On Tuesday evening, Nani Gopal Mahanta picked up his phone and sent a text message to a number provided by the government of Assam, in northeast India. Within three seconds, he received a response—a quick confirmation, Mr Mahanta joked, “that I am not a Bangladeshi.”
Mr Mahanta, a political scientist at Gauhati University in Guwahati, Assam’s biggest city, was checking to see if his name had been included in the state’s Register of Citizens, the first draft of which was released on New Year’s Day.
The draft is intended to identify illegal migrants from Bangladesh—people who crossed the border into Assam without permission after March 25, 1971, as well as their descendants, who have continued to live on in the state.
Descendants of illegal migrants are considered illegal in India. Even the children of legal residents don’t automatically qualify for Indian citizenship.
The 1971 date was fixed by the Assam Accord of 1985; on March 26, 1971, Pakistan had begun a military crackdown in what was then East Pakistan, now called Bangladesh. Hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis—nearly all of them Muslim—streamed into Assam during the crackdown and in the following years, stoking fear and hostility among the Assamese.
In November 2016, Kiren Rijiju, India’s junior home minister, said that roughly 20 million Bangladeshis live across India without legal residency permits. But there are no reliable estimates for the number of Bangladeshis living illegally in Assam.
By signing the Assam Accord and pledging to turn out illegal migrants, Rajiv Gandhi, then India’s prime minister, thought he was allaying Assamese resentment towards Bangladeshis taking local jobs and resources. But decades went by, and still successive governments failed to compile lists of citizens and legal residents, as promised by the Accord.
In 2014, however, the Supreme Court responded to petitions from the public and instructed the federal and state governments to begin the process of enumeration outlined by the Accord. Roughly 4,200 centres were set up across the state, to which people could bring their “legacy documents”— documentary proof that they or their families lived in Assam before 1971, or that they had come to Assam from elsewhere in India.
Of the 33 million people living in Assam, only 19 million people found their names in the first draft of the Register.
Pratik Haleja, the state’s coordinator for this project, urged people not to panic. His own name was missing from the first draft, he said on Tuesday. “People like us, whose names are not there, don’t have to do anything,” he told journalists. “The names are not there because this is a work in progress. The verification process is still on.”
This draft is only the first of several phases, Mr Mahanta told The National. "There will be more drafts, more phases. After all, this is a gigantic exercise, so it will take time. The final list is likely to come out only by the middle of next year."
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The process was sure to be time-consuming, Mr Mahanta said, in part because of the complicated nature of establishing legal residency. The rich are able to provide land-ownership records; families living in Assam for generations are able to point to old electoral rolls.
But people who have moved to Assam from elsewhere in India and who do not possess key citizenship documents like passports have to show records of their families living elsewhere.
“Some people claim that their parents once lived in Uttar Pradesh or Mumbai, for example,” Mr Mahanta said. “The Assamese government then contacts those state’s authorities to double-check these claims. Many of these authorities have not responded yet.”
But for Kishalay Bhattacharjee, the vast shortfall of names in the first draft of the Register shows how the very process of enrolment and identification is broken.
Mr Bhattacharjee, a national security expert and an associate professor at O. P. Jindal University in Sonipat, near Delhi, had once lived in Assam himself. He even owns a house there, which he purchased a couple of decades ago.
When enrolment into the Register began, he tried to find out, almost as an experiment, if he could get his name into it. “I found out I couldn’t do it. I didn’t fit the criteria that the Register demands,” he said. “So now I’m not even sure what happens to my property rights, given I still own that house.”
The majority of people, not only in Assam but across India, don’t have passports or old deeds to property, Mr Bhattacharjee pointed out. Other methods of establishing “legacy” are also dysfunctional. “They ask you to prove if you or your father voted in Assam before 1971,” he said. “But electoral rolls often miss out names. We know this. It happens all the time. So how on earth will you prove it?”
A further problem, Mr Bhattacharjee said, was the question of what will happen after the Register is completed.
“Say you find out that you have 800,000 or 900,000 people who are Bangladeshis, for example,” he said. “What are you going to do with them? You can’t deport them, because for that Bangladesh has to agree to take them back.”
At least 2,000 people suspected of being illegal migrants are being held in Assam’s six detention centres at the moment. “You can’t fill these detention centres with all these hundreds of thousands of newly identified Bangladeshis also,” Mr Bhattacharjee said.
“There’s no clear answer,” he said. “I would really like to stand in front of the Supreme Court and ask: ‘What is your Plan B here?’”
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May 9, v Malaysia
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May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
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May 20, final
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
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UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.