not already have growing support in both countries, it would have dissolved into obscurity long ago. The cause of the unrest is not so much a deep-rooted Islamic extremism, but the failure of the international community's policies in the region before and after 2001.
The United States must now deal with a crisis largely of its own making. It has detained and killed civilians, paid off militia leaders, allowed al Qa'eda to regroup, turned a blind eye to endemic corruption and spent years unquestioningly backing a military ruler across the border. "Afghanistan's success is critical to the security of America and our partners in the free world," said Mr Bush, the day before Adm Mullen's remarks. "And for all the good work we've done in that country, it is clear we must do even more."
As a result, he announced that a further 4,500 troops will soon be added to the 33,000 America currently has here. Many Afghans do not believe this is the answer. Too much emphasis is already put on the battlefield, where the war is unwinnable. Guerrilla death tolls were used as a sign of progress in Vietnam and not a lot has changed since then, despite claims to the contrary. Every day, the US-led coalition likes to issue press releases detailing how many insurgents have been killed. One recent statement put the figure at 220 for a single operation.
"While the terrorists and extremists deliberately target and murder the innocent, coalition and Afghan forces risk their lives to protect the innocent," Mr Bush said in his comments last week. The nuance is not clear in this part of the world. Afghanistan's cabinet has demanded a renegotiation of the agreements covering the presence of foreign troops and parliament has always stressed the need for talks with the Taliban.
At the moment a full-scale civil war is only being delayed, not prevented. In the meantime, trouble is spreading across the region. Now people are effectively being asked to gamble on America again, and it would hardly be a shock if they declined to accept. csands@thenational.ae
