BEIRUT // As Turkey begins to seriously consider deepening its role in Syria’s war, it is not the continued presence of ISIL nor the Assad government’s siege of rebels in Aleppo that is driving its moves. Rather, it is what has driven much of Ankara’s Syria policy for a long time: the Kurds.
Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Thursday blamed the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria for the Ankara bombing that killed 28 people a day earlier, promising to retaliate against the group with “all necessary measures” and increasing pressure on the United States to suspend its support for what has been the most effective ground force against ISIL in the country.
However, Salih Muslim, the leader of PYD – the YPG’s political wing – denied any involvement in the attack.
Mr Davutoglu’s announcement of additional Turkish military action against the Kurdish militia was neither reactive nor sudden.
Turkey has already been shelling YPG-held areas north of Aleppo since February 13 after the Kurds captured positions of Syrian rebels who had fled a government offensive backed by Russian air strikes and later began fighting some opposition groups.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and senior Turkish officials were already trying to justify further military action against the YPG before the bomb attack.
Just hours earlier on Wednesday, Mr Erdogan said Ankara would not allow a “new Qandil” – a reference to the PKK stronghold in the mountains of northern Iraq – to sprout up along Turkey’s southern border and vowed that artillery strikes against the YPG would continue.
On Tuesday, he said that “both the PYD and YPG are organisations of the Assad regime” and urged the West not to differentiate between the PKK, ISIL and other terrorist organisations.
The tough talk against the YPG was bolstered by action, as Ankara on Wednesday allowed 500 rebels to cross its border into the rebel-held Syrian town of Azaz, which is facing an assault by a Kurdish-led alliance of fighters.
Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Yalcin Akgodan, on Wednesday called for military intervention to create a 10 kilometre deep “secure strip” of territory inside Syria to protect Azaz from Kurdish forces. The zone would rebuff efforts to “change the demographic structure” of the area, he said.
If, as Turkey says, the YPG did indeed carry out the bombing in Ankara, it would be the first time the group has launched such an attack and would be out of character.
While the PKK – the YPG’s sister organisation – has long carried out bombings and ambushes inside Turkey and is currently at war with the government, the YPG has focused its attention on Syria, where it is carving out what could become an independent Kurdish state.
The PKK and YPG are closely linked ideologically, and many PKK militants now fight under the banner of the YPG in Syria. But aware that much of the international community blacklists the PKK as a terrorist organisation and fearful that Turkey could move to crush any Kurdish movement along its borders, the YPG has been careful to stress its differences with the PKK and not provoke Turkey with attacks.
In denying responsibility, Mr Muslim, the PYD leader, said the YPG had not been attacking Turkey and did not consider Turkey its enemy.
Their efforts to distance themselves from the PKK have paid off. In Syria, the YPG has forged a close alliance with the United States even though Washington considers its sister organisation a terrorist group.
Turkey has been disapproving of the US relationship with the YPG from the start, but on Thursday Ankara took a firmer stand as Mr Davutoglu issued an ultimatum: Turkey’s allies are expected to stand against the YPG.
“Those who directly or indirectly back an organisation that is the enemy of Turkey risk losing the title of being a friend of Turkey,” he said.
Mr Davutoglu’s challenge presents the US with a dilemma.
Defeating ISIL has come to define Washington’s Syria policy and the YPG has become a cornerstone of its strategy.
As the most effective fighting force on the ground against the extremist group, the YPG has directly coordinated air strikes with the US and plays host to the small number of American special forces currently deployed in Syria.
Where the US met failure in its efforts to mould Arab rebel groups with its now defunct train-and-equip programme, in the YPG they found an eager, proficient fighting force with the ability to capture and hold territory.
However, the US also views Turkey as a key ally in fighting ISIL, despite the country carrying out just a handful of air strikes against the group and being accused of allowing the extremists to flourish through lax control of its border with Syria. By allowing the anti-ISIL coalition to use its Incirlik airbase to launch strikes, Turkey has earned itself an important role.
In backing Turkey and abandoning support for the YPG, the US would risk reversing many of the gains it has made against ISIL. But by refuting Turkey, Washington could potentially risk losing access to its airbases and land routes into Syria, as well as Ankara’s cooperation in resolving the Syrian conflict.
Caught between two allies that are vital to its mission in Syria, the US faces a decision it does not want to make. Yet the bombing in Ankara may force it to go one way or the other.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
* With additional reporting from Associated Press and Reuters
