Houses destroyed by an airstrike during fighting in Tigray in February 2022. The war created famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands. Reuters
Houses destroyed by an airstrike during fighting in Tigray in February 2022. The war created famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands. Reuters
Houses destroyed by an airstrike during fighting in Tigray in February 2022. The war created famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands. Reuters
Houses destroyed by an airstrike during fighting in Tigray in February 2022. The war created famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands. Reuters

Tigray death toll could be as high as 600,000, African Union envoy says


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Up to 600,000 people may have been killed in two years of conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, an African Union official said on Sunday.

The conflict came to an end officially on November 2 with the signing of a peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigray People's Liberation Front after two years of war.

“The number of people killed was about 600,000,” Olusegun Obasanjo, the African Union's lead mediator in the peace talks and former president of Nigeria, told the Financial Times. Around 1,000 lives per day were being saved by the peace deal, he added.

Mr Obasanjo's figures align with those of a study conducted by Belgium's Ghent university, which concluded in March 2022 that up to 500,000 people may have died as a result of the conflict. Researchers said between 50,000 and 100,000 died in direct fighting, more than 100,000 from lack of access to medical care and between 150,000 to 200,000 from starvation.

The war created famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands and displaced millions across northern Ethiopia and across the border into Sudan.

The death toll is disputed. Some Ethiopian officials say under 100,000 were killed.

“We will probably not be able to know the full number of casualties,” Daniel Bekele, Ethiopia's Human Rights Chief told the Financial Times.

“We need to be cautious about overly exaggerated death toll estimates by all sides.”

  • Redwan Hussien Rameto, second left, representative of the Ethiopian government, and Getachew Reda, second right, representative of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, sign a peace agreement regarding the African Union-led negotiations to resolve conflict in Ethiopia at the Department of International Relations and Co-operation offices in Pretoria, South Africa. AFP
    Redwan Hussien Rameto, second left, representative of the Ethiopian government, and Getachew Reda, second right, representative of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, sign a peace agreement regarding the African Union-led negotiations to resolve conflict in Ethiopia at the Department of International Relations and Co-operation offices in Pretoria, South Africa. AFP
  • Representatives from Ethiopia and representatives from Tigray attend a press conference. AFP
    Representatives from Ethiopia and representatives from Tigray attend a press conference. AFP
  • Redwan Hussien Rameto, representative of the Ethiopian government. AFP
    Redwan Hussien Rameto, representative of the Ethiopian government. AFP
  • Getachew Reda, representative of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. AFP
    Getachew Reda, representative of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. AFP
  • Former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta, left, arrives for peace talks between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan People's Liberation Front. AFP
    Former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta, left, arrives for peace talks between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan People's Liberation Front. AFP
  • Youngsters walk next to an abandoned tank south of the town of Mehoni, Ethiopia. AFP
    Youngsters walk next to an abandoned tank south of the town of Mehoni, Ethiopia. AFP
  • The airport in Bahir Dar, the capital city of the Amhara region of northern Ethiopia. AP
    The airport in Bahir Dar, the capital city of the Amhara region of northern Ethiopia. AP
  • Protestors outside the Emirates stadium in London raise awareness of conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Reuters
    Protestors outside the Emirates stadium in London raise awareness of conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Reuters
  • UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi, centre, speaks with Clementine Nkweta-Salami, right, UNHCR regional bureau director for the East, Horn and Great Lakes regions of Africa. AP Photo
    UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi, centre, speaks with Clementine Nkweta-Salami, right, UNHCR regional bureau director for the East, Horn and Great Lakes regions of Africa. AP Photo
  • A destroyed tank is seen in a field in the aftermath of fighting between the Ethiopian National Defence Force and the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces in Kasagita town, in Afar region, Ethiopia. Reuters
    A destroyed tank is seen in a field in the aftermath of fighting between the Ethiopian National Defence Force and the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces in Kasagita town, in Afar region, Ethiopia. Reuters
  • Ethiopians protest at a rally organised by the city administration against what they say is interference by outsiders in the country's internal affairs and against the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the party of Tigray's fugitive leaders, in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. AP Photo
    Ethiopians protest at a rally organised by the city administration against what they say is interference by outsiders in the country's internal affairs and against the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the party of Tigray's fugitive leaders, in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. AP Photo
  • A man waves an Ethiopian flag as he join others gathering in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during a demonstration in support of Ethiopia armed forces. AFP
    A man waves an Ethiopian flag as he join others gathering in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during a demonstration in support of Ethiopia armed forces. AFP
  • A satellite image shows the deployment of heavy weaponry in the town of Serha, Eritrea, near the border with Ethiopia's Tigray region. Reuters
    A satellite image shows the deployment of heavy weaponry in the town of Serha, Eritrea, near the border with Ethiopia's Tigray region. Reuters
  • A man gestures as he shouts during a protest at the Embassy of the United States of America in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. AFP
    A man gestures as he shouts during a protest at the Embassy of the United States of America in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. AFP
  • Workers from the International Committee of the Red Cross deliver lifesaving medical supplies into Mekelle, Tigray region, Ethiopia. Reuters
    Workers from the International Committee of the Red Cross deliver lifesaving medical supplies into Mekelle, Tigray region, Ethiopia. Reuters
  • Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, left, meets with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres at the UN headquarters. AP Photo
    Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, left, meets with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres at the UN headquarters. AP Photo
  • A convoy of trucks part of the World Food Programme (WFP) on their way to Tigray are seen in the village of Erebti, Ethiopia. The Afar region, the only passageway for humanitarian convoys bound for Tigray, is itself facing a serious food crisis, due to the combined effects of the conflict in northern Ethiopia and the drought in the Horn of Africa which have notably caused numerous population displacements. More than a million people need food aid in the region according to the World Food Programme. AFP
    A convoy of trucks part of the World Food Programme (WFP) on their way to Tigray are seen in the village of Erebti, Ethiopia. The Afar region, the only passageway for humanitarian convoys bound for Tigray, is itself facing a serious food crisis, due to the combined effects of the conflict in northern Ethiopia and the drought in the Horn of Africa which have notably caused numerous population displacements. More than a million people need food aid in the region according to the World Food Programme. AFP
  • Captive Ethiopian soldiers arrive at the Mekele Rehabilitation Centre in Tigray, Ethiopia, after a four-day journey from Abdi Eshir. All photos: AFP
    Captive Ethiopian soldiers arrive at the Mekele Rehabilitation Centre in Tigray, Ethiopia, after a four-day journey from Abdi Eshir. All photos: AFP
  • Women welcome Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters as they return to Mekele after seizing control of the city in June 2021.
    Women welcome Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters as they return to Mekele after seizing control of the city in June 2021.
  • Ethiopians who fled the Tigray conflict wait to charge their phones at Um Raquba refugee camp in Gedaref, Sudan.
    Ethiopians who fled the Tigray conflict wait to charge their phones at Um Raquba refugee camp in Gedaref, Sudan.
  • A member of the Afar Special Forces stands in front of the debris of a house on the outskirts of the village of Bisober in Tigray.
    A member of the Afar Special Forces stands in front of the debris of a house on the outskirts of the village of Bisober in Tigray.
  • People hold candles and Ethiopian flags at a memorial service for the victims of the Tigray conflict in Addis Ababa.
    People hold candles and Ethiopian flags at a memorial service for the victims of the Tigray conflict in Addis Ababa.
  • An Ethiopian refugee who fled fighting in Tigray waits behind a fence in a camp in Sudan.
    An Ethiopian refugee who fled fighting in Tigray waits behind a fence in a camp in Sudan.
  • Refugees living in a camp in Sudan after fleeing violence in Tigray.
    Refugees living in a camp in Sudan after fleeing violence in Tigray.
  • A woman walks among the remains of a destroyed factory in Ataye, Ethiopia, where more than 100 civilians died in a recent flare-up of violence.
    A woman walks among the remains of a destroyed factory in Ataye, Ethiopia, where more than 100 civilians died in a recent flare-up of violence.
  • Two members of the Amhara militia ride in the back of a pick-up truck. Amharas and Tigrayans were uneasy neighbours before the current fighting, with tension over land sparking violent clashes.
    Two members of the Amhara militia ride in the back of a pick-up truck. Amharas and Tigrayans were uneasy neighbours before the current fighting, with tension over land sparking violent clashes.
  • Militias from the Amhara region have been involved in the fighting in Tigray.
    Militias from the Amhara region have been involved in the fighting in Tigray.
  • Tens of thousands of Ethiopians gather at a rally organised by the mayor of Addis Ababa to show support for the military's efforts in Tigray.
    Tens of thousands of Ethiopians gather at a rally organised by the mayor of Addis Ababa to show support for the military's efforts in Tigray.
  • Zeleke Alabachew, farmer and militia fighter, tends to his land near the village of Tekeldengy, Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous nation.
    Zeleke Alabachew, farmer and militia fighter, tends to his land near the village of Tekeldengy, Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous nation.
  • People celebrate the liberation of opposition leaders in the city of Alamata, Ethiopia.
    People celebrate the liberation of opposition leaders in the city of Alamata, Ethiopia.
  • A family fleeing violence sit in a former classroom at May Weyni secondary school, now hosting 10,500 displaced people, in Mekele, capital of Tigray.
    A family fleeing violence sit in a former classroom at May Weyni secondary school, now hosting 10,500 displaced people, in Mekele, capital of Tigray.
  • Ethiopian refugees travel to Sudan to escape violence in Tigray.
    Ethiopian refugees travel to Sudan to escape violence in Tigray.
  • Ethiopian refugees gather to celebrate the 46th anniversary of the Tigray People's Liberation Front at Um Raquba refugee camp in Gedaref, Sudan. The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics before being ousted from their regional stronghold last year.
    Ethiopian refugees gather to celebrate the 46th anniversary of the Tigray People's Liberation Front at Um Raquba refugee camp in Gedaref, Sudan. The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics before being ousted from their regional stronghold last year.
  • An Ethiopian refugee sets up a tent in a camp in the town of Gedaref, Sudan, after being transported from the border reception centre.
    An Ethiopian refugee sets up a tent in a camp in the town of Gedaref, Sudan, after being transported from the border reception centre.
  • Pro-Tigrayan demonstrators display placards during a protest in front of the chancellery in Berlin.
    Pro-Tigrayan demonstrators display placards during a protest in front of the chancellery in Berlin.
  • The aftermath of heavy shelling in Wukro, a city north of Mekele, in Ethiopia.
    The aftermath of heavy shelling in Wukro, a city north of Mekele, in Ethiopia.

Under the peace deal, disarmament for the northern region should take place “concurrently” with the withdrawal of foreign forces that are not part of the Ethiopian national army.

The regional Amhara special forces began leaving the area last week, Ethiopia's army said. But a humanitarian worker in the city of Shire told Reuters that Amhara forces were still there in “significant numbers”. It was not immediately possible to verify the situation on the ground.

Flights between Addis Ababa and Tigray have already begun reuniting families torn apart by the war.

French and German foreign ministers cautioned Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed last week that the ceasefire needed to be accompanied with a robust accountability for alleged atrocities on both sides.

“We, Germans and French, know from our own experience that reconciliation does not happen overnight. But without the prospect of justice for the victims of crimes, reconciliation and lasting peace are not possible,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

“The question of accountability is important for us with a view to Ethiopia's future and peace process, but also towards strengthening international law,” she said following talks with the Ethiopian leader.

The ministers did not visit Tigray itself.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: January 16, 2023, 2:48 PM